Although the next general election may be more than a year away, the main parties are already beginning to outline positions on key issues – a process likely to intensify with the start of conference season this weekend.
The Liberal Democrats are the first to gather on Saturday, with the party faithful converging on Bournemouth, followed by the Conservatives next weekend in Manchester and then Labour and the Scottish National party. Here is what to expect:
The Conservatives
October 1 – 4, Manchester
The narrative they want
A party that has been in government since 2010, but wants to project itself as the agent of change. Rishi Sunak hopes to sell the conference as a reset, and to answer opposition jibes that he is “inaction man”, pointing to this week’s wholesale watering down of the Tories’ green credentials.
With the conference slogan “Long-term decisions for a brighter future”, expect to hear a lot about the long-term vision of the prime minister, whose natural political and economic instincts were tempered by arriving in No 10 at a moment of crisis.
Battles to lookout for
Unease and perhaps even outright rebellion could surface from green-minded Tories alarmed by Sunak’s watering down of net-zero policies. The concerns expressed by major businesses such as Ford may well also filter through. Long-term divisions over HS2 could play out amid impatience with the government’s ambiguous position.
Rising stars to watch
Theresa May’s former chief of staff Nick Timothy is hardly a new face, but as the Tory candidate for the safe seat of West Suffolk, some tip him as a coming force in future battles for the party’s soul. He’s listed to appear in at least eight fringe events. Rupert Harrison, George Osborne’s former special adviser and another would-be MP will also be speaking.
What they’ll be discussing at the fringe
As ever, Brexit – with the Spectator-hosting an event titled “Has Brexit Failed?” Discussions around welfare, an area where the Tories could seek to challenge Labour in an election, will also be interesting. The home secretary, Suella Braverman, will appear at just one event, which will be monitored for any hints of thinly veiled leadership ambitions.
Old flames having an influence
Liz Truss. The former prime minister whose disastrous mini-budget overshadowed last year’s conference returns as part of her campaign to insist that she was right all along. She’ll be an unwelcome presence for Sunak and party strategists, although the reaction of the grassroots faithful, who overwhelmingly elected her as leader in the 2022 contest, could well be very different.
Labour
October 8 – 11, Liverpool
The narrative they want
Labour’s huge poll lead has made its party conference unmissable this year. Business leaders, thinktanks across the political spectrum and high-profile figures are keen to get a taste of what things could be like under a Labour government.
From Sunday 8 October to Wednesday 11 October in Liverpool, Keir Starmer and his freshly reshuffled shadow cabinet will be keen to demonstrate competence, intensity and unity as the party votes on the policy document that will lay the groundwork for its manifesto.
Battles to lookout for
Labour has already put “stable public finances and prudent spending” at the heart of its offer in the 2024 manifesto, with no additional money for sweeping childcare reforms and a potential delay to returning to the 0.7% aid target.
With policies like wealth taxes and rent controls not included in the final policy document, battles could unfold over Labour’s new deal for working people, which some insiders expect to be watered down further.
Housing may also be an area of contention, after the party was accused of staging a U-turn over rent controls, and its pledge to restore social housing to the second largest tenure type was not included in its final policy document.
Rising stars to watch
All eyes will be on Labour’s prospective candidates, who are expected to be assembling at conference, sharing notes on campaigning, learning from senior party officials and mingling with business leaders as they prepare for the election campaign.
Rising stars within the party will also be appearing at a number of fringe events and rallies including Shabana Mahmood, the new shadow justice secretary, Peter Kyle, shadow science secretary, Sarah Jones and Abena Oppong-Asare.
Old flames having an influence
Jeremy Corbyn and Jamie Driscoll will be expected to make appearances at the world transformed festival (TWT) that runs alongside the main party conference, as Labour’s leftwing continues to coordinate their fightback.
Their appearances will be hotly anticipated this year since Driscoll is preparing to run as an independent candidate for the north-east mayoralty after he was blocked from standing for Labour. Corbyn is apparently deciding on whether to run in the London mayoralty race or stand as an independent candidate for his Islington North constituency.
Asked what he was hoping to achieve at TWT, Corbyn told the Guardian: “To show that there is huge demand for transformative change, and that there are still people willing to fight for it. Upholding the status quo won’t lift children out of poverty, tackle the housing crisis, or save our climate from catastrophe.”
The Scottish National party
October 15 – 17, Aberdeen
The narrative they want
This will be Humza Yousaf’s first party conference as leader – and the first organised by Murray Foote as newly appointed chief executive.
Both will want to send a message that the turbulence of the past six months – which saw a divisive leadership contest to replace Nicola Sturgeon and arrests of senior party figures as part of the police investigation into SNP finances – is at an end.
Expect a move away from the rhetorical flourish and centralisation that critics say characterised the Sturgeon era, to a more straightforward, deliverable agenda from a unified team involving members at all levels.
Battles to lookout for
The message of unity faces an immediate challenge as Yousaf urges the membership to back his new independence strategy – that he will seek independence negotiations with the UK government if his party wins the most seats in Scotland at the next general election – with senior party figures already attacking the plans.
Rising stars
Màiri McAllan entered Yousaf’s cabinet just two years after being elected, and her role as net zero secretary will be tested as she realigns the party’s position following Sunak’s devastating climate U-turn.
What they’ll be discussing at the fringe
There have been sharp internal attacks on the SNP’s governing partnership with the Scottish Greens over the summer, with one veteran MSP bemoaning the “green tail wagging the yellow dog”. Some members blame the Greens for controversial policies like the deposit return scheme and gender recognition reform, now in the courts after the UK government vetoed Holyrood’s bill.
Old flames having an influence
Sturgeon has maintained a relatively low profile since she stepped down, and her relationship with Yousaf remains warm. More interesting will be how Foote matches Peter Murrell’s renowned talent for razzamatazz at party events.
The Liberal Democrats
September 23 – 26, Bournemouth
The narrative they want
Since their last autumn conference way back in 2019 – subsequent ones were scuppered by Covid and the Queen’s funeral – Ed Davey’s party has largely troubled the headlines only when winning byelections. They gather armed with a “pre-manifesto” of ideas intended to give voters more of a sense of who they really are.
Battles to lookout for
Unlike the rigidly choreographed Labour and Tory events, Lib Dem conferences are genuinely democratic, and you can never quite tell which issue might raise some tensions. After the disastrous 2019 election, in which they promised to reverse Brexit, that subject has been firmly kicked into the long grass – although some activists now think it’s time to resume the party’s role as the champions of Europe.
Rising stars
The four MPs who overturned huge Tory majorities in byelections since 2021 – Sarah Green, Helen Morgan, Richard Foord and Sarah Dyke – will raise spirits. Josh Babarinde, who could well win in Eastbourne, has a notably over-achieving CV, including an OBE for setting up a social enterprise working with young offenders.
What they’ll be discussing at the fringe
Boldly named events include one titled simply: “Shouldn’t we be doing better?” At the same time, the main conference hall will debate complex motions on everything from voter ID to sustainability in fashion and, in a very Lib Dem detail, a standing order amendment to limit the number of standing order amendments that can be discussed at any single conference.
Old flames having an influence
The Lib Dems have plenty of former leaders, but those who do attend, such as Tim Farron and Menzies Campbell, are scrupulously loyal. If there is a spectre at the feast it is the venue itself. The party’s last autumn conference was also held in Bournemouth and saw excited briefings to journalists that the party could win between 100 and 200 seats in the upcoming election. They won 11.
