Do you like sea shanties? No? Well bare with me as I serenade you with a modified version of The Wellerman
There once was a man who came from CLE
Whose resurgence is something we did not foresee
His talents were doubted
As was his heart
But still that ball, he throws
Baker Mayfield did come
And the Buccaneers now are 3-1
One day when the season is done
They’ll take the division and go
Lovely.
Baker Mayfield was well on his way to becoming a journeyman quarterback. He was labeled a bad teammate by the Browns to try to find a way to defend giving Deshaun Watson historic money and was dealt the hand of having Matt Rhule as his head coach in Carolina before having a respectful cup of coffee with the Rams and signing with the Buccaneers as a free agent.
Between July 5th, 2022 and March 17th, 2023, Mayfield had been on four different teams, and Tampa was all but certainly going to be his final shot to be a long-term starter. There was already doubt surrounding the Buccaneers in a post-Tom Brady world, and adding a guy who had hot potatoed around the league throughout 2022 felt like the Glazer’s telling fans to look forward to the 2024 NFL Draft more than anything.
What we’ve seen on the field, though, should have the brigade of Bucs fans’ thinking more toward hosting a playoff game than hosting a Caleb Williams draft party. Mayfield hasn’t just been suitable or adequate- he’s been good. He’s currently fourth in the NFL in touchdown passes, and has only thrown two interceptions.
He’s fifth in the league in CPOE (completion percentage over expected) trailing only the likes of Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts, and Tua Tagovailoa. His 1.6 interception percentage is one of the lowest in the league, and is 5.6 touchdown percentage is the sixth-highest. He’s also ninth in passer rating and sixth in EPA per dropback. Needless to say that Baker is baking, and he’s got a variety of goods. A nice ziti touchdown pass to Mike Evans on an in-breaker? You got it. Some festive pumpkin cookie lasers to Chris Godwin? Absolutely.
Baker Mayfield continues to create highlight plays off of elite pocket movement and throwing on the run 🔥pic.twitter.com/Yuqnp1WHle
— Spittin' Cap™️ (@SpittinCap) October 1, 2023
My favorite stat of Mayfield’s, though, is that he is third in the NFL in win probability added per dropback. Meaning he isn’t just a bystander or a passenger in the Buccaneers’ offense, he’s driving the car.
Offensive coordinator Dave Canales also deserves a ton of credit, as well. he’s leaning into what Baker does well, and that has helped the offense. This isn’t the Bruce Arians “risk it for the biscuit” air raid system. Rather, it’s consistent intermediate throws between the sticks, with a respectable dosage of shots downfield when the opportunity arises.
When you look at where the Buccaneers sit, and how the rest of the NFC South is playing, they seem to be in control of their own destiny. The Saints are as explosive as a wet match, the Falcons’ receivers seem ready to give Desmond Ridder a spinning heel kick at any moment, and the poor Bryce Young is throwing to the Touchdown Wire staff at receiver for the Panthers to do anything of note offensively.
Tampa Bay, and Mayfield, had a ton of doubters entering the season- I was one of the loudest ones. But the way this passing game is clicking, and how the team seemingly loves playing for No. 6, a playoff game in Raymond James Stadium seems more and more likely by the week.
