Baseball may no longer be America’s most prominent sport, but there is one aspect of it that carries more weight in the mind of the average fan compared to its likenesses—the Baseball Hall of Fame. The annual discourse surrounding which players will be enshrined takes up more space in the public consciousness than, say, which NFL players will be inducted into the Pro Football Hall of Fame despite football’s comfortable spot at the top of the U.S. sport hierarchy.
This year’s HOF ballot, especially, contains no shortage of compelling story lines for fans to debate. Accordingly, it seems only right for our staff to discuss the topics at hand. Tomorrow, Tom Verducci will disclose his official ballot and cover the narratives that emerge from Tuesday’s voting results reveal. But in the meantime, he and three non-BBWAA Sports Illustrated staffers will tide you over with a roundtable covering some of the relevant talking points.
1. Which of the 10 first-time candidates currently polling below 5% on Ryan Thibodeaux’s 2025 Hall of Fame ballot tracker deserves a closer look?
Tom Verducci: Ian Kinsler is one of only four second basemen to hit 250 homers and steal 200 bases. The others are all in the Hall: Craig Biggio, Ryne Sandberg and Joe Morgan. He may not be as famous as Dustin Pedroia, but he has a very good argument.
Ryan Phillips: I don't think Troy Tulowitzki is a Hall of Famer but he's polling at 0% despite having a great career. His JAWS of 42.4 ranks 28th all-time among shortstops and bests several players already in the Hall of Fame. He had six seasons in which he topped 5.0 WAR and four above 6.2. Had his career not been cut short by injuries—his last full season came when he was 32—he may well have made it.
Nick Selbe: Ian Kinsler lacks the type of awards haul necessary for serious contention, but his résumé deserves more than one year on the ballot. He finished his career one hit shy of 2,000, and had 257 homers and 243 stolen bases. By JAWS, he ranks 21st among second baseman—one spot ahead of Jeff Kent, who got 10 years on the ballot and peaked at 46.5% of the vote in 2023.
Will Laws: I'm not sure Russell Martin and Brian McCann are Hall of Famers. But I do know they're undervalued by JAWS, a statistic frequently used to measure Cooperstown worthiness, in which Martin and McCann rank 28th and 35th, respectively, all-time among catchers. (There are 17 catchers in the Hall.) That's because they're the two best framers in the history of FanGraphs' framing statistic, which measures how well catchers can present pitches to "steal" strikes outside of the zone. That's right, they were even better than Yadier Molina, who was hailed for his defensive prowess and will likely be enshrined one day. And both were better hitters than Molina. McCann has an especially underrated case as a seven-time All-Star and six-time Silver Slugger winner with 282 career home runs (eighth among catchers) and 1,018 RBIs (15th).
2. Which player returning to the ballot would you like to stump for?
TV: Carlos Beltrán had almost the exact same career as Andre Dawson—with a huge postseason résumé added. Yes, he was an integral part of the Astros’ sign-stealing scam.
RP: I don't know how Andruw Jones isn't in. He ranks 11th all-time for center fielders in JAWS (54.6) and is universally hailed as one of the best defensive outfielders of all time. He has the highest dWAR (24.4) for a center fielder in MLB history and won 10 Gold Gloves. Anyone who watched him play the position fully understands why he should be in the Hall of Fame. There was a unique beauty to the ease and grace with which he ran down balls in the outfield, making it look effortless. His offensive numbers aren't bad either. He hit 434 home runs, racked up 1,289 RBIs and had 1,933 hits.
NS: Bobby Abreu was criminally underrated throughout his career, so it's fitting that his Hall of Fame candidacy is following suit. Currently tracking around 25% of support in his sixth year on the ballot, Abreu's skill set was ahead of its time. JAWS ranks him 22nd among right fielders, sandwiched between a pair of Hall of Famers in Dave Winfield and Vladimir Guerrero. Each had more hits and homers than Abreu, but the latter's .395 career on-base percentage is miles ahead, as are his 400 stolen bases. Is he a shoo-in? No, but his case deserves to be at least borderline and it's currently trending toward "no real shot at enshrinement."
WL: I already made my case for Andruw Jones, so I'll throw support behind Chase Utley, who's polling at just over 50% in his second year on the ballot. He's trending toward eventual election, but I think the six-time All-Star should've been a first-ballot enshrinee. Utley was the best second baseman in the league for a decade—his 57.7 fWAR from 2005–14 well outpaced his closest peer, Robinson Canó (41.3). He also ranks 12th all-time in JAWS at a position with 20 Hall of Famers.
