Manchester United's knockout campaign begins tonight with a clash of two of the world's biggest clubs as they travel to the Nou Camp to face Barcelona.
Erik ten Hag has brought a sense that trophies are a very real prospect this season and winning a European tie against an illustrious opponent will help underline that view. While Barcelona's Champions League elimination suggests that they are not quite the force of old, Xavi's side currently top La Liga and will pose a tough test.
But despite the understandable confidence United fans will take into the match, United have only been given a slim chance of emerging victorious in the first leg. ABC News statisticians FiveThirtyEight have given United just a 19 per cent percentage of winning the first leg against Barca, whose La Liga performances hand them a strong weighting in the algorithm.
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Los Culés have been handed a a 57 per cent chance of winning tonight and a 41 per cent chance of winning the second leg compared to United's 34 per cent Old Trafford chances. Overall Barca have been given an overall 67 per cent chance of reaching the last-16.
Barcelona and Arsenal are the favourited for the competition, with Barca narrowly leading the way with a 20 per cent chance of lifting the trophy compared to the Gunners' 18 per cent. United have been given a 5 per cent of winning the competition, alongside Feyenoord and Real Sociedad.
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