US stockmarkets broke their three-week losing streak this week, rebounding after a collapse in the price of oil eased fears about higher inflation and higher interest rates.
After trading to a seven-week low this week, Australia’s ASX200 found some support as US equity markets steadied; the June quarter GDP figures were solid, and there was a slightly dovish tilt at Tuesday’s RBA meeting.
Here are the top five things that happened in markets this week:
1. RBA is determined to get the job done
The Reserve Bank of Australia board raised the official cash rate, as expected, by 50-basis points from 1.85 per cent to 2.35 per cent, reiterating its commitment to see inflation return to its 2 to 3 per cent target band.
The statement that accompanied the RBA’s rate hike on Tuesday suggested a more moderate pace of rises going forward, and was again hinted at in RBA governor Philip Lowe’s speech at the Anika Foundation lunch on Thursday.
“We are conscious that there are lags in the operation of monetary policy and that interest rates have increased very quickly. And we recognise that, all else equal, the case for a slower pace of increase in interest rates becomes stronger as the level of the cash rate rises.”
2. June quarter Australian GDP
The national accounts showed the Australian economy in the June quarter expanded by a solid 0.9 per cent quarter on quarter, and 3.6 per cent year on year.
From here, things look a little less rosy.
The figures coincided with the start of the RBA’s rate-hiking cycle in May and came just one day after it raised rates by 50-basis points to 2.35 per cent.
Growth will slow into year end, reflecting the impact of the RBA’s 225-basis points of rate hikes to date.
3. Canada raises rates, but offers hope
After a 100-basis point rate hike last month, the Bank of Canada (BoC) opted for ‘‘only’’ a 75-basis points rise this week, taking its key rate to 3.25 per cent.
The BoC became the first G10 central bank to slow the pace of its rate hikes.
This offers hope to mortgage holders that its aggressive rate hiking cycle is nearing an end.
4. Crude oil cascades lower
Crude oil fell to $81.50, its lowest level in seven months, as a surprise build in inventories and fears of recession pushed it through technical support at $85.
Presuming the price of crude oil doesn’t rebound immediately, it will mean less pain for motorists once the fuel exercise discount ends in three weeks.
5. Yen dives again
The Japanese yen weakened to 145 per dollar for the first time since August 1998.
The exchange rate was underpinned by the Bank of Japan keeping interest rates at ultra-low levels, while the US central bank, the Federal Reserve, takes its key interest rate towards 4 per cent.
Interest rate differentials between countries are one of the main drivers of currency pairs in the foreign exchange market.
