WASHINGTON – Mitch McConnell has had the National Defense Authorization Act on his brain for weeks, complaining about the pace of the annual allocation for military spending and warning that its size will be integral in deterring creeping Chinese aggression.
With the $886 billion bill set to hit the House floor next week, the tenor and breadth of the debate will begin to reveal the chasm between the more conservative House – which is seeking a slew of cultural and spending restraints – and the Senate, which is prioritizing robust military deterrence around the globe.
Some hardline House Republicans are already balking at voting for the immense measure if it contains continued funding for Ukraine’s battle against Russian aggression, spending that McConnell sees as an imperative.
Last month, McConnell indicated he believes the $886 billion total earmarked for 2024 defense spending is “simply insufficient” and senators from both parties’ have expressed support for a supplemental stipend to bolster the Ukrainian counteroffensive.
“If you want to send a message to President Xi in China, defeat Russia in Ukraine,” McConnell said during a visit to Fort Knox on Wednesday.
House Speaker Kevin McCarthy’s position has been muddled, saying during a trip in Israel he would vote for Ukrainian aid months after insisting the war-torn country would not receive a “blank check.”
The U.S. has provided Ukraine with more than $75 billion in assistance since Russia invaded its neighbor in February of 2022, including $30 billion in military aid, $24 billion in economic aid and $11 billion for humanitarian purposes.
But as the war slogs through a second year and a stalemate continues, the share of Americans souring on U.S. involvement has steadily ticked up.
More than 4 in 10 (44%) Republicans now say the U.S. is giving too much aid to Ukraine, up from 40% in January, according to a Pew Research Center poll released in June.
That’s likely to put pressure on some conservative lawmakers to pump the breaks on the spigot of financial assistance the U.S. is sending overseas.
Michael O’Hanlon, a senior fellow and director of research for Brookings Foreign Policy, said it’s still too early to predict how the NDAA will play out – except that a swift agreement is unlikely. It’s likely to take months to resolve differences between the chambers.
“I would be stunned if anything like consensus emerged early in the summer. I’d be surprised if anything like consensus emerged even by Sept. 30,” O’Hanlon said. “This feels like yet another year of continuing resolutions, piecemeal agreements, wait-and-see approaches, baby steps towards compromise—and perhaps a decent amount of brinkmanship along the way too.”
McConnell has delivered two speeches in the past month highlighting how the NDAA should be composed to combat China and “improve our ability to project power into the Asia-Pacific” through deepening cooperation between allies.
“It’s an opportunity to reform America’s sluggish foreign military sales procedures, promote interoperability, and expand joint exercises and access agreements across the region,” the GOP leader said on the Senate floor. “Remember, threats of sanctions and stern diplomatic warnings didn’t deter Vladimir Putin in Ukraine. Words alone will not deter Chinese aggression in Asia.”
While the Senate is expected to take up its own version of the NDAA sometime later this month, the House is set to move first, considering dozens of amendments next week.
Those include everything from restricting diversity programs to prohibiting sending F-16s and long-range missiles to Ukraine to ending marijuana testing for military personnel when they choose to enlist and term-limiting the Capitol’s attending physician.
Rep. Thomas Massie, the northern Kentucky Republican who typically votes against the annual Pentagon bill, will be a key vote given that McCarthy has only a wafer-thin four-vote margin to achieve passage.
On the Senate side, Rand Paul has also been a reliable “no” vote on NDAA, having voted against final passage of the sweeping spending bill in both 2021 and 2022.
And in the waning days of former Donald Trump’s administration in 2021, McConnell’s GOP- controlled Senate voted to override the president’s veto of a $741 billion defense bill.
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