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The Guardian - UK
The Guardian - UK
Business
Graeme Wearden

UK ‘the golden child of Europe’ as stocks rally in London; US goods trade deficit widens as tariffs backfire – as it happened

A New York stock trader with an assembly of US President Donald Trump paraphernalia.
A New York stock trader with an assembly of US President Donald Trump paraphernalia. Photograph: Justin Lane/EPA

Closing summary

After another hectic week, it’s time to wrap up with a quick recap.

Thousands of UK customers suffered online banking problems today, with reports of trouble accessing internet and app services.

Lloyds, its Halifax and Bank of Scotland divisions, plus Nationwide, First Direct and TSB all reported problems with their online banking systems.

And after a day of work, five of the services have been restored – with TSB still reporting ‘intermittent’ problems with its internet and mobile banking.

Stock markets have been buffered by trade war worries, with heavy losses in Asia-Pacific markets overnight.

But the UK’s FTSE 100 has avoided the gloom, gaining 0.6% today, with analysts hopeful Britain can avoid being hit by new US tariffs, and could strike a trade deal with the US.

The existing threat of tariffs on imports from China, Canada and Mexico are worrying investors, and may also have driven a surge in imports to the US last month. The US trade in goods deficit widened sharply in January, seemingly as businesses tried to stock up on raw materials, parts and finished products before tariffs come in.

More encouragingly, the US PCE inflation index has eased a little.

In other news:

UK is now 'the golden child of Europe' as stocks rally in London

After a shaky start, Britain’s blue-chip share index has closed higher tonight, outpacing other European indices.

While trade war fears hit markets across the Asia-Pacific region, and on continental Europe, the FTSE 100 share index has closed 0.6% higher in London tonight, up 53.5 points at 8809 points.

That’s only 11 points short of the record high set by the FTSE 100 earlier this month.

Investors appear to be hoping that Britain can avoid incurring new tariffs imposed by Donald Trump, following Keir Starmer’s successful trip to the White House yesterday, where the US president suggested the two countries could agree a free trade deal.

Kathleen Brooks, research director at XTB, points out that the UK has one advantage – it doesn’t run a large trade surplus with the US, adding:

Combined with Trump’s fondness for the UK, and another invitation for a state visit at Buckingham Palace, this means that the UK is now the golden child of Europe. This is reflected in the UK’s asset prices: the FTSE 100 is higher on Friday as hopes grow for a quick trade deal with the US. The UK is also expected to avoid tariffs, after a successful trip to the US by PM Kier Starmer. The FTSE 350 is also resilient and is rising today, whereas European indices are mostly a seas of red.

The pound is the most resilient performer vs. the USD so far this week, while UK bonds have underperformed US bonds this week (US Treasury yields have fallen by more than UK Gilt yields), UK Gilts are performing well vs. the rest of Europe.

In contrast, Germany’s DAX was down 0.15% in late trading, and France’s CAC index was slightly lower.

As we covered this morning, stocks slumped in China, Japan and South Korea overnight after Trump declared new 10% tariffs on Chinese imports would be imposed next week.

Updated

Homebuyers in US canceled contracts at record rate for January

Another sign of economic angst – Homebuyers in the US canceled purchase contracts at a record pace last month.

About 14.3% of sales agreements fell through in January, up from 13.4% a year earlier and the highest level for the month in data going back to 2017, according to data from brokerage Redfin Corp reported by Bloomberg.

It suggests economic and political uncertainty gave buyers cold feet.

Bloomberg adds:

House hunters face an ever-growing list of pressures, from high mortgage rates and prices to concerns about how trade wars and federal government cutbacks may ripple through the economy. The high rate of cancellations casts a pall over prospects for the key spring sales season, which is just getting underway.

Updated

Shares in Chinese companies listed in America are falling today, as investors price in the new 10% tariff scheduled to be imposed next week.

This has pulled the iShares MSCI China ETF down by 2.25% today.

Stocks have opened higher on Wall Street, where the Dow Jones industrial average is up almost 0.5%, or 205 points, at 43,444.

The broader S&P 500 is up a similar amount.

US 1Q GDP growth concerns mount amid weak spending and surging imports

The surge in US goods imports in January (see earlier post) is a sign that Trump policy ‘negatives’ are outweighing the ‘positives’, warns ING.

