MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom breaks down Bellator’s top bouts. Today, we look at the main card for Bellator 295.
Bellator 295 takes place Saturday at Neal S. Blaisdell Arena in Honolulu. The main card airs on Showtime following prelims on MMA Junkie.
Welcome to MMAJunkie’s Quick Picks and Prognostications, where I’ll be giving brief, fight-day breakdowns for select main cards.
With that in mind, I hope these write-ups don’t come off as curt or dismissive, as my goal here is to offer quick picks and analysis in a digestible format. All odds listed are provided by Tipico Sportsbook.
If you’d like more detailed analysis from me, then feel free to check out my weekly show, The Protect Ya’ Neck Podcast.
So, without further ado…
Yancy Medeiros (-350) vs. Charlie Leary (+250)
With Ray Borg’s bout against Kyoji Horiguchi getting canceled due to Borg’s inability to show up at the scales, Yancy Medeiros and Charlie Leary get moved to the main card.
Medeiros, who is a local warrior from Wai’anae, was finally able to get back on track last year with an impressive win over the always-tough, Emmanuel Sanchez.
Leary, on the other hand, is a scrappy English fighter who is currently trying to stop the bleeding of the three-fight losing skid. Leary is an aggressive striker who is also good about going second in exchanges, but suspect that his defense could cost him here.
I’ll pick Medeiros to find a knockout in the second round after surviving a fun opening five minutes.
Aaron Pico (-800) vs. James Gonzalez (+550)
Filling out the main card is a featherweight attraction between Aaron Pico and James Gonzalez.
Originally set to meet Otto Rodrigues, Pico will now meet Gonzalez, who will be stepping in on roughly a week’s notice.
Gonzalez hails from the Serra-Longo Fight Team and is a crafty southpaw with a serviceable submission game in his back pocket.
That said, unless Gonzalez is able to his opponent off guard with a club-n-sub off of a check hook, then I suspect that Pico’s power and skills will be too much down the stretch. I’ll officially pick Pico to find a stoppage by the second round, but I’ll be leaving some room to be surprised in this one.
Ilima-Lei Macfarlane (+120) vs. Kana Watanabe (-145)
The co-main event in Honolulu features a flyweight showdown between Ilima-Lei Macfarlane and Kana Watanabe.
Both women come from a grappling base but carry different styles of approach.
Watanabe is a strong judo player who has steadily been developing her submissions and strikes, while Macfarlane is a very flexible jiu-jitsu fighter who knows how to wrestle and work her game along the cage.
I suspect that the latter will come in handy for Macfarlane, who should also have an edge in the striking department. I’ll take the proud Hawaiian to make her home crowd happy by taking a competitive-but-clear win on the scorecards.
Raufeon Stots (+105) vs. Patchy Mix (-130)
The main event for Bellator 295 features a grand prix tournament final for all the marbles between Raufeon Stots and Patchy Mix.
Although Sergio Pettis is technically in the waiting wings, this fight between Stots and Mix feels every bit as important as the million-dollar prize attached to it.
I’m a big fan of Stots and have been calling for him to make waves in Bellator for some time now. The Roufusport rep has diversified his southpaw skills under his Texas coach, Yves Edwards, and carries killer wrestling credentials in his back pocket.
That said, I suspect that Stots’ propensity to turtle or give his neck on re-shots could cost him here. Not only can Mix finish fighters from font headlocks and back exposures, but the 29-year-old seems to be hitting another level since switching his camps over to Xtreme Couture in Las Vegas.
This is an incredibly tough fight to pick, but I’ll semi-reluctantly side with Mix to find an opportunistic submission within the first three rounds.
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