Today we are following up on Thursday’s article comparing current player props with current fantasy football ADPs. In that one, we looked at the NFC; now we turn our attention to the AFC.
In reviewing player props, we are hoping to find some value that may have been overlooked in fantasy drafts.
Here are three interesting things to consider for your fantasy draft if you believe Vegas has an inside track.
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- Nick Chubb’s rushing yards prop is set all the way up at 1225.5 after he put together a quiet 1,525 rushing yard season in 2022. That’s the highest rushing prop in Vegas, with Derrick Henry being the next up at 1150.5. Meanwhile, rookie Bijan Robinson’s prop is set at 1100.5, yet he’s going before Chubb, a proven NFL runner. Chubb’s 8.5 rushing TD line is shared with Robinson, Austin Ekeler and Tony Pollard and that’s second only to Henry’s 9.5. Ekeler’s rushing yards are set at 775.5 and he also is taken ahead of Chubb. Yes, Ekeler can catch the ball, but new offensive coordinator Kellen Moore may change things up in Los Angeles. Maybe Vegas is off on this one, but if you like Chubb as your RB1 -- especially in standard leagues -- don’t be afraid to ignore the ADP and take him as your top runner. And don’t forget -- Kareem Hunt is out of town now, too.
- Aaron Rodgers could be a tremendous value coming off the board as the QB16. Las Vegas has his passing yards prop set at 3950.5. That’s the sixth-highest among QBs and his 28.5 touchdown prop is tied with Kirk Cousins for the fourth-most. In six-point passing TD leagues, A Rod is a great QB2 with QB1 upside. Also, Garrett Wilson’s receiving yards prop is set at 1150.5 and his touchdowns are set at 8.5, so don’t be afraid to draft him early in the second round as a WR1. However, even if Wilson is the big dog, there should be more goodness to go around. Allen Lazard and Mecole Hardman could be worth a shot in later rounds, too.
- Amari Cooper is presenting excellent value at his current ADP. Cooper’s receiving prop is 950.5 and his TD prop is set at 6.5; however he’s still going after Keenan Allen and Calvin Ridley -- both of whom have lower receiving and TD lines.