James Knightley, ING’s chief international economist, fears that the White House’s focus on policies such as tariffs, and cuts to government departments, mean the US economy has started 2025 on a weak footing.

Knightley is also concerned by today’s data showing that US consumer spending fell last month.

He tells clients:

At the start of the year there was optimism that President Trump’s policy mix of light-touch regulation and lower taxes would turbo charge growth in an already solid looking economy. However, there has been little progress made on the ‘positives’ for growth – tax cuts and deregulation. Instead, the administration has been focusing on policies that yield ‘negative’ outcomes. Government austerity, as being initiated by DOGE, is prompting concerns in both the public and private sectors about job security and also entitlements while already financially-stressed lower- and middle-income households are not seeing any relief in the form of the lower prices they were promised. There is possibly also a growing awareness that tariffs will put up costs even more.

Another headwind for 1Q GDP growth has come from the advanced January goods trade report, which showed the merchandised trade gap widening to a record deficit of $153.3bn in January from $116.6bn in December. This is clear evidence that importers have tried to front run tariffs with imports surging 11.9% MoM. Industrial supply imports jumped from $67bn in December to $89.3bn in January with consumer goods imports jumping $6bn to $78.2bn. Interestingly automotive didn’t move much. Exports rose 2% MoM, but this did follow a 3.8% drop in December.

Updated

In another worrying sign, US consumer spending unexpectedly fell in January.

Consumer spending dropped by 0.2% last month after an upwardly revised 0.8% increase in December, the Commerce Department’s Bureau of Economic Analysis reports.

Microsoft is shutting down Skype

Over in the technology world, Microsoft is shutting down Skype, the once-pioneering calling and messaging service.

Fourteen years after buying Skype for $8.5bn, in its biggest-ever acquisition, Microsoft is shutting it down and migrating users to its Teams app.

Jeff Teper, president of Microsoft 365 collaborative apps and platforms, told CNBC:

“We’ve learned a lot from Skype over the years that we’ve put into Teams as we’ve evolved teams over the last seven to eight years.

“But we felt like now is the time because we can be simpler for the market, for our customer base, and we can deliver more innovation faster just by being focused on Teams.”

This is the end of an era, really. Skype, which was founded in 2003, was a major player in the voice-over-internet-protocol (VoIP) world, allowing users to make phone calls for free over the internet.

But the service has dwindled, as MS has prioritised Teams, as was illustrated when Skype didn’t benefit from the surge in demand for video group chats in the pandemic.

January’s surge in US goods imports is the second biggest since 1990, if not earlier, reports Kevin Gordon, senior investment strategist at Charles Schwab.

The only larger increase was in July 2020, early in the Covid-19 pandemic, when there was significant supply chain disruption.

Back in the UK, today’s disruption to some online banking services has caught the regulator’s attention.

A spokesperson for the Financial Conduct Authority says

“We’ve been engaging with firms as they resolve these issues and to ensure anyone affected doesn’t lose out.”

Here’s financial analyst Robbert van Batenburg on the “massive” US trade deficit in January:

US goods trade deficit widens sharply ahead of tariffs

America’s trade deficit in goods has widened sharply in January, amid anxiety about new tariffs making it more expensive to import goods.

The US goods trade gap surged to $153.3bn last month, new data from the Commerce Department’s Census Bureau shows, an increase of $31.2bn compared with December’s $122.0bn deficit.

The increase was driven by a chunky surge in goods imports – which rose by more than 10% in the month to $325.4bn, $34.6bn more than December imports.

US goods exports rose by much less, only up $3.3bn to $172.2bn.

This will do nothing to address Donald Trump’s concerns about the US trade deficit.

But it may be a sign that US businesses have been trying to avoid the president’s new tariffs on goods from China, Mexico and Canada – and possibly Europe too – by buying more from abroad before new levies kick in.

US PCE inflation rate eases

Over in the United States, an important measure of inflation has eased slightly.

The PCE price index, which tracks the costs of a range of goods and services, slowed to a 2.5% rise in the year to January, down from 2.6% in December.

Core PCE, which excludes the price of food and energy, eased to 2.6% per year – down from 2.9% in the 12 months to December.

PCE is the preferred inflation measure of the US central bank, the Federal Reserve, so this may reassure policymakers that inflationary pressures are easing….

