Battle lines in Ukraine are the most unstable since the start of Vladimir Putin’s war, according to British intelligence chiefs.
Russia’s bigger army is slowly pushing Ukraine’s outnumbered forces backwards in the Donetsk province of the eastern Donbas region.
Putin is believed to be seeking to grab as much territory in Ukraine before Donald Trump becomes US president in January, having claimed he could end the war in a day, which would almost certainly mean Kyiv having to give up land occupied by Russian troops.
Russian forces recently advanced near Kupyansk, Chasiv Yar, Toretsk, Kurakhove and Vuhledar in eastern Ukraine and in the Kursk region of their country, while Ukrainian forces recently regained lost positions near Pokrovsk, according to the Institute for The Study of War.
Putin’s military has stepped up drone and missile attacks, killing and injuring civilians including children, as well as Ukrainian soldiers.
With the war having passed a grim 1,000-day milestone on Tuesday, Defence Secretary John Healey told the Defence Committee: “This is a serious moment that I come before the committee.
“Defence intelligence will reveal today that the front line is now less stable than at any time since the early days of the full scale Russian invasion in 2022.”
His comments suggest that Putin’s forces may be on the brink of gaining ground more rapidly.
Mr Healey added: “We have seen in recent weeks a very clear escalation from Putin and his forces. They have stepped up attacks on the energy system in Ukraine ahead of winter, they have stepped up attacks on civilian centres killing children, they have deployed at least 10,000 North Korean troops to the battle front line.
“And there are unconfirmed but media reports today of Russia firing a new ballistic missile into Ukraine which we know they have been preparing for months.”
His comments referred to Ukraine’s air force claiming Russia fired an intercontinental ballistic missile at the city of Dnipro, though, western officials have cast doubt on this, suggesting it was a lower range ballistic missile.
In its latest intelligence briefing, the Ministry of Defence said: “Before the invasion of Ukraine, Russia had attempted to build a modern, professional force capable of carrying out complex operations. After 1,000 days of the conflict Russia’s land forces are radically different to the force that originally invaded Ukraine.
“Russia’s personnel losses of over 700,000 killed and wounded have drastically undermined Russia’s force quality. Most personnel currently serving in the Russian military have received minimal training, and Russian commanders use basic tactics to make advances, despite the associated high casualty rates.
“Russia has lost at least 3,500 main battle tanks and 7,500 armoured vehicles.”
The update added: “Despite the costs imposed on its land forces, Russian territorial advances in Ukraine have accelerated through 2024.
“This has been underpinned by the Russian leadership’s tolerance for casualties, and Russia’s land forces’ quantitative overmatch relative to the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
“The frontline is now less stable than at any point since the opening stages of the conflict.”
Britain, the US, Ukraine and its other allies are fighting an information war against Russia so their briefings need to be treated with caution but are far more believable than the propaganda from the Kremlin.
Ukraine was reported to have fired around a dozen British-supplied Storm Shadow missiles into Russia to help Kyiv forces who seized a part of the Kursk region in a surprise attack in the summer, having launched US-supplied ATACMS missiles into Russia for the first time earlier in the week.
The UK Government has not confirmed whether Storm Shadows have been fired into Russia.
But Sir Keir Starmer told Parliament: “We will stand up for what we know is right, for Ukraine’s security and for our own security and we will back Ukraine with what is needed for as long as is needed.”
