Is it possible to sprain the brain?
I’m asking for the small minority of Cardinals fans who are overstretching themselves by trying to find potential downsides to their favorite team trading for superstar third baseman Nolan Arenado.
Most in Cardinal Nation are floating, for good reason. But a few are fretting, worrying about what-ifs as the Cardinals work to finalize the blockbuster deal. Let’s examine their concerns.
What if Arenado winds up using an opt-out to depart sooner rather than later?
Don’t bet on it. But I’ll play along. Let’s say Arenado turns out to be a short-timer in St. Louis. If so, the Cardinals would have benefitted from his play to the point Arenado would likely think he could make more guaranteed money on a brand new deal with some other team. Arenado wanting to bolt seems unlikely considering he agreed to the trade. So does Arenado getting a bigger deal than the one he has, considering the current financial climate in baseball, and the fact he’s entering his age-30 season. The Cardinals would run the risk of being burned by one of the players they ship out in the trade, but they managed to convince the Rockies to stay away from their top prospects, including the ones who could fill from within to replace Arenado at third base.
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What if Arenado’s contract handcuffs the Cardinal moving forward?
We will see what the final numbers look like when the trade becomes official, but the Rockies are chipping in some serious cash to offload Arenado’s contract, meaning the Cardinals could potentially have a lower 2021 payroll than they did entering 2020. And then there are all of the contracts that could come off the books after the 2021 season, some without a buyout and some with small ones. The list will likely include Yadier Molina, along with Adam Wainwright, Dexter Fowler, Carlos Martinez and Kwang Hyun Kim. The Cardinals are not handcuffed now, and won’t be later.
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What if Arenado’s play declines as he ages?
It happens. But let’s not pretend Arenado is a) ancient, or b) a walking injury. Arenado is three months and change older than Mike Trout. He has been on the injured list just twice since his rookie season in 2013. The first time was for a fractured finger in 2014. The second time, last season, was for a left shoulder bone bruise he played through until it was obvious the Rockies were not going to make the expanded postseason. In between, Arenado played 155 or more games every season.
Arenado’s shoulder injury last season happened in the fifth game, when he was diving for a grounder. The nagging problem did not affect his stellar defense, but it did cause a power dip at the plate. His slugging percentage dropped to .434, down from his career average of .541.
Surgery was not required. Arenado was told to rest and recover. He is supposed to be good to go for 2021. We’ll see.
If his shoulder was still barking, I don’t think he would have been announced as one of the major leaguers scheduled to play golf in the Waste Management Open in Phoenix next week.
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What if Arenado’s power wilts when he doesn’t play home games in the offense-aided thin air of Coors Field?
This concern, I get. Totally fair. Let’s dig into it, though, because I think it will get less scary as we go.
Arenado’s career batting line at Coors Field shows he has a .322 average, a .376 on-base percentage and a .609 slugging percentage in the Rockies’ home stadium. That’s an on-base plus slugging percentage (OPS) of .985. Crazy good. Since Arenado debuted in 2013, only three other regular major leaguers have posted a higher OPS in home games. At the top of that list is the best player in baseball, Trout, who has a home OPS of 1.024 during that span. The next three on the list are Trevor Story, Charlie Blackmon and Arenado. They’re all Rockies. The Coors Effect is real.
Away from Coors, Arenado’s career batting line shows a .263 average, a .322 on-base percentage and a .471 slugging percentage. That’s an OPS of .793. Guess who tops the list of major leaguers in terms of road OPS since 2013? It’s Trout, with his road OPS of 1.006. Arenado’s road OPS of .793 checks in 49th. Still impressive. But certainly not as much when compared to Coors Field.
Here’s why I would not worry. Arenado is a very good hitter, and very good hitters have a very good chance of continuing to be very good hitters when they move out of the mountains.
Adjusted on-base plus slugging percentage, or OPS+, can help us here. It’s a statistic that normalizes good old fashioned on-base plus slugging percentage for things like ballpark factors, so we can have a better comparison of offense across everything from ballparks, to leagues, to generations. A player with an OPS+ of 100 was a league average hitter that season. A player with an OPS+ of 150 was 50 percent better than a league average hitter that season.
Hall of Famer Larry Walker had an OPS+ of 147 during a decade with the Rockies. He posted an OPS+ of 134 with the Cardinals. Not bad, considering Walker was in his age-37 season when he was traded to St. Louis. Matt Holliday’s six-season OPS+ of 131 with the Rockies was surpassed by his eight-season mark (138 OPS+) in St. Louis. Whether it is Ellis Burks with the Giants, or DJ LeMahieu with the Yankees, too many examples exist to assume very good Rockies hitters will tank after changing teams. LeMahieu, by the way, was not even considered to be a very good hitter when he left the Rockies. He is now. His Colorado OPS+ of 93 has turned into a Big Apple OPS+ of 145. Arenado’s eight seasons with the Rockies have produced an OPS+ of 120.
Between 2015 and 2019, before Arenado spent a pandemic-shortened season playing through shoulder pain that sapped his power, he slugged .506 in road games and ranked fifth in baseball in extra-base hits totaled away from home (173). That’s quite strong for a division like the National League West, which features multiple ballparks known for being tough on right-handed hitters like Arenado. Against National League Central teams in games not played at Coors Field, Arenado has averaged .292 with a .349 on-base percentage and a .526 slugging percentage over nearly 400 at-bats. He has slugged .511 in 90 career at-bats at Busch Stadium.
There’s no questioning Arenado’s elite defense. If his shoulder is healed, I think his offense will adjust to the elevation change just fine.