3. This is Billy Wagner's 10th and final year on the ballot after missing election by five votes (73.8%) in 2024. Would he earn your vote?
TV: Yes. He dominated hitters and closed games like very few in MLB history.
RP: Wagner deserves to be in the Hall of Fame and it has taken far too long for him to be inducted. He racked up 422 saves in 16 seasons with a 2.31 ERA, 1.00 WHIP and 1,196 strikeouts in 903 innings. The flamethrowing lefty was one of the most dominant closers of all time by the eye test and the numbers. His reliever JAWS score of 24.9 has him as the sixth-best closer of all time with only Hall of Famers above him: Mariano Rivera (48.8), Dennis Eckersley (39.6), Hoyt Wilhelm (34.3), Goose Gossage (29.5) and Trevor Hoffman (27.1). Meanwhile, he far outpaces enshrinees Lee Smith (21.0) and Rollie Fingers (19.0). Baseball has specialized more and more over the years and those specialists deserve recognition. Wagner is more than worthy.
NS: Yes. The bar for relief pitchers making it to Cooperstown is justifiably high, but Wagner clears it in my opinion. Closers need sustained peaks and long stretches of dominance, and Wagner had both. He had 12 seasons with a sub-3.00 ERA and at least 45 games, and didn't merely compile saves for consistently great clubs (his teams only made the playoffs six times in 16 seasons).
WL: Definitely. Tom Verducci did a better job of outlining his case here than I could, but I'll share a couple of especially impressive statistics from that piece: In the Live Ball Era (since 1920), Wagner ranks first among all pitchers with at least 900 innings in batting average against (.187) and strikeout rate (33.2%). He is essentially the best pitcher at inducing whiffs and the hardest pitcher to get a base hit off of in the last 100 years. That means a lot in my book.
4. Should Carlos Beltrán and McCann be penalized for their participation in the Astros' sign-stealing scandal?
TV: Yes, they should be penalized. McCann doesn’t have Hall of Fame numbers, so it’s a moot point. With Beltrán, the penalty is waiting. He would have been a first- or second-ballot electee without it.
RP: I would usually lean hard toward penalizing anyone involved in the Astros cheating scandal, but I tend to believe there are some mitigating factors here. First, unlike the rampant use of steroids that saw significant jumps in performance from users, there is no way to quantify just how much Houston hitters benefited from the sign stealing. It's debatable whether it should be a black mark on the careers of the entire roster. Second, while that title is certainly tainted, Beltrán and McCann both had long, successful careers without a hint of scandal before that. Finally, there have been rumors for years that many MLB teams were stealing signs during that era—the Astros were just the team that got caught, which tends to water down the scandal a bit.
NS: My personal feeling is that the Hall should reflect the game through history, with each era best represented by the most significant and outstanding figures of the time. If either Beltrán or McCann get elected at some point, there will be much attention drawn to their roles in the Astros' cheating scandal. Enshrinement into Cooperstown doesn't wash that away. Much like performance-enhancing drugs, their transgressions were met with consequences, which include tarnished reputations in some voters' eyes. Personally, I wouldn't factor their roles into whether or not I would vote for them.
WL: Some voters seemed to penalize Beltrán last year in his debut as a nominee to prevent him the honor of being a first-ballot Hall of Famer and are voting for him this year, which is sort of silly, though I understand the thought process. It'd be a shame if that strategy is utilized for McCann, who could use every vote he can get to stay on the ballot, especially since his role in the scandal wasn't as prominent as Beltrán's. In general, I adhere to the thought that since MLB didn't punish any Astros for their participation, it shouldn't fall on the writers to do so.
5. Give us your hypothetical ballot.
RP: I made five selections and I believe four are locks to get in. Ichiro Suzuki should be unanimous, CC Sabathia is an easy choice, Billy Wagner is long overdue and if Carlos Beltrán doesn't get in this year, he will eventually. Andruw Jones would be my final pick.
NS: Bobby Abreu, Carlos Beltrán, Andruw Jones, Alex Rodriguez, Manny Ramirez, Chase Utley, CC Sabathia, Ichiro Suzuki, Billy Wagner.
This article was originally published on www.si.com as Baseball Hall of Fame Roundtable: Hypothetical Ballots, Underrated Candidates.
