There are just two weeks of regular-season football and then conference title games left before the teams vying for a spot in the College Football Playoff know their fates.
The top five of the CFP rankings remain unchanged over the last two reveals, but there are at least four other teams that believe they still have a chance to sneak into the top four.
For that to happen, someone is going to have to slip.
Here’s a look at each of the Week 12 games involving the top nine teams, from Georgia to Clemson, and my picks against the spread for each matchup.
1
1 Georgia -22.5 (at Kentucky)
Of these picks, this one actually doesn’t rank high on the confidence scale. I’m confident Georgia wins, but covering this many points is always a tall order against a good defense like Kentucky’s. I’m mostly using Tennessee’s near shutout of the Wildcats as a template, and they’re probably not feeling the best coming into this game off a loss to Vanderbilt.
2
2 Ohio State -27.5 (at Maryland)
Maryland has a total of 10 points scored in the last two weeks. That includes a 30-0 shutout last week against the same Penn State team that Ohio State hung 44 points on. Taulia Tagovailoa has passed for fewer than 100 yards in consecutive games. This is a bad matchup for Maryland’s offense to be struggling.
3
Illinois +17.5 (at 3 Michigan)
Illinois does two important things that’s going to allow it to cover this spread, and that’s protect the ball and defend. Though the Illini have a balanced and efficient offensive attack, Michigan’s defense won’t allow many points. But Illinois won’t give up many big plays either. Blake Corum should carry Michigan to victory, but it won’t be by much.
4
4 TCU -2.5 (at Baylor)
If TCU runs into trouble down the stretch of this run to the CFP, it won’t be against Baylor. I don’t think this game will be as close as the spread suggests, because I don’t think Baylor has the offensive playmakers to keep up with TCU. The Bears just lost 38-3 to Kansas State last week.
5
5 Tennessee -22.5 (at South Carolina)
The best way to beat Tennessee is through the air, but passing the ball is just something South Carolina isn’t capable of doing at a high level. Once Hendon Hooker and company get going, particularly on the ground where the Gamecocks struggle most, South Carolina won’t have much of a response.
6
6 LSU -15.5 (vs. UAB)
UAB is probably better than its 5-5 record suggests. All five of those loses were by a single score, while all of its wins have been by double digits, giving the Blazers at +107 point differential on the season. However, LSU is playing at home, playing with a purpose and the first Power 5 team UAB will have played.
7
7 USC -2 (at 16 UCLA)
These teams are close, and I’m afraid of how Travis Dye’s injury might impact the Trojans. But if there’s anybody capable of putting a team on his back it’s Caleb Williams, and I think the quarterback does it on the road to carry USC to a late win.
8
Austin Peay at 8 Alabama
There is no spread being offered on this game as of yet.
9
Miami +19.5 (at 9 Clemson)
There’s a good chance Miami rolls out freshman Jacurri Brown for this game, but that’s not necessarily a bad thing. His ability to run adds an important dynamic to this offense against a Clemson defense that defends the run fairly well. Clemson should win, but the Tigers are just 1-2 against the spread in their last three games.
