The Baltimore Orioles were one of the feel-good stories in baseball last year, winning 101 games in the regular season. However, their postseason run was cut short by the Texas Rangers. Despite their impressive record, the Orioles' starting rotation was a weak spot, lacking a true ace. That has changed with the acquisition of Corbin Burnes from the Milwaukee Brewers.
The trade, which sent reliever DL Hall, infield prospect Joey Ortiz, and a competitive balance draft pick to the Brewers, has been widely discussed and debated. From the Orioles' perspective, it was a move befitting a contender looking to bolster their rotation. For the Brewers, it was about getting the most value for Burnes, who is likely to leave as a free agent next offseason.
But let's focus on Burnes himself and his standing among the best starting pitchers in the game. Burnes holds the 2021 Cy Young Award and has consistently been a top performer, finishing 7th and 8th in the voting in the subsequent two seasons. According to my batted ball-based method, Burnes actually fared even better, finishing 3rd in both 2022 and 2023.
When evaluating pitchers, several factors come into play. These include their ability to miss bats, limit walks, manage contact, and their durability in terms of innings pitched. Burnes has excelled in multiple areas. In 2021 and 2022, he had elite strikeout rates of 36.7% and 35.6%, ranking in the 99th and 98th percentile among all pitchers in the league. His walk rate has been consistently low, providing him with a comfortable margin for error.
What sets Burnes apart is his exceptional ability to manage contact. While he doesn't rely on a specific pitch to induce weak contact, he excels in limiting authority across all types of batted balls. His average exit velocity allowed in 2023 was the best among pitchers with qualifying ERAs, and he performed well in fly ball and ground ball exit velocity as well. Overall, his Adjusted Contact Score, a metric that assesses a pitcher's effectiveness in managing contact, was the best among all pitchers with qualifying ERAs in MLB. This marked his second time receiving the MLB Contact Manager of the Year recognition in three years.
Now let's compare Burnes to another top pitcher, Gerrit Cole. Cole has long been considered one of the best in the game and has a superior track record in terms of strikeout-to-walk ratio. In a five-year span from 2018-2022, Cole's performance mirrored Burnes' peak in 2021. However, when it comes to contact management, Cole has not been as effective. Throughout his career, he has struggled with allowing hard-hit balls, particularly on fly balls and line drives. Although Cole's durability is impressive, with more innings pitched than Burnes, the combination of Burnes' superior contact management and similar overall performance had me assessing Burnes slightly ahead in terms of 'Tru' Pitching Runs Above Average. It should be noted that this difference is within a reasonable margin of error.
One interesting aspect of Burnes' pitching repertoire is his reliance on his cutter, similar to the legendary Mariano Rivera. Combining it with a changeup, curve, and slider, all of which are plus pitches, Burnes keeps hitters off balance. It poses a daunting challenge for opposing batters, particularly those in the American League, who have limited exposure to facing him.
At 29 years old, Burnes will become a free agent at the end of the season. It remains to be seen if the Orioles will secure him for the long term. His addition to their rotation is a shrewd move for a young contending team looking to take the next step. The new ownership group of the Orioles may make a strong push to keep Burnes in their rotation for years to come.
In conclusion, Corbin Burnes brings a combination of strikeout dominance, excellent control, and elite contact management to the Baltimore Orioles' starting rotation. His acquisition instantly upgrades their pitching staff and gives them a true ace. Whether the Orioles can retain him beyond this season remains uncertain, but for now, they have a pitcher who can compete with the best in the game.
