After a full season and two playoff rounds of NFL player prop picks, I’m switching things up for the conference championships and making picks for every position of every team remaining.
That’s quarterback, running back, wide receiver and tight end props, just in time to hopefully provide a little direction on which way to go for Sunday’s games.
In the AFC, the Cincinnati Bengals are visiting the Kansas City Chiefs in a rematch of last year’s title game. And the NFC title will be decided between the Philadelphia Eagles and San Francisco 49ers.
Here’s a look at my best tight end props, with odds from BetMGM.
George Kittle, San Francisco 49ers
O/U 3.5 receptions: Over
Kittle saw five targets for five catches last week against the Cowboys, and I’m guessing Brock Purdy goes back to him often again with how well the Eagles defend receivers.
O/U 46.5 receiving yards: Over
I don’t anticipate a huge game for Kittle in terms of yards, but he’s averaging 19 per catch in the playoffs. So, all it takes is a couple of those chunk plays to approach this total.
Anytime touchdown scorer: Yes +190
Kittle had seven touchdowns over the final four games of the regular season. I think he’ll be in the mix with Deebo Samuel and Christian McCaffrey for the players most likely to score for the Niners.
Dallas Goedert, Philadelphia Eagles
O/U 4.5 receptions: Under
Goedert is averaging about six targets per game over his last three, but two of those games were against the Giants. The Niners are stingier against tight ends, so I think he takes a backseat to the receivers here.
O/U 45.5 receiving yards: Under
Even with five catches last week against the Niners, Dalton Schultz had just 27 yards. So if I’m expecting fewer catches from Goedert, I have to expect fewer yards.
Anytime touchdown scorer: Yes +200
Schultz did score, however. And I think Goedert will have a chance to as well with all the attention A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith will and should attract.
Hayden Hurst, Cincinnati Bengals
O/U 3.5 receptions: Under
With how much difficulty the Chiefs have keeping the ball out of wide receivers’ hands, I’m not sure how much Joe Burrow will need to throw to Hurst.
O/U 34.5 receiving yards: Under
The hope here is that one of those few receptions doesn’t go for so many yards that the others help him eclipse this small total.
Anytime touchdown scorer: No
Kansas City Chiefs
Travis Kelce
O/U 7.5 receptions: Over
If this total seems high, Kelce has at least seven catches in three of his last five games. He’s gone over seven just six times this season, but that includes last week’s win where it appeared Patrick Mahomes targeted him even more after the ankle injury.
O/U 78.5 receiving yards: Over
The Bengals have done a good job keeping receivers in check this year, but tight ends have racked up the yardage. Kelce is the best of them all.
Noah Gray
O/U 1.5 receptions: Under
Gray has one catch in each of his last four games, so I don’t know why in this huge of a game, KC would go to him any more than usual.
O/U 12.5 receiving yards: Over
Based on Gray’s recent games, that one catch we can expect from him will be for a decent chunk of yards. He’s averaging 17 on his last three catches.
Anytime touchdown scorers
Travis Kelce: Yes -110
He has the best odds to score in this game for a reason. He was second in the league in receiving touchdowns and had two in the divisional round.
