The national spotlight will shine upon Ford Field on Saturday night when the Detroit Lions host the Denver Broncos in a prime-time Week 15 matchup. The 9-4 Lions have a chance to clinch a playoff berth with a win, but the 7-6 Broncos won’t be an easy opponent.
Denver has rocketed up from a 1-5 start in their first season under head coach Sean Payton. In order to get more info on how the Broncos have arrived at their record in an interesting season, I exchanged questions and answers with my colleague, Jon Heath of Broncos Wire.
Heath offered up some info and perspective on the Broncos, as well as a final score prediction.
How did the Broncos so successfully recover from the trouncing against Miami?
The offense has stayed relatively steady for most of the season. Earlier this year, the defense was a huge liability (as evidenced by allowing 70 to the Dolphins). Broncos star safety Justin Simmons was not available for that game and Josey Jewell, their best inside linebacker, left the game injured. The Broncos also did not have Baron Browning, their best pass rusher, or P.J. Locke, now a starting safety, due to their respective injuries. Simmons, Jewell, Browning and Locke have since returned and they are all key starters.
Denver also made several changes to the starting lineup that were not forced by injury. Outside linebacker Randy Gregory was traded and fellow edge defender Frank Clark was cut. Browning and Jonathon Cooper now start in their place. The Broncos also benched outside cornerback Damarri Mathis and replaced him with Fabian Moreau. Denver then cut slot cornerback Essang Bassey and replaced him with Ja’Quan McMillian.
Changing their personnel on the edge and in the secondary improved the defense, and the players returning from injury gave the unit a big boost. Five defensive players who started in Miami have lost their starting jobs and the replacements have helped the Broncos turn their season around.
How is the Sean Payton/Russell Wilson experiment playing out so far?
It’s going pretty well overall. Wilson had the worst season of his career under Nathaniel Hackett last year, perhaps in part because Hackett (seemingly) wanted Wilson to be a pocket passer. Payton has tailored the offense to Wilson’s strengths, giving the QB more opportunities to roll out and make plays with his legs. Payton has emphasized a run-heavy approach, and Wilson is a capable game manager. Wilson has the arm strength to make big throws but his timing has been off more often than not when he goes deep.
Courtland Sutton is by far Wilson’s favorite target, and he’s tied for second in the NFL with 10 touchdown catches this year. Wilson has the smarts and mobility to make important plays when it matters most, and he’s looked much better than last season. Payton might not view him as the long-term option, but he’s winning with Wilson at the moment, and that’s all that matters in 2023.
What is your biggest worry about playing the Lions?
Definitely Detroit’s rushing attack. Denver’s defense has made big improvements since Week 4, but defending the run remains the biggest weakness. The Lions rank fifth with 137.5 rushing yards per game and the Broncos rank last against the run, allowing 144 yards per game. Granted, their season-long average will be skewed by the Dolphins game, but the eye test suggests teams can still run on Denver when game script allows it. If Detroit is able to build a lead, the Broncos could be in trouble.
What does Denver do well that doesn't get enough attention?
The Broncos rank 19th with 34 sacks this season, a number that doesn’t jump off the page. Vance Joseph loves to blitz, though, and Lions quarterback Jared Goff seems to have a tendency to struggle under pressure. The Broncos have been getting to the quarterback with defensive back blitzes in recent weeks (Locke has a sack in three straight games and McMillian has a sack in each of the last two weeks). Disguising rushers is an underrated element of Joseph’s defensive turnaround, and it might cause some problems for Goff on Saturday.
