A bear call spread is a type of vertical spread, meaning that two options within the same expiry month are being traded.
One call option is being sold, which generates a credit for the trader. Another call option is bought to provide protection against an adverse move.
The sold call is always closer to the stock price than the bought call.
As the name suggests, this trade does best when the stock declines after the trade is open.
However, there can be many cases where this trade can make a profit if the stock stays flat and even if it rises slightly.
Bear call spreads are risk defined trades, there are no naked options here, so they can be traded in retirement accounts such as an IRA.
Traders should have a bearish outlook on the stock and ideally look to enter when the stock has a high implied volatility rank.
Dollar General (DG) is showing an IV Rank of 86.61% in advance of their earnings announcement on Thursday before the market open.
Assuming we have a bearish outlook on DG stock, we can run the Barchart’s Bear Call Spread Screener and find the following results:
Below are the full parameters for this scan:
Let’s analyze the first result which has the highest probability at 82.9%.
This Bear Call Spread on DG stock involves selling the $170-strike September 8th call and buying the $180-strike call.
That spread could be sold for around $0.90 which means the trader would receive $90 into their account. The maximum risk is $9.10 for a total profit potential of 9.89% with a probability of 82.9%.
The breakeven price is $170.90. This can be calculated by taking the short call strike and adding the premium received.
As the spread is $10 wide, the maximum risk in the trade is 10 – 0.90 x 100 = $910.
The Barchart Technical Opinion rating is a 100% Sell with a Strengthening short term outlook on maintaining the current direction.
Long term indicators fully support a continuation of the trend.
The market is approaching oversold territory. Be watchful of a trend reversal.
Let’s analyze another result from the screener, this time the one at the bottom which has the highest return potential.
This Bear Call Spread on DG stock involves selling the $155-strike September 1st call and buying the $162.50-strike call.
That spread could be sold for around $2.70 which means the trader would receive $270 into their account. The maximum risk is $4.80. for a total profit potential of 56.25% with a probability of 56.9%.
The breakeven price is $157.70.
Mitigating Risk
Thankfully, Bear Call Spreads are risk defined trades, so they have some built in risk management.
The most the first example can lose is $910 and the second example could lose a maximum of $480.
Position sizing is important so that a 100% loss does not cause more than a 1-2% loss in total portfolio value.
Bear Call Spreads can also contain early assignment risk, so be mindful of that if the stock breaks through the short strike and it’s getting close to expiry.
Trades held over earnings can be risky as they leave little room for adjustments if the stock makes a large, adverse move.
Please remember that options are risky, and investors can lose 100% of their investment.
This article is for education purposes only and not a trade recommendation. Remember to always do your own due diligence and consult your financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
On the date of publication, Gavin McMaster did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
