The first return of the Bristol Balloon Fiesta in full since the pandemic could be the hottest ever - with temperatures forecast to rise into the low 30s by the weekend - but there is another factor about the weather that could impact on people in Bristol experiencing the delights of the mass balloon ascents - the wind.
Forecasters are predicting the entire festival will see light breezes, which should mean all seven planned mass ascents take place, but the wind direction will mean little, if anything, will be visible from Bristol.
When the balloons take off from Ashton Court for the first time on Thursday evening - and for the rest of the next four days - an easterly breeze is predicted to blow the balloons gently away from the city and over the fields of North Somerset towards Long Ashton, Failand, Nailsea and Clevedon instead.
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So it could well be that the only way to guarantee seeing balloons flying at the Bristol Balloon Fiesta this year, is to actually go to Ashton Court.
The Met Office forecast for the fiesta is for wall-to-wall sunshine, and near perfect conditions for ballooning, at least in the morning ascents.
Seven mass ascents are planned, with the first just after 6pm on Thursday. There will then be mass ascents planned for 6am and 6pm on Friday, Saturday and Sunday, with the balloon crews rushing back on Thursday and Saturday to take part in the traditional Night Glow event back at Ashton Court at 9pm.
But the Met Office forecast for wind direction for each of the four days is something a little different to the prevailing westerly or south-westerly wind that tends to take balloons taking off from Ashton Court over the city centre, Clifton or Bedminster and Brislington.
Usually, thousands of people fill hilltop vantage spots around Bristol, including Brandon Hill, Troopers Hill, Perrets Park, the Northern Slopes or Stoke Park to watch the balloons float across the city.
But this year, it looks like many of those vantage points in the city will get a fleeting glimpse of the balloons as they rise from Ashton Court and float away - with the wind taking them in the opposite direction out of Bristol.
The Met Office forecast for 7pm on Thursday - when the balloons will be rising up from Ashton Court, is for a gentle East-North-Easterly breeze of 6 knots. The forecast for Friday morning's mass ascent is for a north-easterly breeze, swinging gently round to an easterly for Friday evening's mass ascent.
On Saturday, the forecast is for north-easterly breeze of just 5 knots in the morning, with a south-easterly breeze of 6 knots by the evening ascent time. And it's more of the same on Sunday, with an easterly breeze in the morning and a south-easterly breeze in the evening - all of which would take the balloons to locations west of the Avon Gorge, from Portishead to Clevedon and the North Somerset countryside in between - and away from Bristol.
"Looking at the forecast, the only way to guarantee seeing a balloon in Bristol this week is by going up to the fiesta site itself at Ashton Court," said Jo Bailey, from Bailey Balloons, one of the ballooning teams who will be flying from the fiesta. "And it's really worth doing anyway, because it's only at the fiesta site that you get the true experience of a mass ascent, seeing all the balloons take off pretty much together."
The heat will play a factor in the ballooning this week too - but it shouldn't be too hot to fly altogether. "The heat means pilots will be having to make different calculations, but unless it gets really, really hot - like in the high 30s - it shouldn't mean no one can fly.
"To get the lift, your balloon has to be hotter than the air around you, so when it's hot it means you need more heat in the balloon, or less weight in the basket," added Jo. "We're already doing fresh calculations looking at the temperatures being forecast. It may mean delaying the evening ascents a bit to let things cool down a bit. The temperature does drop quite quickly in the evenings in August, so it should be fine."
The temperatures on the ground being forecast by the Met Office are sweltering for the four day fiesta. Thursday is predicted to reach a high of 31 deg C in Bristol by 4pm, and will only have dropped to 30deg C by 7pm. On Friday, the morning mass ascent will be in near-perfect conditions of around 18 deg C, but temperatures by mid-afternoon will be even higher than Thursday at 32 deg C.
The Friday mass ascent will again be in temperatures of 30 deg C or higher. with an almost idential forecast for Saturday too. Only on Sunday will things be slightly less hot - with a high of a still-baking 28 deg C during the day.
"We've told all our passengers to make sure they bring water, sun cream and hats, people should be prepared," added Jo Bailey.
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