TSB customers who are still struggling to get onto online banking could check out its interactive help guide, here.

GB News makes another loss

In the UK media world, GB News has racked up another annual loss despite a rise in revenues.

The right-leaning TV channel lost £33.4m in theyear to May 2024, an improvement on the £42.3m loss incurred in 2023. That, Press Gazette has calculated, takes its total losses since it launched in 2021 to over £100m.

GB News’s annual report, released today, show that revenues more than doubled last year, from £6.68m to £15.77m.

It can also boast a 53% increase in viewing figures, with its annual monthly reach up to 3.12m continuous views of at least thre minutes, from 2.73m in 2023.

However, that only lifts its ‘average linear share’ of the market, according to BARB audience figures, to 0.69% from 0.45% in 2023.

The report also outlines how GB News champions “robust, balanced debate”, giving a range of perspectives on issues, adding:

Hosts of shows on the channel come from a range of backgrounds and, where a viewpoint is stated, a broad church of opinion, faith, and politics. Presenters include Eamonn Holmes, Stephen Dixon, Anne Diamond, Ellie Costello, Andrew Pierce, Bev Turner, Emily Carver, Tom Harwood, Martin Daubney, Michelle Dewberry, Nigel Farage, Jacob Rees-Mogg, Patrick Christys, Andrew Doyle, Nana Akua, Camilla Tominey and Michael Portillo.

Last March, GB News was found to have repeatedly breached impartiality rules by allowing Conservative MPs to serve as news presenters in March last year.

UPDATE: However, Ofcom’s decisions that GB News twice broke impartiality rules during shows hosted by Sir Jacob Rees-Mogg when he was an MP have just been quashed at the High Court today!

In a judgment on Friday, Mrs Justice Collins Rice said the regulator’s decisions were “vitiated by error of law” and that Ofcom “conflated a news programme and a current affairs programme”.

In October, it was fined £100,000 for “breaking due impartiality rules” after an interview with the former prime minister Rishi Sunak earlier this year.

GB News is owned by Paul Marshall, whose hedge fund also suffered a tumble in profits last year:

Updated

Today’s problems with various banking apps may have created stress for taxpayers with unpaid self-assessment tax bills, who need to settle with HMRC by 2 March.

Audit, tax and business advisory firm Blick Rothenberg point out that people would face a 5% surcharge if they didn’t settle in time.

Andrew Sanford, a partner at Blick Rothenberg, said:

“The reported inability of Lloyds, TSB and Halifax users to use their banking Apps will cause considerable consternation to customers desperately seeking to make month end payments.”

“Taxpayers who have not paid their self-assessment tax bills will be hit with a 5% surcharge on unpaid if the bill is not settled by 2 March. They may be waiting for payday to settle their liabilities. They will be particularly concerned by this latest banking app failure.”

Fortunately, all but TSB’s banking services appear to be working normally again now…..

We’re now waiting for TSB to catch up with its rivals and get its services working properly too.

TSB’s service status page is still reporting “intermittent” problems with internet and mobile banking, which means some customers are having issues logging in.

Nationwide: Everything is now working normally

The problems at Nationwide appear to be fixed too!

Its status page now reads: Our services are working normally

[It had previously warned of delays to incoming and outgoing payments]

Here’s our news story about today’s online banking problems:

Lloyds: Services are working normally again

Lloyds Bank tell us that their app and online banking services are now working as normal for Lloyds, Halifax, and Bank of Scotland customers.

Today’s widespread online banking problems are likely to concern MPs.

Parliament’s Treasury Committee is already asking banks to report how many IT outages they have suffered over the last two years, the causes, how many customers were affected, and what – if any – compensation has been paid out.

Halifax have clarified that their technical problem is affecting its customers’ ability to log into its app, or online bank account.

In other banking news, the UK government has trimmed its shareholding in NatWest to below 6%.

The government now owns 5.93% of NatWest, down from 6.98% previously – and 84.9% back in the financial crisis when the bank, then called Royal Bank of Scotland, was bailed out.

The taxpayers’ stake has been steadily eroded through a drip-feed of shares to the stock market through a “trading plan”, rather than the “Tell Sid”-style privatisation planned by the previous government.

Outages: What the banks say

Nationwide are also advising customers there is no need to resend payments which are delayed by today’s technical problems.

