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Bank of America analyst Vivek Arya is not entirely convinced that Nvidia (NVDA) will guide for a strong first quarter of its fiscal 2026 on February 26.
Arya expects the AI chips behemoth to come in modestly ahead of Street estimates in its Q4, but says that near-term headwinds from “Blackwell transition, Hopper declines, and China restrictions” could lead to some softness in its current quarter guidance, he told clients in a note on Tuesday.
Year-to-date, Nvidia stock is up just over 4% at the time of writing.
How Nvidia Stock May React After Q4 Earnings
Potential weakness in Nvidia’s first-quarter outlook could result in some stock price volatility after the company’s earnings release, according to Arya. But the bull run will resume shortly afterwards on the back of optimism related to NVDA’s next-generation AI chips, he added in a report this morning.
The Bank of America analyst continues to see Nvidia stock as a “top pick” for long-term exposure to the rapidly growing artificial intelligence market.
On Tuesday, Arya reiterated his $190 price target on Nvidia stock that indicates potential for more than 35% upside from current levels.
What GTC Conference May Mean for NVDA Shares
The analyst sees Nvidia as much more than just a chipmaker as it has a powerful software platform (CUDA) as well that helps customers extract the best out of its hardware.
On March 17, the semiconductor giant will unveil GB300 as well as its next-generation AI accelerators dubbed “Rubin” that’s broadly expected to grow its footprint in quantum computing.
Together, the announcements at the GTC conference will help unlock significant further upside in NVDA shares, as per the BofA report.
Analysts Are Bullish Heading into Nvidia’s Q4 Earnings
Investors should also note that Bank of America is not the only firm that’s bullish on Nvidia stock heading into its quarterly earnings on February 26. Wall Street currently has a consensus “Strong Buy” rating on NVDA with a mean target of $177.55 indicating potential upside of 25% from current levels.
Nvidia shares re currently going for 34 times its earnings for its fiscal 2026, which is attractive considering historically that multiple lies between 25 times and 56 times.
