You don’t need to dig too deep into the numbers to know that Carolina Panthers quarterback Baker Mayfield is off to a nightmare start here in 2022. But, since we’re so kind, we’ll dig right in anyway.
Contributor for The Athletic and the computer cowboy himself Ben Baldwin just dropped some fresh metrics, putting a bit of a bow on the season’s first month of play. And when it comes to quarterbacks, Mayfield is almost off-the-charts bad . . . literally.
The following graph pairs expected points per play (EPA) with completion percentage above expected (CPOE). The former measures how many points a player is worth to his team—essentially, football’s version of wins above replacement (WAR)—as the latter contextualizes their completion percentage while factoring in degree of difficulty.
Unfortunately for Carolina, Mayfield ranks last in both—giving us this . . .
Quarterback EPA+CPOE leaders entering MNF Week 4 (per @benbbaldwin):
1. Geno Smith
2. Ryan Tannehill
3. Tua Tagovailoa
4. Patrick Mahomes
5. Josh Allen pic.twitter.com/b74vKaleEV— Underdog NFL (@Underdog__NFL) October 3, 2022
As if that wasn’t enough, Baldwin also charted overall offensive grades from Pro Football Focus against predictive EPA and CPOE index. The results are, sadly, quite similar.
Geno Smith? pic.twitter.com/8nDzJe84nz
— Computer Cowboy (@benbbaldwin) October 4, 2022
If you’re more of a meat and potatoes kind of person, the conventional stats aren’t pretty either. Through four games, Mayfield has thrown three interceptions, has been credited with five fumbles, has a league-high 10 batted balls and averages just 186.8 passing yards per game.
Well, at least the only way to go is up.