A Nationwide spokesperson says:

“We’ve identified an issue that was causing a delay to some incoming and outgoing payments. We’re now processing the queued payments, although we ask customers to bear with us as we complete their transactions. There is no need for people to resend payments. We apologise for an inconvenience caused.

First Direct have confirmed their services are now “currently operating as normal”, after this morning’s technical issue.

TSB say they are “working hard” to get their services back too.

“We’re aware of industry-wide issues this morning, and that some of our customers are unable to log into our mobile app, and internet banking. We apologise for this and are working hard to resolve it.”

A Lloyds Banking Group spokesperson has said:

“We know some customers are having issues with internet banking and our apps. We’re sorry about this and we’re working to have it back to normal soon.”

Updated

Nationwide says that the incoming and outgoing payments which have been delayed today are “in a queue and will arrive ASAP”.

First Direct: customers can now make payments as normal

First Direct say the problems which hit its service this morning have been fixed.

In a Service Update, it reports:

Customers can now make payments as normal via mobile and online banking following an earlier issue. Our teams continue to monitor. Very sorry to anyone who has been inconvenienced this Friday morning.

It’s status page suggests services are working normally:

Updated

Bank of Scotland also affected

There are also problems at Bank of Scotland (which is part of Lloyds Banking Group).

BoS have released the same message as Lloyds and Halifax:

Problems at TSB too

TSB bank is also suffering technical problems with online and mobile banking today.

Posting on X, it says:

We are aware that some of our customers are having issues logging on to our mobile app, and internet banking. We apologise for this and are working hard to resolve it - and will share an update as soon as possible.

TSB’s status page reports “Intermittent” problems with both internet and mobile banking.

Nationwide’s service status page warns customers that “Some incoming and outgoing payments are delayed at the moment”.

Nationwide adds:

Here’s what you might need to know:

  • Some payments to and from your account are delayed at the moment

  • If you’ve sent money already or are waiting for money to arrive you don’t need to do anything, it’s in a queue and will arrive ASAP

  • You can still send money, but this won’t go through straight away

  • Direct Debits and standing orders are working normally

You can continue to:

  • move money between accounts

  • use your cards online and in shops

  • log-in to our Internet Bank and Banking app

  • withdraw money at cash machines.

Updated

Halifax customers on X are reporting that today’s online banking problems are preventing them making important payments, and accessing their pay:

Problems on payday, again...

This is the second month running that some UK banks have suffered online banking problems on payday.

For many workers, the final working day of the month is the date when their pay packets land in their bank accounts.

Some experts have warned that the online banking systems often struggles to handle the high rate of activity as wages and bills go in and out of accounts at the end of each month.

Fintech expert Chris Skinner has told the PA news agency that banks are finding it “too hard to keep up” with fast-moving technology.

Skinner says:

“I think there’s an issue here with reliability, service and resilience, and that’s the accountability of the people who are organising the structures, both from within the business, and those who look over the business in terms of the regulators.

“At the moment, I think both are probably finding it too hard to keep up.”

Updated

Major banks hit by online issues

Some UK customers are suffering online banking problems today.

Nationwide, First Direct, Lloyds and Halifax have all confirmed issues with their online banking systems, and say they’re working to fix them.

Nationwide said in a message on its website that “some incoming and outgoing payments are delayed at the moment”, but that “everything else is working normally”.

It said direct debits and standing orders were working as normal, but that payments were in a queue and would arrive soon, adding that customers did not need to do anything.

Meanwhile, First Direct confirmed on its website that both its mobile and online banking were “experiencing issues with payments”.

There’s also been a rise in problems reported by Lloyds customers, and at its Halifax operation, according to the Downdetector website.

Posting on X, Lloyds says:

We know some of our customers are having issues logging on to internet banking and our app. We’re sorry for this, and we’re working to have everything back to normal.

Updated

China’s commerce ministry has vowed to take “necessary countermeasures” to safeguard the country’s rights and interests, following the threat of new US tariffs landing next week.

A spokesperson for China’s Commerce Ministry said today:

“China has repeatedly stressed that unilateral tariffs violate WTO rules and damage multilateral trading system. China firmly opposes the US’ move.”

