After a full season and two playoff rounds of NFL player prop picks, I’m switching things up for the conference championships and making picks for every position of every team remaining.
That’s quarterback, running back, wide receiver and tight end props, just in time to hopefully provide a little direction on which way to go for Sunday’s games.
In the AFC, the Cincinnati Bengals are visiting the Kansas City Chiefs in a rematch of last year’s title game. And the NFC title will be decided between the Philadelphia Eagles and San Francisco 49ers.
Here’s a look at my best running back props, with odds from BetMGM.
San Francisco 49ers
Christian McCaffrey
O/U 14.5 rushing attempts: Over
If the Eagles have a weakness, it’s their run defense. So, as long as the Niners don’t fall behind early, there should be plenty of carries to go around between McCaffrey and Elijah Mitchell.
O/U 62.5 rushing yards: Over
Philly allowed 4.6 yards per carry this season, so it shouldn’t be difficult for McCaffrey to approach his 4.7-yard season average. That would put him at 70 yards with a minimum of 15 carries.
O/U 4.5 receptions: Under
The Eagles’ secondary and pass rush are great, so I expect Brock Purdy to dump the ball off to McCaffrey frequently. He was targeted eight times for six receptions under similar circumstances last week.
O/U 32.5 receiving yards: Under
And like last week, I don’t think his catches will amount to many yards. McCaffrey finished with just 22 yards against Dallas.
Anytime touchdown scorers
McCaffrey: Yes -120
He has a touchdown in eight straight games and all but three of his 13 with the Niners. So while I have doubts, I have to sprinkle something on this prop by default.
Kyle Juszczyk: Yes +1100
This is a pure value play, because the odds of it happening are so long. But with McCaffrey and Mitchell both banged up, Kyle Shanahan could let the big fullback get a red zone carry for his third score of the year.
Philadelphia Eagles
Miles Sanders
O/U 50.5 rushing yards: Under
Sanders won’t have an easy time running against the Niners. They allowed a league-low 3.4 yards per carry this season, so I’m guessing the ball stays in Jalen Hurts’ hands a little more.
O/U 1.5 receptions: Over
This isn’t really Sanders’ game, but when teams can’t run, they use a short passing game to compensate. That’s what Philly did the last time Sanders got two catches, all the way back on Dec. 4 against the Titans.
O/U 6.5 receiving yards: Over
Admittedly, both these receiving props are risky for Sanders. But he won’t need more than one catch to hit this number.
Kenneth Gainwell
O/U 10.5 rushing yards: Over
Philly may want to use Gainwell as a runner more to keep the Niners defense guessing.
O/U 1.5 receptions: Over
What I’m more sure of is that he’ll be involved in the passing game. Gainwell has a catch in eight straight games, and see the Sanders section for why he’ll get more than one.
O/U 8.5 receiving yards: Over
This shouldn’t be difficult with a minimum two catches.
Anytime touchdown scorers
None
Cincinnati Bengals
Joe Mixon
O/U 58.5 rushing yards: Over
KC was about league average when it came to stopping the run this season, so if the game script doesn’t force Cincy to go pass-heavy early, I think Mixon hits this easily.
O/U 3.5 receptions: Under
Because I don’t expect an early pass-heavy script, I’m staying conservative on Mixon’s catches. He was held to under four catches in their previous two games this postseason.
Samaje Perine
O/U 17.5 rushing yards: Over
With Mixon out, Perine feasted on KC earlier this season, notching his only 100-yard game of the season while averaging five yards per carry. So I think he’ll see more opportunities in this one.
O/U 14.5 receiving yards: Over
Again, I’m not sure how many times the backs will be targeted, but it won’t take many catches for Perine to hit this over.
Anytime touchdown scorers
None
Kansas City Chiefs
Isaiah Pacheco
O/U 11.5 rushing attempts: Over
I fully expect KC to lean on the run more than usual, with Patrick Mahomes hobbled, and Pacheco to get at least 12 carries for a second straight game.
O/U 48.5 rushing yards: Over
Pacheco has only been held under 48 yards once over his last 10 games since getting an increased workload.
O/U 1.5 receptions: Under
It’s always hit or miss whether Pacheco even gets a single reception each week. He’s been targeted just once in his last two games.
O/U 6.5 receiving yards: Under
Jerick McKinnon will get the bulk of receiving work between the backs.
Jerick McKinnon
O/U 6.5 rushing attempts: Under
If the Chiefs want to run, they’re giving the ball to Pacheco. McKinnon had more than six carries just once in his previous five games before last week.
O/U 27.5 rushing yards: Under
Even with 11 carries last week, he finished under this number. And the Bengals will be stingier against the run than Jacksonville was.
O/U 3.5 receptions: Over
Going back to Mahomes’ injury, I’m not sure how well he’ll be able to plant to throw the ball deep. So a short pass game lends to McKinnon bouncing back from last week’s catch-less game.
O/U 28.5 receiving yards: Over
And when McKinnon does get the ball in his hands, he can be electric. He might eclipse this in fewer than four catches.
Anytime touchdown scorers
Isaiah Pacheco: Yes +165
Both Pacheco and McKinnon scored in these teams’ first meeting, but I’ll take the better paying odds on Pacheco to punch one in.
