Barchart’s machine learning forecast models are predicting record corn yield, 189 bushels/acre, and record soybean yield, 54 bushels/acre. Ample rainfall, good soil moisture, and above average Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) indicate above trend yield. It is still early and there is a lot of important weather ahead that can change the forecast, making it important to follow the daily model updates.
Corn and soybean futures prices have been under pressure for over a month, pushed lower by the positive outlook on US crop conditions. Futures prices are driven by expectations of national yield, making it important to have an objective, comprehensive model-based approach that takes both satellite and ground-based weather and geospatial inputs.
Another key benefit of Barchart’s models are the accurate near-real time predictions at the county-level across all major producing states. While overall conditions are positive, severe weather has affected a number of different pockets of the midwest. Hail damage was widely reported across Nebraska, which can have severe crop impact in local areas. Flooding in northern Iowa and southern Minnesota drowned out crops. High winds have also caused flattened stalks or green snap in various parts of the corn belt. These impacts are reflected in satellite-based measurements like NDVI that are a key input into Barcharts yield forecasts. In Northern Iowa corn-weighted NDVI went from above average to 20-year lows as of Aug. 2.
Yield forecasts in the weather-affected areas have declined in recent weeks. This highlights the value of a county-level, daily updating forecast model where users can focus on the areas around their key business operations and make decisions based on anticipated changes in supply.
Source: Barchart cmdtyView
Barchart recently announced a significant enhancement to its yield forecast model for US corn and soybeans through the integration of data from Planet Labs PBC (PL) , a global provider of high-resolution satellite imagery. This collaboration marks a milestone in Barchart's commitment to delivering cutting-edge agricultural insights to its clients.
Barchart’s enhanced yield forecasts, now powered by Planet's advanced satellite data, provide daily updates accessible via API or within cmdtyView, Barchart's premier solution for market intelligence, analysis, and risk management. The improved model offers national and state levels as well as county-level estimates, which have become increasingly vital following their discontinuation by the USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service. By leveraging Planet's data, Barchart can now provide measurements with improved accuracy of US soil conditions and yield throughout the growing season.
To access this data within cmdtyView, visit barchart.com/cmdtyview or for an enterprise solution, contact our sales team.
© Copyright 2020
Planet Labs PBC • All Rights Reserved.
© Copyright 2020
Planet Labs PBC • All Rights Reserved.
On the date of publication, William Osnato did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
