DETROIT — Republican state Sen. Tom Barrett had an early lead over Democratic U.S. Rep. Elissa Slotkin in their tossup race for Congress in mid-Michigan, where it's possible the results won't be known until Wednesday.
Barrett of Charlotte had 55% of the vote, and Slotkin of Lansing had 43% with about 41% of the vote counted Tuesday night, according to unofficial returns. Libertarian candidate Leah Dailey of South Lyon had 2% of the vote.
Those totals did not yet include full results for Ingham County, a Democratic stronghold. Democratic activists said they were encouraged by the long line of Michigan State University students still waiting to vote late Tuesday in East Lansing.
Slotkin addressed supporters just after 10 p.m. at her campaign election night party in East Lansing.
"We are still in a dead heat and, while we are overperforming … in every single precinct that has come in so far, in the state of Michigan, as we know very well, it is the voters who decide elections, not candidates," Slotkin said. "My guess is in the morning, we will know for sure, so get your seats buckled up."
Barrett said he carried out his election eve tradition of having dinner at the Cracker Barrel in Delta Township, followed by visiting phone banks Tuesday. He highlighted Livingston County as performing particularly well as things stood at 11 p.m.
"We're cautiously optimistic but still waiting for the results to come in," he said. "But some of the preliminary numbers look promising."
The pair are running in the new 7th District that covers greater Lansing area, Livingston County and corners of Oakland and Genesee counties. The contest has become one of the top two most expensive races nationally, reaching more than $37 million in spending by the candidates and outside groups, according to tracking by the nonpartisan site OpenSecrets.
Republicans are trying to wipe out Slotkin, who they think is vulnerable amid national headwinds as President Joe Biden remains unpopular on the economy. They recruited Barrett, a state lawmaker and Army veteran who served in Iraq, who has hammered the two-term Democrat on her record of voting with Democrats and blaming her and Biden for record-high levels of inflation, rising crime and the migrant crisis at the Southern border.
"We can't allow this to keep going," Barrett told supporters at a Friday rally with former Vice President Mike Pence. "And my opponent has voted in direct lockstep with Joe Biden for every one of his failed policies, and that stops on Tuesday with me."
Slotkin, a former Central Intelligence Agency analyst and top Pentagon official, has tried to hang on by emphasizing her independent brand, bipartisan record and her work on fights for Michigan jobs and manufacturing, abortion rights and lower drug prices. She's described Barrett as an anti-choice ideologue who answers to corporate donors and "hides" his right-of-center positions in a swing district to sound more moderate than he is.
"This race will give me a good sense and maybe others a good sense of where our country wants to go. What kind of country do we want to be in the face of polarization and extremism," Slotkin said in her Tuesday night remarks.
"Or do we want to reject that and say no: We want pragmatic, reasonable, decent people who debate the role of government in our lives, but do not see each other as enemies. That is what I want."
Slotkin is currently one of five House Democrats representing a Donald Trump-won district across the country after flipping a GOP-held district in 2018. She held a significant financial advantage throughout the cycle, spending over $8 million through Oct. 19 on her bid for a third term to Barrett's $2.4 million. Outside allies have spent at least $25 million to influence the race — more than any other U.S. House race in the general election.
"If she wins, it will come down to her crafting this independent image and then to money advantage," said Adrian Hemond, a Democrat and CEO of the Lansing-based consulting firm Grassroots Midwest. "If Barrett's able to win, you put that down to relative candidate quality and to it being a midterm election and the president's party taking it on the chin."
Hemond suggested the race could come down to being decided by 1,000 votes or fewer, in part because of how closely drawn the district was during last year's redistricting process.
“She’s done a really good job representing us. As much as I lean very heavily in one direction, she does a really good job of keeping her constituents in mind and really trying to make positive decisions regardless of party,” said Amanda Voorheis, 35, of Lansing, who brought her 6-year-old daughter with her to vote.
“I’m getting a little exhausted with every single election feeling like this is sooo important. I know we’re in a big time of change, but I’m glad to raise people who are really informed, as well.”
In Livingston County's Genoa Township, 73-year-old Marge Sallows cast her vote for Barrett, citing her displeasure with Biden. "She's voted strictly for Biden," Sallows said. "And I don't like Biden."
Based on the 2020 election results, Biden would have won the new 7th District by less than a percentage point. Former President Donald Trump would have won it by one point in 2016.
Slotkin has represented roughly two-thirds of the population of the new district, and Barrett has represented about a third.
Analysts and party insiders have said the sky-high spending is the result of a closely drawn battleground district straddling three media markets, with two quality candidates following a redistricting year when incumbency has less effect.
(Staff Writers Chad Livengood and Craig Mauger contributed.)