China accuses US of fentanyl 'blackmail' after latest tariff threat

Beijing has accused the United States of exerting “tariff pressure and blackmail”, following president Donald Trump’s threat to add an extra duty of 10% on imports from China.

Foreign ministry spokesperson Lin Jian told a daily briefing that Washington had used the issue of fentanyl shipments into the US to create “tariff pressure and blackmail,”

Lin said:

“It has created a serious impact, pressure, coercion and threat to the dialogue and cooperation between the two sides in the field of drug control,”.

Lin added that “remarkable results have been achieved” tackling the movement of fentanyl-like substances from China to the US.

FTSE 100 avoids worst of the selloff

The UK’s blue chip share index has dropped this morning, as fears over new US tariffs on China hit miners listed on the London stock exchange.

The FTSE 100 has dropped by 39 points, or 0.45%, to 8716 points, wiping out yesterday’s gains.

Natural resource stocks are being hammered, with gold producer Endeavour Mining (-3.2), copper producer Antofagasta (-3%), Anglo American (-2.1%) and Rio Tinto (-2.2%) in the top fallers.

But that’s a smaller fall than we’ve seen in Europe, let alone in China, today. Airline group IAG have jumped 4% after beating City forecasts this morning, while Rolls-Royce are up another 2.7% after blowout results yesterday.

The FTSE 100 might benefit from Keir Starmer’s visit to Washington this week, where Donald Trump said the two sides could end up with “a real trade deal”, avoiding tariffs.

Derren Nathan, head of equity research at Hargreaves Lansdown, says investors will want more details….

Tariffs continue to drive the narrative, and talk of a reprieve for Canada and Mexico has evaporated as next Tuesday’s deadline approaches.

President Trump has also vowed to slap an additional 10% import duty onto Chinese goods, as he leans heavily on the anti-fentanyl narrative to justify the trade restrictions. The only certainty in this saga is uncertainty, so keep a close eye on developments between now and 4 March. Next on the agenda is reciprocal tariffs pencilled in for 2 April with other major US trading partners. The EU, in particular, will be in focus.

An amicable start to talks with UK premier Keir Starmer looks to have set the tone for a potential trade deal with the UK but with no details outlined it has not been enough to boost enthusiasm for London listed shares.

Updated

European markets fall at the open

European stock markets have opened in the red, as trade war concerns escalate.

The pan-European Stoxx 600 index fell 0.5% at the start of trading, with Germany’s DAX down 0.6%.

This follows losses on Wall Street last night, where the S&P 500 index lost 1.6%.

Jim Reid, market strategist at Deutsche Bank, says a tech selloff, and trade angst, were responsible:

Markets were in a stressed mood of their own yesterday, with renewed tariff threats from President Trump in addition to a sharp tech sell-off that saw the Magnificent 7 (-3.03%) post its worst day of 2025 so far as Nvidia slumped -8.48% after its earnings the previous evening.

This marked a sixth consecutive decline for the Mag-7, the first time that’s happened since April last year, and it now leaves the index -13.56% beneath its December peak.

Updated

Asia-Pacific stocks hit by China tariffs

Shares have fallen sharply across Asia-Pacific markets after Donald Trump announced that a new 10% tariff will be imposed on Chinese imports to the US next week.

China’s CSI 300 index has fallen almost 2% today, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index has slumped by 3.7%.

The selloff spread across the region, with Japan’s Nikkei down 2% and the Kospi 200 index sliding by 3.5%.

Investors are alarmed by president Trump’s plan to hit goods from China with a new 10% tariff on 4 March, and also add 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico on the same date.

Michael Brown, senior research strategist at Pepperstone, says the “surprise additional US tariffs on China” have hit risk sentiment…. but a last-minute reprieve can’t be totally ruled out.

Brown explains:

It had looked as if a degree of ‘tariff fatigue’ had set in, though clearly participants aren’t prepared to ignore this apparent escalation in Trump’s protectionist stance, with stocks violently and rapidly selling-off as the headlines crossed.

It must be said, though, that this could yet again be a case of Trump ‘crying wolf’, were some kind of concessions to be extracted from Canada or Mexico before next Tuesday.

Updated

Ramsden: trade uncertainty may be hurting UK economy

Sir Dave Ramsden has also warned that uncertainty over trade policy could already be hurting the UK economy.

