MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom breaks down the MMA’s top bouts. Today, we look at the main event for Bellator 297.
Bellator 297 takes place Friday at Wintrust Arena in Chicago. The main card airs on Showtime following prelims on MMA Junkie.
Vadim Nemkov (16-2 MMA, 8-0 BMMA)
Staple info:
- Height: 6’0″ Age: 30 Weight: 205 lbs. Reach: 76″
- Last fight: Decision win over Corey Anderson (Nov. 18, 2022)
- Camp: Fedor Team (Russia)
- Stance/striking style: Orthodox/kickboxing
- Risk management: Good
Supplemental info:
+ Bellator light heavyweight champion
+ Multiple combat sambo championships
^ World, Russian and European titles
+ Judo black belt
+ 9 knockout victories
+ 3 submission wins
+ 8 first-round finishes
+ KO power
+ Solid boxing ability
+ Hard leg kicks
+ Excellent takedown ability
^ In the open or inside clinch
+ Good transitional grappler
^ Submissions, scrambles and strikes
Yoel Romero (15-6 MMA, 2-1 BMMA)
Staple info:
- Height: 6’0″ Age: 46 Weight: 205 lbs. Reach: 75.5″
- Last fight: TKO win over Melvin Manhoef (Sept. 23 2022)
- Camp: American Top Team (Florida)
- Stance/striking style: Southpaw/kickboxing
- Risk management: Fair
Supplemental info:
+ Olympic silver medalist (wrestling)
+ Multiple wrestling accolades
+ 13 KO victories
+ 4 first-round finishes
+ KO power
+ Incredibly athletic and agile
^ Closes distance quickly
+ Deceptive tempo changes
+ Variates looks and attack levels
^ Dangerous flying knees off fakes
+ Accurate left cross and right hook
+ Superb wrestling ability
+ Difficult to control in transit
^ Springs and scrambles to safety
Point of interest: The cost of counters
The main event for Bellator 297 features an intriguing light heavyweight title fight between two men who are familiar with the cost of counters.
Despite coming from a strong base in combat sambo, Vadim Nemkov offers a lot more than the casting punches that are typically associated with stylists from his side of the world.
Unlike his mentor, Fedor Emelianenko, Nemkov utilizes a lot more jabs and straight punches in his repertoire – though he is not beyond unleashing power shots from the rear once establishing his timing and rhythm. Taking a more Western boxing approach has also seemed to allow Nemkov to have a lot more level-changing opportunities in the takedown department.
When feeling in stride, the Stary Oskol product will continue to break regional stereotypes by attaching hard, Thai-style leg kicks to his combos and advances.
Although Nemkov historically reserves most of his damaging efforts for shots from the rear, the 30-year-old has gotten better at offering the more traditional competencies off of the lead side that a lot of Russian and Eastern European kickboxers show.
Nemkov has also been mixing in more shifting combinations into his attacks, but may think twice before getting too aggressive opposite a countering threat like Yoel Romero.
One of the most intimidating characters in any division, Romero not only carries the physique of a superhero, but he can move like one too. From the springboard-like aerial assaults he’s used to misdirect his opponent’s attention to the immediate explosions he hits once touching down on the mat, Romero is one of the most deceptive distance closers in the game.
Was thinking of this principle last week when I came across Yoel Romero scooping Israel Adesanya’s leg from the outside via his southpaw stance in order to briefly get the drop on the champ in what was ultimately a forgettable fight back at #UFC248 pic.twitter.com/M3KUg1uBhg
— Dan Tom (@DanTomMMA) September 23, 2021
Using changes in tempo to lull his opposition into a false state of security, Romero can quickly change gears at the drop of a dime, which is probably why most of his opponents are a bit more gun-shy when facing him.
The 46-year-old outlier consistently layers his craft, often getting in on a takedown only to abandon ship at the last second. Typically, this will shake up the defensive radar of a Romero foe, making the takedown a real threat and focus. And as soon as he can get his opponent to drop his level in anticipation of a shot, the former Olympian will then fake low to explode high, unleashing hell in the form of flying knees.
Although Romero’s athleticism and agility allow him to conduct himself like a video game character, he seemingly has taken the time to sharpen his boxing fundamentals in more recent years.
Whether Romero’s hitting inside parries to shift forward off of his rear hand or sitting back and looking to counter with check-hooks and crosses of his own, the perrennial title threat has made undeniable strides in this range. Even though Nemkov will have to be careful to not get sucked into the Cuban’s game, Romero will also have to be not too committed to rolling and returning with punches considering how it’s cost him both head kicks and unfavorable scorecards in the past.
Point of interest: Winning the wrestling
Considering both fighters’ grappling backgrounds, no one should be surprised if someone ends up shooting a takedown in this contest.
For my money, that fighter will likely be Nemkov.
Indoctrinated into sambo since the age of 7, Nemkov has gone on to earn European, Russian, and world titles in combat sambo as an adult.
Though the judo black belt is obviously competent with clinch takedowns given his experience with gi jackets, Nemkov appears to have really embraced freestyle wrestling work in between camps, training with freestyle wrestlers like Magomedkhan Magomedov (2018 junior world champion in men’s 97 kg.).
Subsequently, Nemkov seems to have a rock-solid first layer of offense and defense for takedowns, often looking to hit inside or outside trip reversals after hoisting opposition off of his hips. And even against acclaimed folkstyle wrestlers, Nemkov shows no fear in regards to initiating scrambles or shooting doubles in order to ensure strong closes to frames.
However, he could get more than he’s asking for if he changes levels on Romero.
Aside from the aforementioned flying knees in the previous section, Romero can be a deceptively dangerous grappling test.
Despite primarily using his wrestling for defense purposes during large portions of his career, Romero hasn’t been beyond grappling striking threats in past performances. In fact, since getting acclimated to the Bellator cage, Romero has been much more willing to go to the ground with opponents.
Should Nemkov find himself on the bottom from a countered kick, he’ll need to be careful how he plays his cards given Romero’s vaunted ground striking.
But regardless of any perceived stylistic superiorities, I suspect that both men will be nearly impossible to meaningfully score on unless hurt first.
Point of interest: Odds and opinions
The oddsmakers and public are siding with the sitting champion, listing Nemkov -550 and Romero +390 via FanDuel.
Although I don’t disagree with who is favored, this line is getting dangerously wide for a Romero fight.
Aside from his knack for finding finishes out of nowhere in Round 3, Romero is a finishing threat in almost all phases of the MMA. That said, I still find myself leaning the other way.
Nemkov has been a fighter I’ve been high on for some time now, and I suspect that his range striking and footwork could pose problems for the Cuban contender.
Should Nemkov lean more into his footwork and jab in the circular cage, then I also believe that he’ll have more opportunities to turn the tide standing with well placed kicks to the legs and head of Romero.
I’m not sure if Nemkov will produce a finish since, so I’ll officially pick the Russian to retain his title by decision.
Prediction: Nemkov by decision
For more on the card, visit MMA Junkie’s event hub for Bellator 297.
