On the 18th day, the Cardinals rested.
They earned it.
A gantlet of 17 games in 17 days – with one sort-of off day dropped in due to a rain-delayed rescheduling that produced a double-header the next day — planted Mike Shildt’s club in first place in the National League Central with a two-game lead over the second-place Brewers.
Since the first game of a home sweep against the Reds on April 23, when Shildt suggested his team was ready to roll through its 17-game blitz between scheduled off days, the Cardinals went 13-4 with three series sweeps and no series losses. They outscored the opposition by a score of 76-51.
A check of Monday morning’s standings showed no other National League club could match the Cardinals’ win total (21), winning percentage (.600), or run differential (plus-23).
Without a game to watch tonight, let’s dig into 17 Cardinals observations made during their 17-game climb . . .
Homering helps. Shocking, I know. The Cardinals are averaging 1.26 home runs per game, which is the fourth-highest average in the NL. Last season that average for the Cardinals was 0.88. Twelve Cardinals have gone deep in 2021. Nine have three or more homers. Five have five or more. The Cardinals’ .405 slugging percentage is fourth-best in the NL and second in the division behind the NL-leading Reds (.424). Hitting coach Jeff Albert says, take that! (Kidding. But he could.)
You know what else helps? Not surrendering home runs. Cardinals pitchers have allowed an average of 0.71 home runs per nine innings so far this season. That’s second-lowest in the NL, trailing only the Mets, who might allow a few more if superstar Jacob deGrom hits the injured list. Pitching coach Mike Maddux’s collection of arms has held opponents to a slugging percentage of .338, which is again second best in the NL, behind the Mets. The Cardinals have powered up at the plate and they are limiting power from the mound. Good combination.
Don’t go crazy yet, folks. The MLB.com standings remind us the Cardinals are 6-8 against teams with a winning record. Their 14 games against teams on the right side of .500 is the fewest in the division. Second-place Milwaukee is 14-9 against teams with a winning record. The Cubs and the Reds are both .500. This week’s road trip against the Brewers and the Padres will be a good test for the confident Cards. Milwaukee claimed a series at Busch Stadium earlier this season. The Padres powered the Cardinals out of last season's playoffs.
Welcome back, Yadier Molina. The future Hall of Famer rushed back from a tendon strain in his right foot and went three-for-eight with as many doubles (two) and twice as many RBIs (four) as strikeouts (two) in his first two games back. He’s averaging .329 with a .367 on-base percentage and a .630 slugging percentage this season. And when he heads to the plate with teammates on base, he’s slashing .400/.429/.760. Absurd. I don’t know what the numbers are for Molina when his mom is in attendance, but the Cardinals should probably go ahead and make sure she never misses another game.
One more quick thing about both Molina and Adam Wainwright. What they’re doing is not impressive because they are old veterans. What they’re doing is impressive, period. Wainwright is one of just 19 major leaguers with a complete game beneath his belt this season, and he nearly became the first to get to two. Molina’s .639 slugging percentage ranks second among MLB catchers, trailing only Buster Posey’s .760. Molina and Wainwright are good sports about the age stuff and like to poke fun at themselves, but let’s not get it twisted. This isn’t some good-for-their-age-division kind of start to the season they are having.
The Cardinals have a closer. His name is Alex Reyes. He’s one of just three major leaguers with a 100 percent save percentage in 10 or more save opportunities so far this season. Reyes is as important to the team as any pitcher moving forward now that Jordan Hicks is out for more than a month. The talk of targeting a specific amount of innings that would best position Reyes to start next season is also going to fade now, I imagine. Reyes has found his role. It’s the one Shildt wanted from the jump. Reyes (13 walks) has allowed just three walks in his past six appearances. Opponents are slashing a meager .123/.286/.140 against him. He’s allowed just one extra-base hit, and it was a double.
Reliever Genesis Cabrera has a 1.69 ERA, two holds, twice as many strikeouts (six) as walks (three) in his five appearances since he accidentally hit Bryce Harper and Didi Gregorius. He hit zero of the 22 batters faced since. I guess he didn’t need to go to the minors after all.
The lefty reliever in trouble is Tyler Webb. Andrew Miller’s struggles were hidden when he landed on the injured list with a toe blister. Webb’s struggles have not been hidden. He's got a 13.00 ERA in 13 appearances and nine innings. His last four appearances have totaled just four innings and included four hits, seven walks, one strikeout and seven earned runs. Opponents have a .417 on-base percentage against him.
Dylan Carlson and the No. 2 spot just go together, as predicted. Of the 22 major leaguers with 60-plus at-bats in that spot this season, Carlson’s .344 average and .420 on-base percentage trail only Giancarlo Stanton’s .373 average and .420 on-base percentage. Carlson’s slugging .410 at No. 2, which is higher than Paul Goldschmidt’s .338 when he was hitting there earlier this season.
Nolan Arenado and the cleanup spot just go together, as predicted. He’s been there 17 games now compared to 18 at the No. 3 spot. At cleanup he’s posted a higher average (.297), on-base percentage (.357) and slugging percentage (.531).
Paul Goldschmidt is starting to heat up, I think. Entering the 17-game blitz he was averaging .236 with a .276 on-base percentage and a .347 slugging percentage. During it he slashed .258/.303/.452. The more distance he gets from the back tightness that kept him out of the lineup for the home opener, the better he looks.
Here’s one that was not predicted, at least not by me. Tommy Edman has the most hits (41) of any leadoff hitter in the National League. His 17 runs at leadoff trail only Ronald Acuna Jr. and Mookie Betts in the NL. I wasn’t against Edman hitting leadoff. But I didn't expect this. Bravo.
A potentially positive sign. Harrison Bader’s well-documented struggles against right-handed pitchers included a strikeout-per-at-bat percentage of about 36 percent against righties between 2018 and 2020. So far this season just five of his 28 at-bats against righties have ended via strikeout. That’s just under 18 percent. Small sample size, sure. Bader’s only been back from the injured list for 10 games. But something to keep track of moving forward.
A potentially concerning sign. Tyler O’Neill is one-for-12 with one walk over his last five games. Could be nothing. Could be another signature O’Neill slump. Don’t build that statue just yet.
Yes, shortstop Paul DeJong is boom-or-bust, too. But he’s also leading this team in home runs (seven). He could slide down from No. 5 to No. 6 in the lineup if Molina’s hitting (and his foot) hold up. The benefit of getting the order’s top four situated correctly minimizes the downside of DeJong’s streakiness.
Jack Flaherty has as many quality starts this season (five) as Yu Darvish, Clayton Kershaw and Max Scherzer. That’s more telling than his MLB-leading six wins. His walk percentage is down to a career-low 6.7 percent. He’s attacking hitters and trusting his defense. It’s working.
Nine of the Cardinals’ 12 steals came during the 17-game blitz. The speed of Bader (two) and O’Neill (three) should help Edman (four) put some more pressure on pitchers and catchers.
