Fun mailbag this week. Let’s jump in …
From Rob (@Robojr35): Albert we all know Ben Johnson is gonna stay in Detroit again, right? These openings are not good out there.
Rob, I think that’s hard to nail down right now. I know that Johnson will be a bit pickier this year than he has been in years past in how many jobs he considers.
He has two criteria for looking at opportunities. Number one, he’ll want a team that’ll create alignment between the head coach and general manager. Number two, he’ll want to work for an owner who is willing to honestly identify his/her team’s weaknesses and address them aggressively. In other words, he’ll want what Dan Campbell and Brad Holmes got from the Detroit Lions in 2021.
With that as the backdrop, as I hear it, Johnson will only interview this year for jobs he can really envision himself taking. He won’t interview just to interview. And in the interview, rather than trying to assess an organization’s situation, or win the job, he’ll be selling his vision of what he believes it’ll take to win—so if an owner hires him, it’ll happen with buy-in into how he plans to build his own program.
I think it’s a smart, self-aware approach. And to your point, I do think it’s enabled by his happiness in Detroit, and willingness to stay there if the right job doesn’t come along.
From Emilio Lizardo (@ElectClayDavis): Why are you people so oblivious to Cam Ward? Is it intentional? Am I the only one who watched the film? Am I taking crazy pills?
Emilio, I don’t think it's intentional or that you’re taking crazy pills. And to be clear, I haven’t done nearly enough to give you a real answer on how high the Miami quarterback will go in the draft.
What I will say is there’s a reason why he declared for last year’s draft, and then pulled out of it. He’d likely have been a sixth- or seventh-round pick then, but was having trouble finding the right place to go, so he rolled the dice before the Miami option came to life. To his credit, he had a really good year with the Canes—he threw for 4,123 yards and 36 touchdowns against just seven picks and ran for another four scores in 12 games.
So, how much has his stock jumped? A bunch, I’d say. My sense is, in an average year, he’d be seen as a borderline first-round pick which means, in a quarterback-poor draft year, he’ll probably go pretty high in the first round. Whether or not overdrafting a quarterback based on need is the right move is an age-old argument, of course. But it’ll keep happening as long as there are teams that need them drafting high.
And, again, I have a lot more work I’ve got to do on Ward before I say definitively how high I think he will.
From Tom Brady Burner (Unvaxxed) (@user690000): If Mayo is out as HC somehow, is Vrabel the top candidate as a replacement?
Tom Burner, absolutely, yes, 100%.
If the New England Patriots did move on from Jerod Mayo, and I don’t think they will (or should, unless they have a good idea that they can get someone like Mike Vrabel), then Vrabel would be the easy choice. He played eight seasons in New England, won three rings there and played in four Super Bowls for the Patriots. He was a captain. He’s been successful as a head coach, making the playoffs in Years 2, 3 and 4 as Tennessee Titans head coach, before his roster aged and fell off his final two years. He’d bring a high-level offensive coordinator with him.
As for Mayo, I don’t think the Krafts are there yet on the idea of firing him. But to me, what Sunday did was put everything on the table—depending on how the last three weeks of the regular season go. Mayo’s team flatlined in Arizona, coming off the bye without any semblance of an identity, much discipline or purpose. So now, I think the narrative goes from the Krafts went to Mayo a year or two before they intended to, and need to give him time to grow, to Has Mayo shown enough to pass on the one chance you have to get Vrabel?
It’s an interesting question. Again, the Krafts will have a lot of egg on their face if they pull the plug. Robert Kraft has said he followed his instincts on Mayo, and that his instinct rarely fails him (he invoked meeting his two wives as a comparison). Mayo was 36 at the time of his hire and had never been so much as a coordinator. So moving on would be a stunning reversal a year later. But Vrabel’s availability, and ties to the franchise, at least make this interesting.
From Shedrick Carter (@shedrickcarter2): What happened to Kirk Cousins?
Shedrick, there are layers to it.
First, the Achilles hasn’t been a nonissue. It’s tough for a quarterback of Cousins’s age (36) who sustained that injury to his plant leg. Historically, it was likely that he would have some issues coming back. And Cousins did. At the start of the year, it was pretty clear he wasn’t driving the ball quite the same—it died on him on more difficult throws down the field and to the sideline. Then, in the team’s game in New Orleans a month ago, he nicked his elbow and shoulder, and it got harder for him to put anything on the ball.
