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USA Today Sports Media Group
USA Today Sports Media Group
Sport
David Dorey

Better than average: Quarterbacks

The best measurement of a quarterback is how they fared against a defense relative to all other quarterbacks that also faced that defense. That removes the impact of schedule strength, because the highest game allowed by a great defense may seem average were it against a weak secondary.

The top-8 fantasy performances against each defense were arrayed and each quarterback was recorded for how often their fantasy points were in the top-8, the top-4 and highest allowed versus that specific defense last season.

Adding up those numbers yields a “better than average” (BTA) score since they are better than the average quarterback that faced a defense. It also weights the performances since a first place counts as a top-4 and a top-8.

Bottom line: This is about how well a player did against a defense relative to all the others in his position did when they faced them. This is a true measurement of how effective quarterbacks were with the schedule influences removed.

TM Quarterbacks BTA score Top 1 Top 3 Top 8
TB Tom Brady 27 6 9 12
BUF Josh Allen 25 3 7 15
KC Patrick Mahomes 23 4 7 12
LAC Justin Herbert 22 2 7 13
LAR Matthew Stafford 20 2 5 13
DAL Dak Prescott 18 1 6 11
GB Aaron Rodgers 17 1 5 11
ARI Kyler Murray 16 2 5 9
MIN Kirk Cousins 16 2 4 10
BAL Lamar Jackson 14 1 4 9
CIN Joe Burrow 14 1 4 9
PHI Jalen Hurts 12 0 2 10
SEA Russell Wilson 10 2 3 5
TEN Ryan Tannehill 10 1 1 8
IND Carson Wentz 9 0 1 8
LVR Derek Carr 9 0 3 6
SF Jimmy Garoppolo 8 0 2 6
DET Jared Goff 7 1 1 5
HOU Davis Mills 7 0 2 5
MIA Tua Tagovailoa 7 0 2 5
NE Mac Jones 7 0 0 7
ATL Matt Ryan 6 0 0 6
CAR Sam Darnold 6 1 2 3
DEN Teddy Bridgewater 6 0 1 5
WAS Taylor Heinicke 6 0 1 5
CHI Justin Fields 5 0 1 4
JAC Trevor Lawrence 5 0 1 4
NO Taysom Hill 5 0 2 3
PIT Ben Roethlisberger 5 0 1 4

The top quarterbacks are to be expected, and Tom Brady’s decision to return last year proved to be one of his best seasons. Justin Herbert was second only to Josh Allen in the number of top-8 games that shows how consistently good he was.

Kyler Murray and Joe Burrow fell a bit in this measurement. Jalen Hurts never turned in the most fantasy points allowed by a defense and only twice had a top-4 performance while playing one of the lighter schedules in 2021.

Davis Mills only started ten games as a rookie but half were in the top-8 allowed by the defense and twice he managed a top-4, all while playing in a mostly mediocre offense. That’s promising for this year.

This is the list of quarterbacks that posted the best fantasy game allowed by an opposing defense all year for 2021.

TM Quarterbacks Top 1
TB Tom Brady 6
KC Patrick Mahomes 4
BUF Josh Allen 3
LAC Justin Herbert 2
LAR Matthew Stafford 2
ARI Kyler Murray 2
MIN Kirk Cousins 2
SEA Russell Wilson 2

No surprises other than there were only three quarterbacks that produced the most fantasy points allowed by a defense more than twice. Brady, Mahomes, and Allen all proved to be true difference-makers.

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