LAS VEGAS — Daniel Carlson booted a 53-yard field goal to pump the Raiders’ advantage to 17-0 early in the second quarter of Monday night’s game at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City.
That triggered a two-minute game within the game for some of the nation’s gamblers in the 32 jurisdictions with legalized sports wagering who sought an in-game Chiefs moneyline before the ads finished.
The Raiders (1-3) had already blown a 20-point lead, at home, in an overtime loss to the Cardinals. The Chiefs, meanwhile, were 3-1 and had beaten the Raiders in eight of their previous nine games at Arrowhead.
Those bettors found surprises.
I canvassed sources from coast to coast to find that a moneyline bet on Kansas City, in that hole, could have been nabbed between +180 and +275.
(Or risk $100 to win $180 on the low side, $275 on the high end.)
That surprised me as well as a friend and savvy sports bettor, a veteran of the point-spread and money-line trenches.
I inquired, Shouldn’t that be +600, maybe +800? He said, It’s the Chiefs. Still, he expected +500, at least.
By comparison, most shops had Carolina as a midweek underdog of 10 or 10.5 points Sunday at the Rams, with a Panthers moneyline around +375 to +400.
For another example, Station Casinos had Wake Forest, at home, as a 17-point favorite last Saturday against Army. The Demon Deacons’ moneyline, to win outright, was +550.
The SuperBook pegged Notre Dame as a 17-point favorite Saturday at home against Stanford, with a Cardinal moneyline of +550.
Far sweeter payoffs than roughly +200.
What gives?
THE TAX, MAN
Yes, there is a “Chiefs Tax” that favors the house.
Kansas City is elite, thus very public. So, like Notre Dame football or the Yankees or the English national soccer team, bettors pay more than they probably should to wager on them.
In that Raiders game, K.C. was a seven-point favorite. The Chiefs did roar back to win 30-29. Since 2020, when quarterback Patrick Mahomes has been favored by at least three points, he’s 12-22 against the spread.
Let’s return, though, to them trailing by 17 with 39 minutes left Monday. Someone in the risk room of a Vegas sportsbook, who preferred anonymity, confirmed that, indeed, there is a Chiefs Tax.
“Situational factors, too,” he said of that relatively low moneyline return. “There was a lot of game left, it was at Arrowhead, the Chiefs were getting the ball back after that field goal and were receiving the kickoff to start the second half.”
After Carlson’s 53-yard kick, the Chiefs scored a touchdown on their ensuing possession. Las Vegas led 20-10 at halftime. Two Raiders receivers ran into each other to end the game.
My risk-room contact (let’s call him Raskal) used another game as an example. When Oregon State trailed the Cardinal 24-16 at Stanford on Saturday, the Beavers were 7.5-point live underdogs but had 10-to-1 moneyline odds.
“But that was late in the fourth,” Raskal noted.
And the Beavers won 28-27 on Tre’Shaun Harrison’s 56-yard touchdown catch from Ben Gulbranson with 13 ticks left.
Many situational factors determine books’ in-game moneyline odds, such as venue, time remaining, public perception and ledger balance. Winning one of those wagers, however and as usual, can require immense luck.
A BEAR MARKET
First-half Unders in Bears games that returned fine dividends under Matt Nagy have flipped under rookie boss Matt Eberflus. They’re 4-2 to Over.
Team future action, meanwhile, has ballooned, as 25-1 season-opening odds on winning the NFC are now 400-1 at the Westgate SuperBook, and 60-1 Super Bowl LVII odds are 1,000-1.
To win the NFC North, the Bears’ odds have jumped from +1,000 to +4,025. To win league MVP, quarterback Justin Fields has plummeted from 60-1 to 300-1, while tailback David Montgomery has dropped from 500-1 to 1,000-1.
A MILE LOW
Betting Broncos games to finish Under continues to be a winning tactic.
The Broncos have new owners (the Walton-Penner family), a quirky new coach (Nathaniel Hackett, whom the family didn’t hire) and a new quarterback (Russell Wilson), whose irritability quotient depends on your degree of fandom.
All the ingredients for a smash soap opera.
Denver is lucky to be 2-3, but four of its five games have finished Under their total figures. Since 2018, 65.7% (46-24) of Broncos games have finished Under, according to TeamRankings.com.
Denver Under is the lone totals wager producing a success rate of at least 60% over those five seasons.
Elsewhere, on paper, an edge might lie with the Chargers (3-2, 4-1 ATS) on Monday night. They opened as six-point favorites at home against the Broncos (2-3, 1-4 ATS). However, smart midweek money, including a six-figure wager, sliced that to five at BetMGM.
BOOKS MAKING BANK
Underdogs and Unders have helped enrich the Vegas books in four of the NFL’s five weeks.
Underdogs have covered at a 60% rate (45-30-3). Unders have paid off at a 58.2% clip (46-33-1). Figures are from Vegas Stats & Information Network senior scribe Dave Tuley.
Which reminds me of South Point owner Michael Gaughan, son of late Vegas pillar Jackie Gaughan, who in 2018 provided me with ageless insight for a book.
“America loves underdogs,” he said. “But America bets favorites.”
Overs, too. So when dogs and unders bark, it’s good to be the house.
