MIAMI — ESPN’s Todd McShay recently tweeted the reality that any Dolphins fan paying attention already knew:
“I think Tua is on a one-year trial to prove he’s the Dolphins’ guy for the future. If not, Miami is loaded with draft ammunition to move up for Alabama’s Bryce Young or Ohio State’s CJ Stroud in 2023.”
After all, the Dolphins have their own first-round pick and San Francisco’s first-rounder in next year’s draft. They also have their own second-round pick and two third-rounders (their own and New England’s from the DeVante Parker trade).
But here’s the problem with that:
The teams who all likely need long-term quarterbacks are expected to be the worst teams in the league this season: Atlanta, Detroit and Houston.
Carolina, the Giants, Washington and Seattle — who all need long-term answers at quarterback — also could have top-10 picks.
That’s seven teams — who are all worse than the Dolphins on paper — who will probably need new quarterbacks, unless Davis Mills (Houston) and Daniel Jones (Giants) and Drew Lock (Seattle) take major leaps and Carson Wentz (Washington) becomes the Eagles’ Super Bowl version.
Pittsburgh could be in the market for a quarterback again if rookie Kenny Pickett disappoints.
So none of these teams are likely going to be inclined to skip the chance to draft an elite quarterback in exchange for the Dolphins’ two first-round picks in 2023 and one first-rounder in 2024.
Even if Miami threw in a second-rounder and one or both of its 2023 third-rounders, why would any team desperately needing a quarterback bypass the chance to draft one?
What’s more, the Eagles also have two first-round picks in 2023 (their own and the Saints’). So if they want to move on from Jalen Hurts, they’ll also be competing with the Dolphins and others to move up in the draft.
And keep in mind that the QB-hungry Lions, Texans and Seahawks also have two first-rounders in 2023. Detroit has its own and the Rams’. The Texans have their own and Cleveland’s. The Seahawks have their own and Denver’s.
All three of these teams — among others — will be in far better position to get the draft’s top quarterbacks than Miami would be next April, unless either the Dolphins or 49ers have very bad records, which obviously isn’t expected.
The best thing that could happen for the Dolphins, naturally, is Tagovailoa establishing himself as the long-term solution.
But if not? The Dolphins must hope that there are five or six quarterbacks who emerge as A) high-end prospects and B) more appealing options than Tagovailoa, if the Dolphins are looking to upgrade at the position next spring.
Only then will the supply begin to meet the demand.
That means South Carolina’s Spencer Rattler, UM’s Tyler Van Dyke, UF’s Anthony Richardson, Boston College’s Phil Jurkovec, Kentucky’s Wil Levis and Fresno State’s Jake Haener need to evolve into legitimate first-round picks, players worth trading up for in what will likely be a QB-needy market.
So much can change — and usually does — in one college football season; after all, ESPN’s Mel Kiper considered Brad Kaaya a top-five pick before his final season at UM, and he ended up going in the sixth round to the Lions after a disappointing final season for the Hurricanes.
With that caveat, it’s notable that McShay has Stroud first, Young second, Florida’s Richardson sixth, Kentucky’s Levis eighth and Van Dyke ninth, with no other QBs in his initial 2023 first-round mock.
McShay said the Gators’ Richardson “is a huge projection — the 6-foot-4, 236-pound passer played in just eight games and started once last year — and has some turnover issues. But he’s extremely talented and poised for a breakout season in his first as a full-time starter.”
McShay said Levis “needs to find more consistency, but he has a live arm and a big 6-foot-3, 232-pound frame. He has thrived in the quick game at Kentucky, with a lot of run-pass options and screen-type stuff.”
And McShay said UM’s Van Dyke “has the talent of a future franchise passer. The third-year sophomore just needs to take the next step this year.”
Profootballnetwork’s Cam Mellor has six quarterbacks (but not Van Dyke) in his top 16 of his early 2023 mock.
He projects Stroud first and Young second, Rattler (the former Oklahoma standout) third, Haener seventh, Jurkovec eighth and Levis 12th (to the Dolphins).
Mellor said Haener “throws well from all platforms and has uncanny arm strength. He can drive throws with a flick of the wrist in the vein of Patrick Mahomes or Josh Allen.”
Mellor said “Jurkovec’s arm is special, as evidenced by his breaking Matt Ryan’s record at BC for most 300-yard passing games.”
So if Tagovailoa isn’t really good this season, the Dolphins need most or all of these QBs (beyond Stroud and Young) to cement themselves as top prospects. And it wouldn’t hurt if the 49ers struggle while potentially breaking in Trey Lance, which would only increase the value of that San Francisco first-rounder owned by Miami.
Bottom line: The thinking that Miami has enough draft ammunition to solve quarterback next April — if it needs to be solved — is wonderful in theory. In actuality, it might be far more difficult to execute.