As you might imagine, his confidence faded from there, contributing to some of the inexplicable decisions of the past few weeks. Really, the turnovers made the decision for Raheem Morris. As he said this week, the Atlanta Falcons needed to get better play out of the quarterback position than they have, and Michael Penix Jr. had shown, really going back to the summer, the ability to give them a good level of play from that spot as a rookie. Now we’ll see if he can rescue Atlanta’s season.
Obviously, Cousins’s future will be elsewhere. He’s due $27.5 million fully guaranteed next year, having collected $62.5 million for this year. Previously, I thought the lower number this year would make his contract tradeable. I’m not as sure anymore, based on the way this ended. And he has a no-trade clause, meaning he can basically force his release anyway. This makes it likely that the Falcons paid $90 million for 14 games from Cousins.
From Richard Ito (@rich_ito): Is Baalke going to survive again?
Richard, I don’t think he should. Whether he will is another question.
In San Francisco, Trent Baalke survived the firing of a GM and coach, Scot McCloughan and Mike Singletary, to become GM in the first place, then made it through Jim Harbaugh and Jim Tomsula being let go before being dumped with Chip Kelly in 2017. In Jacksonville, he survived the firings of GM David Caldwell and coach Doug Marrone to become GM in 2021 and has since made it through the Urban Meyer firing to be paired with Doug Pederson.
With the San Francisco 49ers, it was slightly more understandable why he kept making it through. The Niners roster he built, first under McCloughan (who was a scouting savant), then as GM, made it to three consecutive NFC title games, and a Super Bowl. Conversely, he arrived in Jacksonville in 2020 and has made the playoffs once in five seasons—and that’s with a top-shelf quarterback for the past four years, in the NFL’s worst division.
I have heard Baalke could retire after the season. If he doesn’t, and makes it to 2025 as the Jaguars’ GM, with all the above history plus some scouting/coaching infighting having happened in the organization … well, then I think I’d have to tip my cap to him.
From Coach Dabes (@Daboll_NYG): Who do the Giants want Sanders or Ward?
Coach, way too early for that.
From Gabe (@CryptoMorey): Prediction on the next coach of the Jets?
Gabe, I like Aaron Glenn or Vrabel for the job. I think they need that type of leader—one who’ll have the personality to come in and get everyone to forget about the franchise’s wayward history, and recreate who the team is, like Campbell did in Detroit.
From Sam Hickman (@SamHick60072515): Kindest head coach you’ve ever covered?
Sam, there are a lot of good guys. But when you used the word “kind”, Frank Reich was the first coach who came to mind. Just an incredibly nice person—a gem of a guy.
From winkusthegreat (@TylerGreennnn): Does Antonio Pierce get another year with the Raiders? Who is the better QB fit for them between Shedeur and Ward?
Tyler, I think it’s really up in the air. To Pierce’s credit, the Las Vegas Raiders certainly haven’t quit, and the roster isn’t good—everyone there would concede that. They’ve gone from one of the NFL’s oldest teams to one of its youngest in a year, and the young guys have come along. The move to Scott Turner as offensive coordinator has mostly worked out. So there are positives.
Is it enough? I don’t know. The Raiders haven’t looked like one of the most put-together teams in the league, and they haven’t shown the identity Pierce promised to give them. Late-game management has been a problem. And Tom Brady’s influence over Mark Davis could be a wild card. I do think Brady is too invested in broadcasting now—with the NFC title game and Super Bowl to call—to be engaged in a coaching search. But … I also think Davis will listen to his suggestions, so he may not need to be that involved to have an impact.
Stay tuned.
From Derrick Heldenbrand (@stuffderricksay): How likely is it that Chris Ballard and/or Shane Steichen get fired this offseason? Irsay has preached continuity of GM, HC, and QB, which would be crucial for AR’s development. But hard to look past the team’s lackluster results under Ballard.
Derrick, I think Steichen is safe. The Indianapolis Colts generally have been well-coached through his two seasons, and I believe he’s getting the most you could expect from Anthony Richardson, who came into the league with just 13 college starts on his résumé and a whole lot to learn.
There have been murmurs, though, that Ballard could be in trouble. Through eight seasons, the GM has two playoff appearances, one playoff win and no division titles, despite being in the AFC South. The shocking 2019 retirement of Andrew Luck (and Luck’s previous injuries), bought Ballard a very reasonable benefit of the doubt. But that was over five years ago now. So I can see where he’d be under evaluation.
