When the people of Sydney go to the polls in the New South Wales election on Saturday, about a third of them, or 1.54 million, will be casting votes from the city’s expansive western region.
This election will be largely determined by seats in the vast and diverse area but voters should expect a confusing picture on election night: those seats requiring only modest swings could stay with the Coalition, while Labor could pick up seats requiring much bigger swings of up to 9%.
“They are contending with the profoundly heightened cost-of-living pressures,” Andy Marks, the director of the centre for western Sydney at Western Sydney University, said of voters in the region.
“Wages for most workers in Sydney’s west are not keeping pace with inflation, and a growing proportion of the region’s mortgage holders are struggling to absorb the impact of relentless interest rate increases.”
He pointed to the pressures on infrastructure – schools, hospitals, roads and public transport – as a top-of-mind issue.
But despite Labor’s campaign focusing on the cost of living, it’s not entirely clear voters in western Sydney blame the Perrottet government for the pain they are experiencing.
Across the electorates Guardian Australia visited in the past week, people regularly brought up the cost of living but a number said interest rate hikes, rising food prices and even electricity costs were not really within the control of state governments.
Where emotions became more heated was in the suburban fringe seats.
The Coalition’s significant investment in new rail lines, roads and hospitals in north-west and western Sydney may have paid off in some electorates.
But there remains palpable dissatisfaction in outer seats including Camden, Leppington, Wollondilly and Penrith over the failure of infrastructure to keep pace with development.
“I think Camden could be the dark horse,” says Mark Buttigieg, a Labor upper house MP working on his party’s campaign in Camden, Leppington and Heathcote.
He points out that in some outer western Sydney electorates, up to 30% of voters are new arrivals from elsewhere in the city, chasing the dream, or perhaps the nightmare, of home ownership.
Both major parties are having to introduce themselves to thousands of voters in new-release suburbs.
The discontent about services and infrastructure seems to get stronger the closer you get to the edge of the city.
In Camden Labor’s candidate, Sally Quinell, says infrastructure is top concern for the electorate.
“The main issue is we are getting amazing population growth but the infrastructure hasn’t kept up. We desperately need a new high school in Gregory Hills, which Labor has committed to, and we need to put the Spring Farm Parkway [a 3km connector to the Hume Highway] on the fast track.”
The incumbent Liberal MP, Peter Sidgreaves, agrees infrastructure is a big issue but says the Coalition has plans in place, albeit well into the future. The main issue he says is cost of living, pointing to the Coalition’s suite of measures.
Work done by the NSW City Futures centre at the University of NSW on levels of mortgage stress before the federal election in May 2022 identified the federal seats of Macarthur, Hume, Werriwa and Fowler as areas where more than 70% of mortgage holders were in stress. This was defined as having less than 5% of their income uncommitted after housing and other costs.
And there have been nine interest rate rises since then.
In the state election, the equivalent seats are Camden (Liberal 7.3%), Wollondilly (Liberal 6%), Badgery’s Creek (Liberal 9.7%), Leppington (ALP 1.5%) Liverpool (ALP 17.4%) and Fairfield (16.8%).
Another unknown is the Coalition’s problem of longstanding MPs in key western Sydney seats retiring, such as those in Ryde (Victor Dominello) and Parramatta (Geoff Lee), and the extent to which support for the Coalition is tied to the local MP.
In Parramatta the mayor, Donna Davis, is running for Labor and enjoys a high profile against a relatively unknown Liberal candidate, the lawyer Katie Mullens.
“I have strong experience with advocacy and that’s what you need as a local member, to find a way to a solution,” she said.
“Housing affordability is a big issue in Parramatta. It’s not only about buying a home. We have a high percentage of renters in Parramatta. It’s about managing to stay in Parramatta.”
Education is also a hot-button topic and one that Labor has been focusing on throughout the campaign.
“We have a situation in Westmead where Parramatta high is oversubscribed and people just across the railway line from that school have to send their kids to Pendle Hill high,” she said.
Her opponent, Mullens, says she believes the electorate is receptive to the Coalition’s suite of rebates including toll relief, and she has had a positive response to premier Dominic Perrottet’s signature policy, the $850m children’s future fund.
The policy promises up to $400 in government contributions if parents deposit up to $1,000 annually into an account. There are also payments for households on family tax benefits. The result could be up to $49,000 in accounts by the time a child turns 18.
In more affluent seats including Ryde, where the retirement of Dominello has raised Labor’s hopes, the children’s future fund promise may counteract the drift to Labor.
Fria, 40, has one child and said she would probably stick with the Liberals, despite her concern about the traffic, roads and trains in the electorate.
“I don’t know that the other party would do much either,” she said. “The payments for kids, the $400, you know, it will set them up for life.”
The flipside of the retirements – the power of incumbency – could also see unexpected results in the most marginal western Sydney seats, which the polls suggest Labor should win at a canter.
In East Hills – the state’s most marginal seat (Liberal 0.1%) – the sitting Liberal MP, Wendy Lindsay, is regarded as a diligent member.
“Wendy helped me with an issue I had about some trees,” volunteers a man in fluoro enjoying a Friday beer at the Padstow Park hotel. He doesn’t want to give his name, but he has been swayed by the personal interaction.
Labor has also fielded a local with deep community roots, Kylie Wilkinson. She helped establish a women’s refuge and is on the board of Revesby Workers Club.
But neither party is expressing confidence, despite the Sydney Morning Herald’s Resolve poll this week showing a statewide 4.5% swing to Labor.
In Penrith,the Coalition might also benefit from the “devil you know” factor.
“To be quite honest, they are pretty much both the same,” said Graham Saddler, 64, who was shopping in Westfield Penrith last Friday. “[Nepean hospital] is terrible. Long waits. They just can’t seem to employ enough nurses to shorten the wait times.”
But despite this he said: “I think go with the devil you know.”
“[Liberal MP] Stuart Ayres has had his issues but he’s as good as the next person,” he said. Ayres resigned from the ministry amid the furore over the aborted appointment of the former Nationals leader John Barilaro to a high-paid trade commissioner job in New York.
“I liked Gladys – she just got screwed over by the wrong guy – but the guy who has taken her place seems reasonable.”
The Liberals are still hopeful of holding Penrith despite its 0.6% margin. It overlaps with one of only three seats to record a swing to the Liberals in the federal election last year.
Underscoring the Liberals’ determination, the party elder and former prime minister John Howard has been campaigning for several days beside Ayres. In a sign that Howard still has the pulling power, he was mobbed by locals wanting selfies with him as he lunched with Ayres at Westfield on Friday.
Labor’s candidate, Karen McKeown, also has recognition as a longstanding councillor. She is hopeful she can repeat her effort in 2019 and shave another five percentage points off Ayres’ vote on Saturday.
“I’ve worn out a pair of trainers and walking sandals doorknocking,” she says. “I think people are very engaged in this election. A lot of people have made up their minds. I am getting: ‘It’s time.’”
Nepean hospital remains an issue. “They have built a big shiny hospital up there but they can’t open beds because they didn’t allocate a cent for staff,” she said.
Labor is banking on its commitment to improve services through more teachers and nurses who will receive better pay through an end to the cap on public sector salaries. It’s hoping after 12 years, western Sydney has run out of patience with the Coalition.
