Imagine the team picture for the Baseball Hall of Fame Class of 2025 as voted by the baseball writers. It is everything we love about the democracy of this great game of baseball.
There is Ichiro Suzuki, the first Asian player ever elected, who when he signed with the Orix Blue Wave was 5'9" and 120 pounds and was so unorthodox his manager wasn’t sure if he would ever hit.
There is CC Sabathia, who at his playing size of 6'6" and 300 pounds becomes the biggest Hall of Famer ever—by a lot. He displaces 250-pound Jim Thome. (And way heavier than the biggest enshrined pitchers, Roy Halladay and Randy Johnson at 225 pounds).
There is Billy Wagner, a righthander who became lefthanded after breaking his arm as a child and at 5'10" is the shortest pitcher to debut since 1951 and make the Hall. Wagner and Whitey Ford are the only Hall of Fame pitchers that short to debut in the past 90 years.
It’s a reminder that anybody can play baseball, even at a Hall of Fame level. It also reminds us that the paths to Cooperstown are many—and they are increasingly well-traveled. The flow of electees to the Hall, even recognizing how PED users aren’t getting in, continues to increase. In the past 12 elections, the writers have elected 30 players, an average of 2.5 per year. In my first 12 elections, dating to the early 1990s, the writers elected 18, or 1.5 per year. That’s a 67% increase, which is perfectly suitable because of expansion and a better understanding of analytics.
I don’t see a need to vote for the maximum of 10 candidates each year. I vote only for players I am convinced are Hall of Famers. This year my ballot included four names.
In general, the harder you must work at crunching numbers to make someone sound like a Hall of Famer, the weaker is the case. The more simply you can define greatness the easier it is to vote for such players. In the spirit of simplicity, here is my ballot and why I voted for each of my four selections:
1. Carlos Beltrán: He has nearly identical numbers as Hall of Famer Andre Dawson … plus a ridiculously great .307/.412/.609 slash line in the postseason … plus the greatest success rate of anybody who stole 300 bases (86.4%).
2. CC Sabathia: He is one of three lefthanders in history with 250 wins and 3,000 strikeouts. The others are Steve Carlton and Randy Johnson.
3. Ichiro Suzuki: He is one of only five players with 3,000 hits, a .300 average and 500 stolen bases. The others are Ty Cobb, Eddie Collins, Paul Molitor and Honus Wagner.
4. Billy Wagner: The toughest pitcher to hit among all pitchers with 900 innings (.187 BAA), who did it by pitching virtually his entire career in high-leverage situations (422 saves, sixth highest average leverage index).
What else did we learn from the ballot?
Beltrán, who missed by 19 votes, and Andruw Jones have a good path toward election. With Sabathia, Suzuki and Wagner off the ballot and Ryan Braun and Cole Hamels being the best first-year candidates next year, the two center fielders can pick up more votes. Jones has two more years left on the writers’ ballot. Jones hit .214 from age 30 and finished with fewer hits and a lower OPS+ than Dale Murphy and Jim Edmonds.
Wagner came from as low as 10.2% support in his second year to election, tying Scott Rolen for the greatest leap from lack of support to Cooperstown. Next biggest leap: Todd Helton, up from 16.5%—which means the three greatest leaps to election have all been completed in the past three ballots. Why is this happening? The flow of information is faster and groupthink, thanks to ballot tracking, has grown.
PED users still are not getting in. There is a hard ceiling for such candidates, though the election of Sabathia helped Andy Pettitte, a pitcher with similar numbers who jumped 14%, the most among returnees. Manny Ramirez, who has never cracked 40%, has one more year on the ballot. Alex Rodriguez also has not topped 40% in his four turns on the ballot.
Chase Utley has more reason to be encouraged than Jimmy Rollins. Among the Philadelphia Phillies’ middle infielders, Utley improved by 11% to 40% and Rollins inched up by 3% to 18%. With many votes available on the ballot the next two years, Utley looks best positioned to break out of the pack.
This article was originally published on www.si.com as Baseball Hall of Fame's 2025 Class Shows Greatness Comes in All Shapes and Sizes.