From The Jets Jenius (@TheJetsJenius): Dan Orlovsky hinted that Vrabel’s next destination is already set. Any indications where that is? Ohio State?
I don’t know. I think Ohio State AD Ross Bjork is in Ryan Day’s corner. I’d be surprised if there’s a change there—though if there was, I’d expect a full-court press on Vrabel. What I can say is that Vrabel is at or near the top of a bunch of lists, and he and Johnson are the two guys that I think will have the most widespread interest from teams.
From John (@eorlandgreymane): Do you think the Krafts are actually considering the opportunity cost around Mayo? There are bona fide candidates on the market this year that may not be next year.
Yeah, John, again, the opportunity cost could be Vrabel. We’ll see if they still see the upside in Mayo that they did before this season.
From Jon Bunch (@WhoDeyBunch): How do you feel about THE OSU’s chances in the CFP?
Can I get back to you at midnight on Saturday? (The ceiling is still as high as anyone’s.)
From alise (12-2; 4-10) (@ajdavis22800): Is there a scenario where Sam Darnold ends up in L.A. with the Rams if Stafford retires? and what does happen with Stafford come the end of the season?
Alise, the Los Angeles Rams and Matthew Stafford, in renegotiating his deal for 2024, pushed money into this season, guaranteed all of it, and removed guarantees for ’25—creating a decision point for next year. They agreed, at the time, to revisit everything after the season. If that leads to Stafford’s departure (not likely, but not impossible), then, yes, I think Darnold would be a name to consider as a guy with a background in their offense (Cousins, too).
From Casual Sports Takes (@CSLSportsTakes): Plan the Bears must follow to get out of the dumpster?
Casual, go find a program leader that affects real change. Don’t have someone coming in to coach one player. The Bears need someone capable of making a difference for all of the players.
From Robert Snyder (@RobbieBuckets): Which positional group or entire side of a ball will determine who wins the Super Bowl? In other words, ___ won the Super Bowl because no one could figure out their _____
Robbie, I’m going to go with the Buffalo Bills and their passing game. I just think Buffalo’s found a way to become more difficult to defend in 2025. Part of it is Josh Allen taking another step as a pocket passer. Another is Joe Brady being installed as offensive coordinator. Another yet is in the balance of skill-position players. Stefon Diggs is great. But the Bills have become less predictable by leaning on all five eligibles, rather than just one, and the development of guys such as Khalil Shakir, Dawson Knox, Dalton Kincaid and Keon Coleman has keyed that.
Compared to other teams, the Bills are also pretty healthy with January approaching.
From Joey Bag of Donuts (@joeybagovdonuts): Vikings have no choice but to keep Sam Darnold, right?
Using the Los Angeles Chargers’ 2005 model is plausible, for sure—back then, San Diego franchise tagged Drew Brees, who’d had a fantastic ’04, and put Philip Rivers on ice for another year to best serve a ready-to-win roster. So yeah, the Minnesota Vikings could tag Darnold, and give J.J. McCarthy a second redshirt year.
It’ll just take a willingness to spend more than $40 million (on the tag) to do it.
From Willie Lutz (@willie_lutz): If you could wave a magic wand and force the Bengals to make 3 moves to fix their defense, what would you want to see?
First, make Trey Hendrickson happy. Then, do these three things …
• Sign New York Jets free-agent CB D.J. Reed. Reed’s been an underrated piece and played on big stages. They’ve had a rough time in the draft at the position (Dax Hill, DJ Turner II, and Cam Taylor-Britt haven’t, collectively, lived up to expectations). Reed would stabilize that spot.
• Sign Miami Dolphins free-agent S Jevon Holland. Miami may tag him, so it’s certainly possible this isn’t an option. But if it is one, Lou Anarumo’s defense had been at its best (and I wouldn’t fire Anarumo, even if I think Cincy will be tempted to do it) when it’s had heady, play-making safeties. Vonn Bell’s on his last legs. Holland, I think, would give them some of what they lost when Jessie Bates left.
• Trade up for Georgia edge rusher Mykel Williams. Williams has been banged up and hasn’t played to his potential. But he has first-pick-in-the-draft talent, and Cincinnati should be in striking distance to move up and roll the dice that he’ll realize his potential in the pros. Myles Murphy’s bordering on bust. Sam Hubbard’s age is catching up to him. And a freak like Williams would look really good opposite Hendrickson.
This article was originally published on www.si.com as Ben Johnson’s Criteria for Potential Coaching Opportunities.
