Key matchup
Between 2023 first-round pick Bijan Robinson (No. 8 overall) and 2022 fifth-round pick Tyler Allgeier, the Falcons are eighth in the NFL in rushing, averaging 129.8 yards per game. They’re 5-2 when they exceed that average and 2-6 when they don’t.
Robinson has 188 carries for 873 yards (4.6 yards per carry) and four touchdowns. His production has been typical of many rookies on losing teams — four games of 90 or more yards, including 19 carries for 124 yards in a victory over the Packers in Week 2, but five games of fewer than 40 yards, including seven carries for 11 yards in a loss to the Panthers in Week 15.
Robinson (12 carries, 72 yards) and Allgeier (9-69) combined for 21 carries for 141 yards in a 29-10 win over the Colts last week, including Allgeier’s 31-yard touchdown run.
The Bears counter with the No. 1 rushing defense in the NFL (80.7 yards allowed per game). They have yet to allow a 100-yard rusher this season. Lions running back David Montgomery’s 76 yards on 12 carries in a 31-26 victory on Nov. 19 at Ford Field is the most against the Bears this season.
Trending
The Bears are coming off a breakout rushing game against the Cardinals: a season-high 250 yards on 39 carries, led by running back Khalil Herbert (20 carries, 112 yards, one touchdown) and quarterback Justin Fields (9-97, one touchdown). The Bears rushed for 88 yards on 27 carries against the Browns the previous week in a game they led most of the way.
The Falcons are 15th in rushing defense (110.9 yards per game) but ninth in yards per carry (3.9) after holding the Colts’ Jonathan Taylor to 18 carries for 43 yards and a one-yard touchdown run last week.
Player to watch
Falcons running back/kick returner Cordarrelle Patterson is the only player in history to return a kick for a touchdown both for the Bears and against them. He returned two kickoffs for touchdowns with the Bears — against the Saints in 2019 and the Vikings in 2020. He has returned three kickoffs for touchdowns against them, with three different teams: the Vikings (2013), the Patriots (2018) and the Falcons (2022).
Last year against the Bears, Patterson lost a fumble on a kickoff to set up a Bears touchdown that gave them a 17-7 lead — then returned the ensuing kickoff 103 yards for a touchdown that sparked the Falcons to a 27-24 victory at Mercedes-Benz Stadium.
Patterson has returned only seven kickoffs this season but could have more chances in a cold-weather game at Soldier Field.
X-factor
The Falcons, a dome team from the South, have not won a game in cold weather (below 40 degrees) since 2009. They are 0-6 since then, including losses at Baltimore (17-9) and Buffalo (29-15) last season.
