LAS VEGAS — A major college-football rules alteration made a typically busy offseason even more hectic for Texas handicapper Paul Stone.
“I’ve been engrossed with the most significant rule change we’ve had in recent memory, with the game clock not being stopped after first downs,” he says. “How many plays will that take away?”
Forever, every first down stopped the game clock. Now, one freezes time only in the final two minutes of each half. Stone laments “the NFL-ization” of the college game.
Having tapped his experts to gauge how many plays might evaporate, his consensus projects about 10 percent. The average game last season, his records show, consisted of 141 plays.
“So if that’s cut to 126, a team favored by 20 points last year — everything being equal — shouldn’t be favored by the same 20 points in a game between the same two teams this season, because the game will be compacted.
“Fewer plays mean fewer opportunities for a greater margin of victory.”
He has made 44 bets on the upcoming season, and those fewer plays have affected his shopping.
“I’ve certainly looked at a lot of those two-touchdown-plus underdogs.”
MOVE, EVOLVE, THINK
This is no hobby for the 61-year-old Stone, who lives on the shore of Lake Jacksonville, 20 miles south of Tyler, Texas. Nearly year-round, he arises at 5 a.m., sometimes 4, and mostly works till 7 p.m.
“Always reading, consuming,” he says. “I try to accumulate a large number of miniscule advantages. Collectively, hopefully, that adds up to 5 or 6 percent more than 50 percent [winners].
“You have to always be moving, evolving, thinking. You’ve got to be price-sensitive and have multiple accounts, which go hand-in-hand.”
He maintains an exclusive clientele roster, for good reason. Among nearly 50 ’cappers, at the independent Sports Monitor of Oklahoma, Paul Stone Sports has six top-four Totals finishes over the last seven seasons, with three No. 1s.
Since late February, he has made 26 bets at shops in Bossier City, Louisiana. Typical preseason limits are $2,000, and Stone often makes maximum wagers.
However, he was eager to visit Vegas on June 12, when Circa Sports unveiled the first game Totals that he’s seen this year.
Veteran oddsman Nick Bogdanovich and young ace Connor Hower will release Vegas’s first college football lines by 11 a.m. on Sundays.
(Matt Metcalf, who had that charge, resigned recently but remains a consultant to Circa owner Derek Stevens.)
That Monday morning, Stone deposited cash at a Circa Sports satellite desk in Tuscany Suites on Flamingo. He was prepared when odds began appearing on his phone app at 10 a.m.
He executed 18 bets.
VALUE
Stone made UCLA a 13-point favorite over Coastal Carolina on Sept. 2. He had seen 15, 15.5, but he secured Coastal getting 17.
He grabbed West Virginia +20 at Penn State, also Sept. 2. He had seen 18.5s.
“Both UCLA and Penn State will have first-time quarterbacks,” Stone said by phone from Texas, three days after his Vegas venture, “so that factored into my decision to take the underdogs.”
In Orlando on Sept. 3, he nabbed LSU -1.5 against Florida State.
As we chatted, Circa Sports had hung a 3, many books had 2.5.
“I like LSU a little bit more. It’s the second year for coach Brian Kelly and quarterback Jayden Daniels, and they got better as last season progressed. I expect big things out of LSU.”
At DraftKings a month ago, he nabbed Florida +10.5 points at home against Florida State on Thanksgiving weekend.
FSU’s first-month danger games are LSU and at Clemson, with could jeopardize its playoff picture.
“The ’Noles might be a bit deflated because their primary goals are out of reach. It’ll be relative, but the Gators will improve as the season goes on. They’re at home, they’ll care about the game and they’ll be getting double digits.”
BOULDER BOOTS
Stone calls this 7½-month span between seasons Talk Time, and Prime Time, new Colorado boss Deion Sanders, has dominated.
Last offseason, new coach Brent Venables yapped all over Oklahoma.
Oklahoma (6-7), sub-.500 for the first time since 1998, allowed 30 points a game, 98th in the country.
Colorado might have been the worst Power Five team in 2022.
“But to boot all of your former players?” Stone says. “You’ll have more than 50 new players on the roster. There just aren’t that many good players in the portal.”
Stone estimates an above-average program requires 40 exceptional players. He doesn’t see even 40 mediocre Power Five players in Boulder.
Of Stone’s 29 side bets, 22 were on underdogs; in games involving Oklahoma, he’s on the other side in every one. He’s on 13 Totals, all Under.
He also played Auburn Under 6.5 victories, at +130 (risk $100 to win $130), and Colorado Under 3.5, at -150.
“In nonconference games, the Buffs get TCU and Nebraska. Colorado State is probably a win at home, but they might be favored in just one or two games.
“I just don’t see four wins on that Colorado schedule.”
