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USA Today Sports Media Group
USA Today Sports Media Group
Sport
Alyssa Barbieri, Brendan Sugrue and Ryan Fedrau

Bears vs. Bills game picks: Can Chicago pull off a Christmas upset in Week 16?

The Chicago Bears (3-11) will battle the Buffalo Bills (11-3) on Sunday, where the Bears are looking to snap a seven-game losing streak.

Chicago is coming off a narrow 25-20 loss to the one-loss Philadelphia Eagles, where the Bears kept things close for four quarters. Ultimately, a more-talented Eagles roster won out. But it was the kind of effort — coupled with Justin Fields’ impressive outing — that makes you optimistic for the future of this team.

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Now, Chicago will host another Super Bowl contender in Buffalo. The Bills are 8-point road favorites against the Bears, according to Tipico Sportsbook. The over/under is set for 40.

Can Chicago pull off a Christmas Eve upset in Week 16? Our Bears Wire staff share their game picks for Saturday’s matchup.

Alyssa Barbieri (8-6): Bills 27, Bears 21

Quinn Harris/Getty Images

Fresh off a meeting with the red-hot Eagles, the Bears face another test when they welcome the Bills to town in what’s gearing up to be brutal weather conditions. Like last week, I’m not expecting Chicago to pull off the upset. But, unlike last week, I think they can keep things close with Buffalo. I mean, that’s what we’ve seen from Matt Eberflus’ team all season. All but four of their 11 losses have been by one score, including against some of the league’s top talent.

The weather conditions are shaping up to make this matchup an interesting one. There’s projected to be a sub-zero wind chill with gusts up to 40 miles per hour. Which means we could see a whole lot of running in this game, which certainly gives the Bears (and their No. 1 run game) an advantage. It certainly helps that Chicago is getting back Khalil Herbert. This is setting up to be another game where Fields will look to utilize his athleticism. Translation: Take the over on Fields rushing yards.

While I think the weather (and the effort) will keep this game relatively close, the Bills should ultimately pull off the win as they have the more talented roster and Super Bowl aspirations. But hopefully this game gives us some more Fields magic, more player development and closer to maintaining that No. 2 overall pick.

Brendan Sugrue (7-7): Bills 30, Bears 24

Quinn Harris/Getty Images

The Chicago Bears are playing one of the hottest NFL teams on a frigid day at Soldier Field in late December during a lost season. Hey, didn’t we just do this last week? Now that they’ve played the NFC’s best, they’ll take on the AFC’s best in the Buffalo Bills and it will likely be a similar outcome as to what we witnessed last week.

Perhaps we see a slow start from each team, given the bone-chilling cold that’s coming into Chicagoland this weekend, but sooner or later, the Bills will heat the field up with their dynamic offense, led by the big man in red working on Christmas Eve. No, it’s not Santa Claus, he has prior engagements obviously. It’s star quarterback Josh Allen.

Can we really expect the secondary to hold up two weeks in a row against an elite quarterback and wide receiver duo with Allen and Stefon Diggs? Sadly, I can’t put my money on that. They’re also down rookie Jack Sanborn, which could be a major blow for the middle of the defense after seeing what the Eagles offense was able to accomplish when he left the field.

For the Bears offense, they’re getting some help back with Khalil Herbert and it should result in better overall production. In the four games Herbert missed, the Bears averaged just 18 points per game. In the four games prior with Herbert, they averaged 31. This is a team built for the ground game and his return will provide a boost. Can the offensive line, presumably down two more players, handle the Bills’ front seven though? That’s not going to be a fun task.

We’re likely in for another competitive game, which at this point, is what everyone just wants to see. Expect a close game for the first two quarters before the Bills pull away.

Ryan Fedrau (8-6): Bears 17, Bills 14

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It’s going to be ugly, cold, and shocking — because I’m predicting the Bears to upset the Buffalo Bills this weekend. In one of the coldest weekends in NFL history, the Bears will be hosting the coldest game. The windy city will go back to their roots, Bears’ football. 

Why am I picking the Bears? They can run the ball well. Justin Fields has been a killer to defenses this season with his legs and David Montgomery is fantastic. If those two get going early, it’ll be a Christmas “eve” miracle. 

The Bills are a great football team and Super Bowl favorites, but they’ll face one more loss this regular season, and that’s on Saturday against the Bears.

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