Considering 58% of the season was in the bag by the time the Cardinals split ways for their All-Star break, it feels a little silly to refer to what starts Friday in Cincinnati as the beginning of the second half.
Numbers matter, and the Cardinals are well beyond the halfway point of what could be a compelling finish.
A division is right there for the taking. Outgoing Cardinals legends Yadier Molina and Albert Pujols (and perhaps Adam Wainwright) are deserving of a meaningful postseason sendoff. In-their-prime leaders Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado are having highly productive seasons worthy of All-Star inclusion and MVP consideration. Impressive younger players are making an impact.
Will the Cardinals front office do the same before the trade deadline?
Here are the numbers that stand out to me as the Cardinals begin what should be a fascinating sprint to the finish ...
0.5: The Brewers, who are hoping to win the National League Central for the second consecutive season and third time in the last five years, start with a half-game lead over the Cardinals. Last season, Milwaukee posted a second-half winning percentage of .600, good enough to hold off what became a 17-game Cardinals winning streak. The Cardinals have an easier schedule moving forward than Milwaukee, and the Brewers look more beatable these days, but underestimating manager Craig Counsell’s club would be foolish. FanGraphs gives the Brewers a 64.1% chance to win the National League Central. The Cardinals check in at 35.9%. The two have played to a draw (6-6) so far this season.
2: Southpaw starter Steven Matz provided just two quality starts — at least six innings and three or fewer earned runs allowed — during his injury shortened introduction. He doesn’t have to be an ace, and the Cardinals still need rotation help beyond his return, but steady, solid production from Matz moving forward now that he has healed and rehabbed his shoulder could help the Cardinals do two things: Win the division, and salvage what has been a mostly brutal (so far) class of free agents added by the front office this past offseason.
9: Catcher Yadier Molina, who since June 16 has more basketballs kicked than Cardinals games appeared in, needs nine more starts with his baseball brother Adam Wainwright to break the MLB record for starts together as a battery. The future Hall of Famer has missed 29 games since hitting the injured list with aching knees and receiving team permission to spend his time away from the team. The Cardinals are 13-16 during that stretch. If all goes well during a minor-league rehab stint, Molina could rejoin the Cardinals for their first homestand. That’s enough time to break the record and turn the page on the disappearing act.
11: Spoiling things for the Cardinals is pretty much the only thing the Cubs (35-57) have left to play for this season. Eleven games left against the North Siders. They are 4-4 against the rival Cardinals this season.
12: It seems safe to predict the 700 home-run club will not be welcoming future Hall of Famer Albert Pujols (685 career homers) as a new member before his retirement after this season. What he could do, though, is knock Alex Rodriguez (696) down a spot on the top-five list. No. 5 needs 12 homers to replace A-Rod at No. 4. Calling my shot here. I say it happens.
47: Of the Cardinals’ 68 remaining regular-season games, a hefty 47 come against teams that entered the All-Star break with losing records. That’s 69%. If you go by winning percentage of remaining opponents, the Cardinals have one of if not the easiest “second-half” schedules. They are 27-13 against teams with losing records, which should be an encouraging sign.
48: Outfielder Tyler O’Neill’s 48 games played before the All-Star break meant he appeared in just 51% of the Cardinals’ first-half games. Seven Cardinals have 200-plus at-bats. O’Neill (176) is not one of them. After winning a Gold Glove Award, finishing eighth in NL MVP voting and slugging .560 last season while playing a career-high 138 games, he is averaging .239 with a .352 slug this season while struggling to stay on the field. Some were hollering for the left fielder to get a long-term contract this offseason instead of an arbitration standoff. The Cardinals so far look smart for their wait-and-see approach. Another O’Neill surge could work wonders for this club, and help his contract hopes.
281: Midnight Friday starts a 281-hour countdown until the Aug. 2 trade deadline’s 5 p.m. arrival. Manager Oliver Marmol’s club has a chance to win the division. The 2022 Cardinals have earned and deserve in-season help from the front office. No excuses this year. It's time to prove true that spring-training talk about 2022 being bigger than a sepia-toned nostalgia tour.
