Bellator 292 predictions: Can Benson Henderson upset massive favorite Usman Nurmagomedov?

	Nurmagomedov vs. Henson	Musayev vs. Shabliy	Moldavsky vs. Vassell	Page vs. Yamauchi
MMA Junkie readers’ consensus picks 23-14	Nurmagomedov (68%)	Shabliy (57%)	Moldavsky (69%)	Page (66%)
George Garcia @MMAjunkieGeorge 27-13	Nurmagomedov	Shabliy	Vassell	Page
Nolan King @mma_kings 26-14	Nurmagomedov	Musayev	Moldavsky	Page
Matt Erickson @MattE 26-14	Nurmagomedov	Musayev	Moldavsky	Page
Matthew Wells @MrMWells 26-14	Nurmagomedov	Musayev	Moldavsky	Page
Ken Hathaway @kenshathaway 25-15 2018, 2022 Champion	Nurmagomedov	Shabliy	Moldavsky	Page
Farah Hannoun @Farah_Hannoun 24-16	Nurmagomedov	Musayev	Moldavsky	Page
Danny Segura @dannyseguratv 24-16	Nurmagomedov	Musayev	Moldavsky	Yamauchi
Simon Samano @SJSamano 24-16	Nurmagomedov	Musayev	Moldavsky	Yamauchi
Mike Bohn @MikeBohn 23-17 2014 Champion	Nurmagomedov	Musayev	Moldavsky	Page
Brian Garcia @thegoze 22-18 2017 Champion	Nurmagomedov	Musayev	Moldavsky	Page
Abbey Subhan @kammakaze 22-18	Nurmagomedov	Musayev	Moldavsky	Page

Bellator is back in its Northern California home base this week with a lightweight title fight at the top of the lineup.

Bellator 292 takes place Friday at SAP Center in San Jose, Calif. The main card airs on Showtime following prelims on MMA Junkie.

(Click here to open a PDF of the staff picks grid in a separate window.)

In the main event, lightweight champion Usman Nurmagomedov (16-0 MMA, 5-0 BMMA) puts his title on the line for the first time since he won the belt this past November against Patricky Freire. He takes on former UFC and WEC lightweight champ and two-time Bellator title challenger Benson Henderson (30-11 MMA, 7-6 BMMA) in a fight that doubles as a quarterfinal bout in Bellator’s lightweight grand prix.

Nurmagomedov is a massive favorite at -2500 at Tipico Sportsbook; the comeback on Henderson is +900. Henderson never has been worse than a +350 underdog in his UFC and Bellator career until now. Given the odds, it’s not surprising our 11 editors, writers, radio hosts and videographers have Nurmagomedov as a unanimous pick at 11-0.

In the co-feature, Tofiq Musayev (20-4 MMA, 1-0 BMMA) takes on Alexander Shabliy (22-3 MMA, 3-0 BMMA) on the other side of the lightweight grand prix bracket. Shabliy is a slight favorite at the betting window, but our pickers may have taken into account Musayev’s 27-second KO win in his Bellator debut, and they have him with a big 9-2 picks lead.

Also on the main card, former interim heavyweight champion Valentin Moldavsky (11-2 MMA, 6-1 BMMA) will try to make a case for another shot at champ Ryan Bader when he takes on Linton Vassell (23-8 MMA, 11-5 BMMA), who has won four straight. Moldavsky is more than a 3-1 favorite, though, and is a near-unanimous pick at 10-1.

And to open the main card, Michael Page (20-2 MMA, 16-2 BMMA) is just a slight betting favorite at -125 in his welterweight bout against Goiti Yamauchi (28-5 MMA, 14-4 BMMA). The winner will be in prime position to ask for a title shot. But despite the close numbers from the oddsmakers, our pickers have Page with a big 9-2 lead.

In the MMA Junkie consensus picks, Nurmagomedov (80 percent), Shabliy (57 percent), Moldavsky (69 percent), and Page 66 percent) are the choices.

Check out all the picks above.

For more on the card, visit MMA Junkie’s event hub for Bellator 292.