Even for a win-now, splurge-“Mo”-splurge guy like myself, the idea of the Cardinals trading for Juan Soto is a tough one to back.
A lot would have to fall into place — and executive John “Mo” Mozeliak would have to do an about-face regarding his business model. It would cost decades of team-control years. And possibly three key young guys from the current Cardinals, let alone prospects, too.
If a trade with Washington means also taking on Patrick Corbin — perhaps the worst pitcher in the National League who still is due nearly $60 million in 2023-24 — then you don’t make a trade for Soto.
If it means giving up Jordan Walker — the No. 7 prospect in baseball who is only 20 — then you don’t make a trade for Soto.
A couple of logical nonstarters.
So, if we’re talking about trade starters, let’s talk about starters.
The Cards need one. Miles Mikolas and Adam Wainwright are reliable. Beyond that, uneven Dakota Hudson has trended north or south depending on the start. Rookie Andre Pallante already has thrown 70 innings — the only time he’s ever thrown more than 100 was in his second season in college (and even that was just 101⅓ innings). Steven Matz is a question mark. Jack Flaherty is a question mark.
For all the hoopla about the first half, the hard truth is that St. Louis isn’t in the playoffs if the season ended today.
And St. Louis must make the playoffs this season.
That means leapfrogging either the Brewers for the NL Central Division title or perhaps the Padres or Phillies for a wild-card spot. That means having starters throw more quality starts so the bullpen isn’t as taxed.
The Aug. 2 trade deadline looms. And the more I look at names and numbers, the more intrigued I get about Miami’s Pablo Lopez.
The quick facts. The Marlins are 43-48 and 5½ games out of the third, and final, wild-card spot. So, this is all assuming they’re sellers.
The Marlins’ minor leagues are loaded with pitching prospects. So trading Lopez, who is 26 and under team control until 2024, wouldn’t be ridiculous. Meanwhile, Miami has the second-lowest OPS in the NL. And we know how many offensive prospects the Cardinals have. How many teams have an Alec Burleson (.936 OPS in Class AAA) who hasn’t even cracked the majors yet? The Cards should be able to compile a realistic bundle of players for Lopez — players who could help Miami's hitting as soon as next season.
Now, some Cardinals fans might wonder — why Lopez? Wasn't he the guy St. Louis scored five runs on in late June? Well, since then Lopez has allowed four total runs in three starts. The righty’s overall ERA is 2.86. And his adjusted ERA+ of 143 is good for 10th in the NL. He was the league’s pitcher of the month in April. His changeup is a game changer.
Now, in most seasons, there are a numerous All-Star hurlers available at the trade deadline. The mighty Dodgers last year dealt for Max Scherzer, for instance. But this year there aren't many great pitchers on bad teams, and three of those bad teams are in the Cardinals’ division. Luis Castillo of Cincinnati is the most-enticing available starter, but could “Mo” stomach a trade of multiple Cards prospects who then could beat his Cards for years to come?
Incidentally, the second half of this season begins Friday in Cincinnati. The Cardinals face teams under-.500 in nearly 70% of their remaining games.
That stat is one of numerous reasons why the playoffs seem possible. And an optimist would have to believe that a healthy Tyler O’Neill will mash more often in the second half. When he first went on the injured list, on May 17, he had a .552 OPS. But in the 13 games upon his return, from June 7-19, his OPS was .905. Alas, he went on the IL again. But now he’s off it and yearning to face fastballs.
At some point in August, Harrison Bader and Yadier Molina will make it back as well. Matz finally will pitch this weekend in Cincy. Flaherty, well, we’ll have to see it to believe it.
The way the upcoming schedule sets up is fitting. The last trip on this road swing is to Washington, against Soto’s current team. The Cardinals’ next home game is August 2, the trade deadline. That Tuesday will be an eventful day at the ballpark, whether they make a deal or not. And then, starting that Friday, the Yankees are in town. If there ever was a litmus-test team for a new-look Cardinals club, it would be New York — which has the best record in the game.
You’ve read it before. You’ll read it again — the Cardinals can't squander this particular season. They must improve the team from the outside. You cannot waste a year with the top-three guys in WAR per the stat site baseballreference.com. Oh, and Albert Pujols and Molina are retiring. Now is the time to make a marquee move, one that moves the needle and moves the Cardinals into the division driver’s seat.
The front office often talks about making sure the team also is competitive next year and every year. Trading for Soto could hinder future seasons, even with his OPS prowess. But trading for Lopez — and for a reduced trade haul headed to Miami, compared to D.C. for Soto — could be the perfect compromise.
