Welcome to the Monday, January 22, 2024 Brew.
By: Juan Garcia de Paredes
Here’s what’s in store for you as you start your day:
- More than 40% of 2022 incumbents who ran for re-election faced no opponents in at least one election stage; less than 2% faced opponents who raised more than $5M
- Eleven candidates are running in the top-two primary in California’s 20th Congressional District
- 2023 state legislative special sessions recap
75 U.S. House incumbents had opponents who raised more than $1 million in 2022—that’s 19.53% of all incumbents who ran for re-election
Campaign fundraising doesn’t mean everything, but it can be a useful proxy for measuring how competitive races are between incumbents and well-funded challengers.
We recently looked at how much money in contributions the candidates running against incumbents raised. We used finance data from the Federal Election Commission (FEC) to analyze how many incumbents faced what we define as competitive races in 2020 and 2022 based on this approach.
First, we looked at whether an incumbent had opponent(s) in the primary, the general election, or both. For incumbents who had opposition in at least one election stage, we looked at whether those challengers raised more than $10,000, $100,000, $500,000, $1 million, or $5 million in the course of the election cycle, to get a better idea of the level of opposition those incumbents faced.
Here are some highlights of what we found.
75 U.S. House incumbents had opponents who raised more than $1 millon in 2022—that’s 19.53% of all incumbents who ran for re-election
In 2022, 384 U.S. House incumbents ran for re-election. Most of those incumbents—317, or 83%—faced opponents who raised at least $10,000 in at least one election stage (the primary, the general election, or both.)
Some of those 317 incumbents faced opponents who raised much more than $10,000, though. Seventy-five (19.53% of all who ran) faced opponents who raised more than $1 millon in at least one election stage. And of those, five (1.3% of all incumbents who ran) faced primary or general election opponents who raised more than $5 million.
In 2020, when 397 incumbents ran for re-election, 335 (85%) faced opponents who raised at least $10,000. Of those, 107 incumbents (26.95% of all who ran) faced opponents who raised more than $1 million. Sixteen incumbents, or about 4% of all incumbents who ran that year, faced opponents who raised more than $5 million.
For context, the average House incumbent who ran for re-election raised $2.6 million in 2022 and $2.5 million in 2020.
Around 5% of incumbents faced challengers who raised more than they did
Most incumbents who faced opponents had a fundraising advantage over them, but not all of them did.
Looking at all incumbents with opponents who raised at least $10,000 in 2022, 21 faced opponents who raised more than the incumbents did—12 Democrats and nine Republicans. That’s 5.5% of all incumbents who ran that year.
In 2020, 33 incumbents (8%)—11 Democrats and 22 Republicans—faced opponents who raised more contributions than the incumbents did.
Click below to learn more.
Eleven candidates are running in the top-two primary in California’s 20th Congressional District
Throughout the year, we’ll bring you coverage of the most compelling primaries—the battleground elections we expect to have a meaningful effect on the balance of power in governments or to be particularly competitive.
Last week, we previewed the March 5 Republican primary for Texas’ 23rd Congressional District, where the state Republican Party censured the incumbent—Tony Gonzales. You can catch our previous coverage of other battleground races here.
Today, we’re looking at the top-two primary for California’s 20th Congressional District, also set for March 5. Three candidates lead in media attention: Mike Boudreaux (R), Vince Fong (R), and David Giglio (R).
The primary is taking place following former Rep. Kevin McCarthy’s (R) resignation in December 2023. McCarthy resigned in the wake of an October 2023 vote that removed him as speaker. A special election to serve the rest of McCarhty’s term will take place on May 21, with the special primary taking place on March 19.
Boudreaux, Fong, and Giglio said they will run in the special election as well. There is no official list of candidates for that race yet.
Boudreaux, a 37-year member of the Tulare County Sheriff’s Department, said he respects McCarthy’s record in office but would offer voters a new alternative. Boudreaux said he would draw from his experience as sheriff, including his policy disagreements with the state government, to advocate for the San Joaquin Valley in Congress. He highlighted border security, immigration, and ensuring the San Joaquin Valley received its fair share of water as key priorities.
Fong, a former McCarthy staffer who is running with McCarthy’s endorsement, said he will continue McCarthy’s record of service. Fong said his eight years in the California Assembly and working for both McCarthy and his predecessor Bill Thomas (R) gave him the experience to deliver results. Fong identified access to water and energy, increasing the security of the southern border, and opposing increases to tax and spending rates as priorities.
Giglio describes himself as an America First candidate, a term often associated with the platform of former President Donald Trump (R) and candidates who say they support Trump’s agenda. Giglio said he is running to challenge McCarthy’s record and said that he was the only candidate to enter the race before McCarthy announced he would not seek re-election. Giglio said his policy priorities included increasing the security of the southern border, lowering crime rates, and ending abuses of power by the federal government.
Ben Dewell (No party preference), Stan Ellis (R), T.J. Esposito (No party preference), Kyle Kirkland (R), Kelly Kulikoff (R), Andy Morales (D), Matt Stoll (R), and Marisa Wood (D) are also running in the primary. The top two finishers in the primary—regardless of partisan affiliation—will advance to the general election on Nov. 5, 2024.
As of Jan. 3, 2024, The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales, and Larry J. Sabato’s Crystal Ball each rated the general election Solid/Safe Republican. In the 2020 presidential election, Donald Trump (R) won the district 61% to 36% over Joe Biden (D).
2023 state legislative special sessions recap
Although every state held legislative sessions last year, just over half held special sessions in 2023. Governors or the legislature call special or extraordinary sessions over a specific subject matter during or after a regular session.
Nineteen states held one special session. Texas held the most special sessions in 2023 with five. In 2022, Florida, Virginia, and West Virginia had the most special legislative sessions, with three each.
Here’s the list of the 26 states that held special sessions last year along with the session dates:
Forty-six state legislatures meet every year. The other four states—Montana, Nevada, North Dakota, and Texas—meet in odd-numbered years. The state’s constitution, a statute, or the legislature may set the length of a session, which varies by state.
