On Christmas Eve, the Chicago Bears (3-11) will take on the Buffalo Bills (11-3) with a chance to play spoiler and delay Buffalo clinching the AFC East.
For the Bears, Justin Fields is inching toward the NFL record for most rushing yards in a season by a quarterback. It’s also a homecoming for defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier, a member of the 1985 Bears.
Here are five things to watch in Chicago’s Week 16 matchup – and a final prediction.
1
Another snowy game for Buffalo
After traveling to Detroit earlier in the season (to play a home game) and hosting the Dolphins in the snow last week, the Bills appear to be a magnet for bad weather. Experts in Chicago predict nearly six inches of snowfall before kickoff, along with 40+ mph winds.
Sunday is a big game for Buffalo. A win over the Bears clinches the AFC East for the Bills. So, Chicago will look to play spoiler in a cold, snowy, and windy Christmas Eve game.
2
Justin Fields is closing in on most rushing yards for a QB in a season
Fields is 207 rushing yards away from breaking Lamar Jackson’s 2019 NFL rushing record of 1,206 rushing yards. On Sunday, Fields will take the field with 1,000 rushing yards despite missing one game this season due to injury.
Three games are remaining for Fields to break the record. To set the record, he only needs 69 yards rushing in the next three games (including Buffalo). Fun fact: Fields passed former Bears quarterback Bobby Douglass who is fifth-all-time with 968 yards rushing during the 1972 season.
3
The return of Khalil Herbert
The Bears are expected to activate Khalil Herbert off injured reserve ahead of Saturday’s game. Head coach Matt Eberflus said he expects Herbert to be active against the Bills after recovering from a hip injury, which sidelined him for the last four games.
The second-year running back has been the most effective runner behind Fields. Herbert has 643 rushing yards in 10 games, five touchdowns, and averages six yards per carry, the most among active running backs.
4
Establishing the run against Buffalo's defense
The Bills have the sixth best rushing defense in football, but they’re coming off a Week 15 win over the Dolphins where they surrendered 188 yards rushing. Miami running back Raheem Mostert rushed for 136 yards and averaged 8.0 yards per carry against Buffalo’s defense.
The Bears will look to do the same with the combination of Justin Fields, David Montgomery, and Khalil Herbert. Chicago is averaging 186.9 yards per game (best in the NFL) and 5.4 yards per carry. The Bills play a base defense with five defensive backs – it will be interesting to see how long they can run a nickel package against the Bears’ rushing attack in chilly Chicago conditions.
5
Homecoming for Bills defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier
Bills defensive coordinator played for the Bears from 1981-85, winning Super Bowl XX as a defensive back on the legendary ’85 Bears team. Next time you watch the Super Bowl Shuffle, look for Frazier (#21) in the background dancing.
Frazier interviewed for the Bears vacant head coaching job last offseason, and there were reports that he was considered a frontrunner and his ties to the organization certainly helped matters. But, ultimately, the job went to another defensive mind in Matt Eberflus.
6
Final Prediction: Bills 26, Bears 19
The weather should help the Bears, and Justin Fields will continue to be a playmaker. But the defense will lose this game for Chicago. The Bears are asking Jaylon Johnson to cover Stefon Diggs with a club on his hand, and they’re also without cornerback Kindle Vildor. And for a team that was thin at linebacker, it’s only gotten worse as middle linebacker Jack Sanborn was placed on IR this week.
If Buffalo isn’t the best team in the NFL, they’re one of the best teams. Chicago will challenge them in the first three quarters, but they will fall short, allowing the Bills to clinch the AFC East.
