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Over the weeks leading up to the season Mountain West Wire will be looking at the best players at different aspects of the game. As basketball has become more and more positionless it’s more about being the best at specific skills than it is being the best at a certain position.
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One of the best attributes any player can have is to make their teammates better. Usually that is accomplished through passing the ball. Getting a teammate the ball in the right spot, at the right time, helps the teammate be more efficient. It’s easier to hit a three point shot off the catch than it is to hit one off the dribble. It’s easier for a big man to score when rolling to the basket and receiving a pocket pass than it is for a big man to score when posting up. Great passers also have cumulative teamwide effects of helping all players feel involved in the offense, making them try harder both offensively as well as defensively. Big men are more likely to run to rim run in transition if they believe they’ll get rewarded for their efforts by getting the ball. Cutters are more likely to cut hard off the ball if they believe that there’s a chance they’ll get the ball for an easy layup or open jump shot. And when players are engaged offensively, it often results in better defensive engagement as well. So a great passer can really elevate the ceiling of a team to be higher than the sum of its parts.
One lesser known metric that will be used to evaluate the players is called Box Creation. It takes box score stats and estimates the number of shots a player creates for their teammates on a per 100 possession basis. So a score of seven means that for every 100 possessions a player played, they created seven shots for their teammates. It is similar to potential assists, although it includes more factors, such as the gravity a player generates to help them create for others.
With the importance of good passers established, here are the best passers in the Mountain West this season.
Jordan Nesbitt, Wyoming – Jordan Nesbitt is a type of player that is becoming more rare in basketball. Nesbitt is a great passer despite his relative inability to score efficiently. Most players have a certain bar of scoring that they can use to help draw defensive attention and open up passing lanes. Nesbitt doesn’t have that. Given the lack of scoring acumen, Nesbitt’s passing becomes more impressive, and slightly nudges him ahead of a few other candidates for this list. It helps that he is 6’6” tall and can see over most defenders placed in front of him. His assist rate of 28.7 finished in the top-100 against D1 competition. He averaged 4.3 assists per game on an assist to turnover ratio of 1.7:1. How new coach Sundance Wicks deploys Nesbitt will be a storyline early on for Wyoming fans.
Alvaro Cardenas, Boise State – Cardenas 5.5 assists per game was the 4th best mark in the conference last season. His 2.7:1 assist to turnover ratio made it even better. His Box Creation score of 7.72 was the fifth best in the conference last season, and three of the four players above him have left the conference. Playing for Boise State may result in his counting stats going down as he won’t be necessary for him to generate as much offense, but his passing efficiency should go up as he plays with higher level teammates.
Donovan Dent, New Mexico – Donovan Dent is probably the best point guard in the conference. His combination of skills make him an elite player, but his passing is next level. Dent averaged 5.4 assists per game last season, and had a season high of 14 assists against Utah State. Add to that a 2.4:1 assist to turnover ratio, and an assist rate that ranked 51st nationally, and it’s hard to argue that Dent isn’t an elite passer. Dent also finished second in the conference in Box Creation with a score of 8.75. Given the potential increase in shooting threats on the Lobos roster, it’s not out of the realm of possibility for Dent to average 6+ assists per game next season.
Dedan Thomas, UNLV – As far as raising the level of his teammates, Thomas may be the best of the bunch. He is arguably the best tough shot maker in the conference. In the true fashion of a modern day point guard, he uses that scoring ability to accentuate his passing. He’s so good with it that coach Kruger is building the entire UNLV offense around Thomas’ skill set. As a freshman Thomas averaged over 5 assists per game, and had an assist to turnover ratio of 2.3:1. His Box Creation score of 7.58 wasn’t as elite as players like Isaiah Stevens or Donovan Dent last season, but it was still 6th best in the conference as a freshman. His ability should inly improve as his game continues to develop.
Drake Allen, Utah State – Drake Allen has impressive passing numbers. He averaged 4.3 assists per game, his assist rate was the 40th best assist rate in the nation, and he had a better than 2:1 assist to turnover ratio. What is even more impressive is that he accomplished those feats playing for a Utah Valley team that runs a terrible offensive system. He got no help from the system, and little help from his teammates. The team had no shooters, and few threats around the rim. Posting those numbers, given the situation he was in, takes a borderline herculean effort. This season Allen should be even better having players like Ian Martinez and Aubin Gateretse around.
