We recently looked at how the Cincinnati Bengals fare on ESPN’s win probability metrics for each game of the upcoming season.
Two of the games on the schedule stick out as tied for the least likely wins.
The first should be obvious — that Week 2 encounter with the Kansas City Chiefs on the road. It’s so early in the season and against such a proven contender, plus the unknowns of the new-look Bengals offense and Joe Burrow’s health, that percentages were never going to look kindly on it.
More notable, though, is that Week 10 game against the Baltimore Ravens, one of the wildest examples of rare rest features of the schedule really working against the Bengals.
There, the Bengals have just a 38 percent win probability, mostly because of the fact the team has to turn around and play the game on just a handful of days of rest after playing the Las Vegas Raiders on November 3.
That November 7 kickoff is in Baltimore against a likely-contending Ravens team that also comes off a short week, but gets to stay home for both of those games over a short stretch.
Plus, considering the trouble the Bengals had in Baltimore last year, it’s no wonder the percentage isn’t all that great.
The next lowest win probability percentage is Cincinnati’s Monday night game in Week 14 (December 9) against the Dallas Cowboys at 41 percent.