He tells Stellenbosch University that geopolitical uncertainties have been heightened for several years, adding:

In addition, there is significant uncertainty around the next steps the current US administration will take with regards to tariffs, and the potential actions of other countries in response.

At present we do not have any specific enough information to build into our forecasting models. However, it is clear that uncertainty about global trade policy is already heightened.

He then produces a chart, showing that trade policy uncertainty reached record highs in January 2025:

Ramsden adds:

And this may already be impacting on the global and UK economy via financial markets and via confidence channels.

Nationwide: House price growth remains solid in February

While Dave Ramsden’s speaking in South Africa, UK lender Nationwide was reporting that house price growth “remains solid in February”.

Nationwide’s latest house price report shows that prices rose by 0.4% this month, up from the 0.1% rise reported in January, and the sixth monthly rise in a row.

But, the annual rate of house price growth dipped to 3.9% for the year to February, compared with 4.1% in January.

Robert Gardner, Nationwide’s chief economist, says:

“Housing market activity has also remained resilient in recent months, despite ongoing affordability challenges. Indeed, the second half of 2024 saw a noticeable pick up in total housing transactions, which were up 14% compared with the same period in 2023.

However, taking 2024 as a whole, transactions were still modestly (6%) lower than the levels prevailing before the pandemic struck in 2019.

Updated

Introduction: BoE's Ramsden says inflation risks no longer to downside

Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of business, the financial markets and the world economy.

A Bank of England deputy governor is banging the drum for taking a “gradual and careful approach” to interest rate cuts, given the twin threats of inflationary pressures and weak growth.

But, Sir Dave Ramsden isn’t ruling out sharper cuts, if needed, while also flagging a rising risk that inflation could run over target.

Ramsden is speaking right now at the Bureau for Economic Research, at South Africa’s Stellenbosch University, and he reveals he is now “less certain” that the UK labour market will continue to cool, easing inflationary pressures.

Ramsden says:

Because of the evidence of recent months I no longer think that risks to hitting the 2% inflation target sustainably in the medium term are to the downside.

Instead, I think they are two sided, reflecting the potential for more inflationary as well as disinflationary scenarios. I do, though, think the core disinflationary process remains intact.

Ramden notes that UK inflation rose to 3% in January, adding:

UK inflation is expected to rise in the short term to around 3.7% and is then forecast to fall back to close to the 2% target in the second half of the forecast period.

That change of mind follows the latest unemployment report, which showed that UK wage growth accelerated to 6% at the end of last year – three times as fast as the Bank’s 2% inflation target.

Those fast-rising earnings could deter Bank policymakers from cutting interest rates swiftly during 2025 – it has already made one cut, earlier this month, bringing Bank rate down to 4.5%.

With a nod to his audience, Ramsden says:

As a keen mountain climber, I was very pleased when the MPC’s policy of maintaining Bank rate at a level of 5.25 percent from August 2023 to August 2024 became associated with South Africa’s Table Mountain.

The ‘Table Mountain’ phase was when the Bank left interest rates on hold at 5.25%, from summer 2023 to summer 2024, before making three cuts since.

Stretching the mountaineering analogy, Ramsden says:

I know from my own experience that great care needs to be taken on the descent from a mountain; tiredness often sets in, concentration can lapse, obstacles have to be bypassed and at the end of a long day the weather can deteriorate.

A gradual and careful approach is always needed on the way down a mountain to ensure a safe descent and a successful outcome. But that doesn’t always mean the descent has to be slow. There may be circumstances when a slower than expected descent is justified but there will also be times when conditions require that the pace has to quicken.

Ramsden is a relatively dovish member of the Bank’s monetary policy committee. He was one of three policymakers who voted for a rate cut in December (along with Swati Dhingra and Alan Taylor), but they were outvoted by the other six.

Today, Ramsden explains that he was motivated by worries that wages might slow sharply:

My concerns about the risks from this scenario playing out were what led me to vote in the minority for a 25bp cut in Bank rate at our December 2024 meeting.

The agenda

  • 7am GMT: Nationwide’s UK house price index for February

  • 7am GMT: Bank of England deputy governor Dave Ramsden gives speech on monetary policy at Stellenbosch University

  • 7.45am GMT: Final estimate of French GDP for Q4 2024

  • 1pm GMT: German inflation report for February

  • 1.30pm GMT: US PCE inflation measure for January

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