After a full season and two playoff rounds of NFL player prop picks, I’m switching things up for the conference championships and making picks for every position of every team remaining.
That’s quarterback, running back, wide receiver and tight end props, just in time to hopefully provide a little direction on which way to go for Sunday’s games.
In the AFC, the Cincinnati Bengals are visiting the Kansas City Chiefs in a rematch of last year’s title game. And the NFC title will be decided between the Philadelphia Eagles and San Francisco 49ers.
Here’s a look at my best quarterback props, with odds from BetMGM.
Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers
O/U 220.5 passing yards: Under
Purdy has only eclipsed this total in three of his eight games this season, including once in the postseason. I’m not expecting it to happen against the top-rated pass defense.
O/U 1.5 passing touchdowns: Under
Purdy had thrown for at least two touchdowns in each one of his starts prior to last week’s game. I think he gets one here, but that same magic won’t be easy replicate in Philly.
O/U 0.5 interceptions: Over
This isn’t based on anything we’ve seen, because Purdy has protected the ball quite well. But he’s still an unheralded rookie playing against the top pass defense and pass rush in a conference championship game.
O/U 8.5 rushing yards: Over
The Eagles allowed the fourth-most rushing yards to quarterbacks in the regular season. With how good the back of their defense is, Purdy may be forced to take off some.
Anytime touchdown scorer: No
Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles
O/U 251.5 passing yards: Over
The Eagles’ best path to the end zone will be through the air, and Hurts can certainly get it done. This number is only five yards higher than his season average.
O/U 1.5 passing touchdowns: Over
I expect DeMeco Ryans’ defense to stay disciplined in keeping Hurts in the pocket, so he’ll be passing for whatever points they put up. A.J. Brown could have a big game.
O/U 0.5 interceptions: Over
Again, with how much I’m anticipating Hurts to throw, it’s almost inevitable he ends up with a pick against the team that leads the league in interceptions and has one in five straight games.
O/U 47.5 rushing yards: Under
I think Hurts will come close, because he’s just that difficult to contain and all it takes is one big run. But this number is high against a team with a defensive front as good as the Niners.
Anytime touchdown scorer: No
Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals
O/U 280.5 passing yards: Under
Burrow has eclipsed this number just once in the last six games since last playing the Chiefs, where he finished with 286 yards. The Bengals have a balanced attack that won’t require him to throw for 300.
O/U 1.5 passing touchdowns: Over
He’s thrown for at least two touchdowns in all three of his career games against the Chiefs, who also allowed the most passing touchdowns in the NFL this season.
O/U 0.5 interceptions: Under
Burrow does a good job taking care of the ball, and the Chiefs aren’t necessarily known for taking the ball away from anyone.
O/U 17.5 rushing yards: Over
The Chiefs do, however, get after the quarterback. So I expect Burrow to have to scramble a little and eclipse this total for a second straight week.
Anytime touchdown scorer: No
Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs
O/U 285.5 passing yards: Under
Mahomes has fallen short of this total in his last three games against Cincy on a healthy ankle. So, though he may be feeling better than we assumed he would, this is not going to be an easy game by any stretch.
O/U 2.5 passing touchdowns: Under
Cincinnati simply doesn’t allow many touchdowns through the air, giving quarterbacks an average of one passing touchdown per game in the regular season. Mahomes is great, so he’ll have multiple. But three is a big stretch.
O/U 0.5 interceptions: Under
Considering the mental acuity necessary to play through pain and Mahomes’ motivation to beat the Bengals, I expect to see him as sharp as ever. Even if he can’t maneuver in ways to make some of his more absurd throws.
Anytime touchdown scorer: No
