After a full season and two playoff rounds of NFL player prop picks, I’m switching things up for the conference championships and making picks for every position of every team remaining.
That’s quarterback, running back, wide receiver and tight end props, just in time to hopefully provide a little direction on which way to go for Sunday’s games.
In the AFC, the Cincinnati Bengals are visiting the Kansas City Chiefs in a rematch of last year’s title game. And the NFC title will be decided between the Philadelphia Eagles and San Francisco 49ers.
Here’s a look at my best wide receiver props, with odds from BetMGM.
San Francisco 49ers
Brandon Aiyuk
O/U 3.5 receptions: Under
My expectation is that unless the Niners fall behind, they won’t attempt many passes against a tough Eagles secondary. So I think Aiyuk falls under this number for a third straight game.
O/U 45.5 receiving yards: Under
The few catches I do expect him to haul in won’t likely be for many yards. The Eagles were among the league leaders in defensive yards per pass attempt.
Deebo Samuel
O/U 4.5 receptions: Over
Samuel has outpaced Aiyuk in targets and catches each game these playoffs, and I think that continues here where he should receive a healthy amount of looks on gadget plays in addition to his typical workload.
O/U 49.5 receiving yards: Over
Though the screens and short routes to Samuel certainly make it possible for him to have fewer than 50 yards on 5+ catches, it’s highly unlikely.
O/U 20.5 rushing yards: Over
I just think Samuel is going to need a big game for the Niners to have a chance. He’s hit this over twice in the last four games.
Jauan Jennings
O/U 2.5 receptions: Under
Jennings just doesn’t get enough looks for me to feel good about the over. He has just one game of more than two receptions since the start of December.
O/U 21.5 receiving yards: Over
The one or two catches he does haul in will likely be chunk plays. Jennings is averaging almost 17 yards per catch this postseason.
Anytime touchdown scorers
Deebo Samuel: Yes +170
Whether it’s a typical pass route, a screen, a shovel pass in the red zone, or whatever, I’m expecting Samuel to have the most opportunities to score.
Philadelphia Eagles
A.J. Brown
O/U 4.5 receptions: Over
Brown hasn’t eclipsed this number in his last three games, but the targets have been there and should continue to be. The closest thing the Niners have to a weakness is outside the numbers.
O/U 68.5 receiving yards: Over
Even without the receptions, he’s had success in the yardage department, eclipsing this total in six straight games before last week’s blowout of the Giants.
DeVonta Smith
O/U 5.5 receptions: Under
Smith has actually outpaced Brown in targets lately, but recent games against the Giants inflate how much he actually contributes week-to-week.
O/U 65.5 receiving yards: Over
While I’m predicting Brown to have the bigger game, Smith’s role should still see him approach his 70-yard season average.
Quez Watkins
O/U 1.5 receptions: Under
Watkins was outsnapped by Zach Pascal last week and didn’t record a catch. I’m not sure that happens again, but I’ll bet the under.
O/U 15.5 receiving yards: Under
If Watkins does get a catch, I’m not expecting it to be for many yards.
Anytime touchdown scorers
A.J. Brown: Yes +140
Brown is long overdue for a touchdown after going scoreless in his last five games. He’s the big, physical presence Jalen Hurts will need near the end zone against an equally physical defense.
Cincinnati Bengals
Ja’Marr Chase
O/U 6.5 receptions: Over
Chase is averaging eight catches in his three career games against the Chiefs. KC hasn’t figured out how to keep the ball out of his hands.
O/U 83.5 receiving yards: Under
Even as I’m predicting Chase to get a decent share of targets and catches, I think the Chiefs will make it a point to not let him get huge plays over the top.
Tee Higgins
O/U 4.5 receptions: Under
The Bengals could find some success passing on the Chiefs, but I’m just not sure they’ll be doing it a lot. Higgins only three catches in their win over KC earlier in the season.
O/U 56.5 receiving yards: Under
The Chiefs haven’t really allowed many big plays in the pass game, so I don’t expect Higgins to do a lot of damage with the catches he does get.
Tyler Boyd
O/U 3.5 receptions: Over
I think Boyd could serve as a quick outlet for Joe Burrow when KC’s pressure gets to him, making for a decent amount of targets if not yards.
O/U 33.5 receiving yards: Over
I don’t think he’ll have 50 yards or anything. But it would be hard to catch four passes and not eclipse 35 yards.
Trenton Irwin
O/U 8.5 receiving yards: Over
Irwin has at least nine yards in all but one of the games he has at least a single reception.
Anytime touchdown scorers
Ja’Marr Chase: Yes -105
Tee Higgins: Yes +180
While the Chiefs don’t give up huge plays through the air, they do give up a lot of touchdowns to wide receivers — tied for the second most in the NFL to be exact. Chase is a tough guard anywhere on the field and Higgins usually has a size advantage in the red zone.
Kansas City Chiefs
JuJu Smith-Schuster
O/U 4.5 receptions: Under
Smith-Schuster hasn’t caught at least five passes since before Christmas, and I’m not expecting that to change against Cincy.
O/U 47.5 receiving yards: Under
Smith-Schuster’s highest total over his last four games is 35 yards.
Kadarius Toney
O/U 36.5 receiving yards: Over
Patrick Mahomes could end up relying on Toney a lot as a quick outlet, so that he doesn’t have to plant on his bad ankle for deeper throws.
Marquez Valdez-Scantling
O/U 2.5 receptions: Under
Valdez-Scantling has eclipsed this number just twice in his last seven games.
O/U 28.5 receiving yards: Over
With an average of 16 yards per catch, all he needs is one big catch to put him near this total.
Anytime touchdown scorers
None
