MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom breaks down Bellator’s top bouts. Today, we look at the main card for Bellator 301.
Bellator 301 takes place Friday at Wintrust Arena in Chicago. The main card airs on Showtime following prelims on MMA Junkie.
Welcome to MMAJunkie’s Quick Picks and Prognostications, where I’ll be giving brief, fight-day breakdowns for select main cards.
With that in mind, I hope these write-ups don’t come off as curt or dismissive, as my goal here is to offer quick picks and analysis in a digestible format. All odds listed are provided by Tipico Sportsbook.
If you’d like more detailed analysis from me, then feel free to check out my weekly show, The Protect Ya’ Neck Podcast.
So, without further ado…
Patricky Freire (-500) vs. Alexander Shabliy (+360)
Kicking off the main card on Showtime is a lightweight fight between Patricky Freire and Alexander Shabliy.
I’ve had my eye on Shabliy ever since his instant classic with Eduard Vartanyan back at ACB 49, so it makes me happy to see him getting main card slots on North American platforms.
Shabliy will also be getting a chance to further familiarize himself with MMA fans from this side of the world by facing a more notable name like Freire. Despite being the lesser-accomplished “Pitbull” brother on paper, Freire has proven to be a deceptively well-rounded fighter and tough out throughout the tenure of his Bellator career.
Although a slow start from either wouldn’t surprise me, I suspect that Shabliy’s pinpoint counters and explosive knees will end up finding their mark by the second round.
The pick is Shabliy by second-round TKO.
A.J. McKee (-270) vs. Sidney Outlaw (+210)
Filling out the main card is a 155-pound showdown between A.J. McKee and Sidney Outlaw.
McKee still seems to be finding his footing at his newfound home of lightweight, but the 28-year-old talent appears to fighting much healthier without having to make a drastic weight cut down to 145 pounds.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see Outlaw give McKee a tough fight due to his wrestling and submission grappling ability, but can’t help but see “Da Gun” fall prey to the classic trope of wrestlers dipping into southpaw kicks.
I’ll take McKee to score an opportunistic stoppage off a head kick in round 2.
Raufeon Stots (+100) vs. Danny Sabatello (-134)
Bellator 301 will also feature a battle between two bantamweights with bad blood when Raufeon Stots rematches Danny Sabatello on “The Italian Gangster’s” home turf.
Despite Stots opening as the odd-on favorite, public money has flipped the betting lines in favor of Sabatello.
Perhaps the price reflects the recency bias of results or the fact that their first fight was officially scored as a split decision, but those in the know about both scoring criteria and the history of judges like Doug Crosby (who has not judged any major MMA events since the weekend their first meeting, mind you) realize that Stots was the clear winner of that fight.
Sabatello is a scrappy fighter and talented wrestler, but his style is not the most friendly when it comes to the current language of the sport’s scoring criteria.
Couple that with the fact that a three-round fight gives Sabatello two fewer frames to work with, and I can’t help but side with Stots to get back on track with a crowd-silencing stoppage in round 2.
Sergio Pettis (+184) vs. Patchy Mix (-230)
The co-main event in Chicago features a bantamweight title bout between Sergio Pettis and Patchy Mix.
Despite feeling compelled to pick and play Pettis at these odds, I can’t ignore his propensity to expose his back in scrambles opposite a back-taking threat like Mix.
Aside from being massive for the weight class (and due to finish his career at featherweight), Mix is a talented grappler who is only getting better on the feet.
It’s been a while since we’ve seen Pettis face a southpaw, but he’s officially 3-1 opposite UFC-level lefties, for what that’s worth.
It’s dog or pass from a betting perspective, but I’ll take Mix to get to his winning positions early and often enough to secure rounds en route to a decision victory.
Yaroslav Amosov (-430) vs. Jason Jackson (+310)
The main event for Bellator 301 features a welterweight title fight between Yaroslav Amosov and Jason Jackson.
Despite Jackson being one of the best fighters at Bellator who you probably haven’t heard of, I have a hard time backing him against a fighter like Amosov.
Jackson is an underrated wrestler who can kind of do everything well, but Amosov’s fighting flexibility and scrambling pace are another animal entirely.
Although a statement finish wouldn’t hurt Amosov’s argument as one of the best welterweights on the planet, I suspect that Jackson hangs tough in what I imagine will be another dominant decision win for Amosov.
