MIAMI — Even before hiring Mike McDaniel, the Dolphins told people they’re committed to quarterback Tua Tagovailoa for the 2022 season. McDaniel is all in, too, telling ESPN that “what I’ve seen is a skill set that’s very successful in this offense. You’re seeing a very accurate passer that receivers love to catch footballs from — tight spirals and accurate throws, which are huge for run after the catch. I also see great athleticism, some natural pocket movement and a tough competitor that’s willing to stand in there when necessary.”
So this question thus becomes one of the most important to be answered next fall:
Will Tagovailoa evolve from a pretty good starter to very good starter if given a better supporting cast and a more skilled offensive coaching staff?
Here’s the good news: There’s ample evidence of quarterbacks making a significant jump in their third year as NFL starters, or even well beyond that.
There are also several examples of quarterbacks regressing or not improving at all in Year 3, and yet nevertheless having good careers.
We studied 22 pretty good-to-very good quarterbacks from this century (18 still active), their third-year-as-a-starter performance compared to their first two and whether that third-year performance was ultimately reflective of their career work.
Of those 22, Tagovailoa outperformed some of them in his first two years and wasn’t as good as others.
Here’s what we found, keeping in mind that we evaluated the players’ third year in which they started half or more of their team’s games (not necessarily their third year in the league):
— Ten of the 22 improved significantly from their second to third season as starters: Josh Allen, Drew Brees, Matt Ryan, Philip Rivers, Andrew Luck, Baker Mayfield, Ryan Tannehill, Deshaun Watson, Dak Prescott and Kyler Murray.
An 11th, Derek Carr, made a modest improvement in Year 3. A 12th, Patrick Mahomes, was already very good and got a little better.
Allen, who had a 67.9 passer rating as a rookie, jumped from an 85.3 rating (20 TDs, 9 INTs) in Year 2 as a starter to 107.2 (37,10) in Year 3.
Brees rose from 76.9 and 67.5 ratings in his first two seasons as a starter to a 104.8 rating (27 TDs, 7 INTs) in Year 3.
Rivers jumped from 92.0 and 82.4 ratings in his first two years as a starter to 105.5 (34, 11) in Year 3.
Luck improved from 76.5 and 87.0 ratings in his first two seasons to 96.5 (40 TDs, 16 INTs) in Year 3.
Ryan went from 87.7 as a rookie down to 80.9 in Year 2 to 91.0 (28, 9) in Year 3.
Mayfield, who had a 93.7 passer rating as a rookie starter, dropped to a 78.8 passer rating (22 TDs, 21 picks) in Year 2 as a starter but rose to 95.9 in Year 3 (26, 8) before sliding to 83.1 this season.
Tannehill jumped from 76.1 as a Dolphins rookie starter (12 TDs, 13 INTs) to 81.7 (24, 17) in Year 2 to 92.8 (27, 12) in Year 3 with the Dolphins.
Watson rose from a 98 rating in year two (26, 12) to 112.4 (33, 7) in Year 3.
Prescott, who had a 104.9 passer rating as a rookie starter (23, 4), fell to 86.6 (22, 13) in Year 2 and rose to 96.9 (22, 8) in Year 3.
Murray improved from 87.4 as a rookie to 94.3 in his second season to 100.6 in Year 3. His passer ratings in his first two years were only modestly better than Tagovailoa’s. So it’s encouraging that Murray took another jump this season.
— Of those 10 who made big jumps in their third season as a starter, the play of Brees, Rivers, Luck and Ryan were particularly reflective of how their careers went from that point on.
Ryan’s 94.2 career rating is similar to his third-year passer rating.
It looks like Allen and Prescott and Watson are on career trajectories similar to what they did in Year 3.
But Mayfield regressed this season, and Tannehill leveled off until he was traded to Tennessee, where a superior running game and offensive line helped him achieve the best two seasons of his career.
So Brees, Rivers, Luck and Ryan — who were statistically worse or similar to Tagovailoa in their first two seasons — offer the strongest historical data to suggest that Tagovailoa could still take another significant jump.
It’s also reasonable to point out that Rivers, Luck and Ryan are bigger than Tagovailoa, and Brees is one of the best quarterbacks in NFL history, though ESPN’s Dan Orlovsky has said he sees Brees in Tagovailoa.
But Mayfield offers a more cautionary tale of what not to read into a third-year jump.
— Four of these 22 quarterbacks had a significant statistical regression in Year 3. But that didn’t necessarily prove to be a bad harbinger for them.
Lamar Jackson went from a 113.3 rating in his first year as a starter to 99.3 in Year 2 to 87 in his just-completed Year 3.
Matt Stafford dropped from 97.2 in his second year as a starter to 79.8 in his third, but has rebounded to have a good career and won his first Super Bowl on Sunday for the Rams.
Ben Roethlisberger, who retired this offseason, went from a 98.1 and 98.6 passer rating in his first two seasons to 75.4 (18 TDs, 23 INTs) in Year 3, but then rebounded to 104.1 in Year 4 and has gone on to have a Hall of Fame career. So that third year was an anomaly.
Carson Palmer went from 101.1 in Year 2 to 93.9 in Year 3 (still good) and finished his career with an 87.9 rating.
So while Jackson’s career must still play out, it’s clear that the drops by Stafford and Roethlisberger in Year 3 — and Palmer’s, to a lesser extent — proved to be blips, not any cause for long-term concern.
— Some quarterbacks take longer than three years, though I doubt Tagovailoa gets a fourth year as a starter if he doesn’t play well next season.
After appearing in only one game as a rookie, Tom Brady was pretty good his first six seasons as a starter (ratings of 86.5, 85.7, 85.9, 92.6, 92.3, 87.9) before blossoming in Year 7 (2006), when he produced a 117.2 passer rating, with 50 touchdowns and eight interceptions.
Nobody is comparing Tagovailoa to Brady, but it does take time for some.
Eli Manning, who started seven games in his first season, posted mediocre passer ratings in his first four seasons as a full-time starter (75.9, 77, 73.9, 86.4) but rose to 93.1 (27 TDS, 14 INTs) in Year 5 as a starter.
— The takeaways here: More than half of the 22 quarterbacks in our study improved in Year 3, most significantly so. So there’s evidence to suggest Tagovailoa can take another jump next season, especially if his offensive line and running game and receiver group are augmented.
But for some — such as Brady and Eli Manning — it takes even longer to become what they ultimately became.
Meanwhile, Pro Football Focus conducted its own study, attempting to project the futures of the 2020 draft class of quarterbacks. PFF used its own per play grades and efficiency numbers as its data.
Its outlook for Tagovailoa wasn’t encouraging.
PFF said: “The successful quarterbacks surrounding Tagovailoa are harder to find, with only the uber-talented Josh Allen and Matt Stafford registering a lower grade forecast through two seasons.
Tagovailoa is more solidly in the middle of unsuccessful quarterbacks, surrounded by Mark Sanchez, Colt McCoy, Tyler Thigpen and Trent Edwards.”
But Sanchez had a 69 passer rating through two years, McCoy 74, Thigpen 75 and Edwards 79. Tagovailoa has an 88.8 passer rating through two seasons (27 TDs, 15 INTs) and is much better than those four were.
We didn’t compare Tagovailoa’s career to 21st century busts or disappointments because Tagovailoa has been better — in many cases, much better — than that pool of players.
But PFF factors in turnover-worthy plays (including dropped interceptions), which led to their more pessimistic outlook.
