Belgium is gearing up for federal elections this Sunday, coinciding with the European Union vote. The country, known for its complex coalition governments, faces a challenging political landscape with the rise of both far-right and far-left parties.
Divided along linguistic lines, Belgium comprises francophone Wallonia in the south and Dutch-speaking Flanders in the north. The formation of governments typically involves coalitions representing both regions.
Current polls indicate a potential shift in power dynamics, with Flemish nationalist parties expected to secure significant votes in Flanders. The far-right Vlaams Belang, advocating for Flanders' independence, is projected to lead with over 25% of the vote, followed closely by the right-wing New Flemish Alliance (N-VA) at around 20%.
In Wallonia, the Socialist Party is anticipated to secure a quarter of the votes, ahead of liberal and far-left parties. Wallonia, facing economic challenges compared to prosperous Flanders, traditionally favors national unity due to economic concerns.
If these projections hold true, forming a government could prove arduous, particularly if the Flemish nationalists align with extreme-right parties, potentially isolating them from moderate coalition talks.
The upcoming elections will not only determine the federal parliament but also regional parliaments and European Parliament members. Former caretaker Prime Minister Sophie Wilmes has expressed reluctance to engage in coalition talks with far-right or far-left parties, warning of significant challenges if the N-VA and Vlaams Belang form an alliance.
The surge of Vlaams Belang reflects a broader trend of populist and far-right parties gaining traction across the EU. Despite its popularity, Vlaams Belang has been excluded from government participation by other Flemish parties.
Political scientist Laura Jacobs attributes Vlaams Belang's success to its ability to tap into voter discontent and mistrust of the political establishment in Flanders. The party's stance of not being part of the current government has resonated with disillusioned voters.
Post-election, uncertainties loom over potential alliances between Socialists, the radical left, and the Greens, particularly due to the Workers Party's ambiguous positions on Western support for Ukraine and NATO.
