Apprehensions at the southern border have continued to drop sharply over the past months, raising the chances that the government's ban on asylum seeking could be lifted.
Concretely, arrests have dropped about 30% month-over-month, reaching a new low for the Biden administration. Customs and Border Patrol expects the final figure to be around 57,000, down from over 83,500 in June and far below the over more than 250,000 in December last year. It would also be the lowest figure since September 2020, when the Covid-19 pandemic contributed to a large drop in movement across the continent.
Border crossings had been dropping throughout the year as immigration became an electoral liability for then-President Joe Biden. But they began to plummet as of June 5, when the administration began implementing an executive action cracking down on asylum seeking for those crossing the border illegally.
The measure determines the ban will go into effect once the seven-day average of daily encounters surpasses 2,500 and will be lifted once it drops below 1,500. Figures were much higher when the executive action was announced, meaning the ban began immediately. But as they continue to drop, standing between 1,600 and 1,700 a day, they near the point when the ban could be lifted.
Speaking to The Associated Press, CBP officials said that the biggest declines have come from "nationalities that are easiest to deport, including Mexicans," but that people from other countries are also showing up in lower numbers. For example, there are fewer Chinese nationals arriving at the southern border after Ecuador imposed a new visa requirement given the amount of nationals reaching the country that left unlawfully.
Should apprehensions effectively below the threshold, the order will be "discontinued 14 days after" Department of Homeland Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas makes a "factual determination" regarding this. It will be reimposed if the average goes back to surpassing 2,500.
However, the government is not forced to do so, and Democrats are seemingly comfortable with their tougher approach on the issue. This week, Vice President Kamala Harris' campaign chief suggested she will keep the current crackdown if elected.
Julie Chávez-Rodríguez, who has President Joe Biden's campaign chief and stayed on as Harris, told CBS News that "the policies that are having real impact on ensuring that we have security and order at our border are policies that will continue."
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