A boom in births a decade ago has left Bristol high schools too full and primary schools too empty. A bulge in pupil numbers is now working its way through school year groups, with one primary school due to close and two new high schools due to open from September.
City Hall chiefs are now grappling with how to change the capacity of schools across Bristol to cope with the flux in demand. About three in four pupils starting Year 7 this September were offered their first preference, less than last year, with pressure higher in north Bristol.
Pupils not getting their first choice of high school can result in many knock-on problems. Details of the challenges facing education bosses were revealed in a recent report to the council’s schools forum, which will meet on Tuesday, May 23, to discuss the issues.
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Reena Bhogal-Welsh, director of education and skills, said: “The city continues to experience rising demand for secondary school places. Bristol has previously seen a dramatic rise in primary school pupil numbers. Reception admissions peaked in 2016 and since then numbers have continued to fall, mainly due to falling birth rates.
“Although it was possible to offer all pupils a place at secondary school, there will be very few remaining spaces within secondary schools across the city. There remain whole areas of the city without places in some year groups. There will be very few places in any year groups for pupils moving into the city or requiring a change of school.
“Where pupils are offered places in schools that are not preferences, or are some distance from home, this can affect behaviour and attendance. This can then result in increasing demand for special educational needs and alternative learning provision.”
Britain’s birth rate began to increase around 2003, rising to a peak in 2012 before falling again. The increased number of babies has left many councils across the country struggling a few years later to provide enough school places.
Two new schools are due to open this September in temporary sites. Oasis Academy Daventry Road will open on a temporary site at Oasis John Williams, with 180 places per year. Oasis Temple Quarter will open temporarily on the Oasis Brislington site, before relocating to Spring Street in Bedminster in January next year with 120 places — and then eventually will move to its permanent home on Silverthorne Lane behind Temple Meads.
Building work to make some high schools larger has been stalled, including at Brunel Academy and Orchard School. This is because of the ongoing economic situation, but also due to the complex contracts the council signed with private companies to build the schools in the first place, known as private finance initiatives (PFI).
Meanwhile, demand for primary school places in Bristol has fallen since a peak in 2016. St Barnabas C of E Primary, in Montpelier, will close in August despite protests and campaigns from parents to keep the school open. Also, the huge numbers of new homes being built across the city, especially in South Bristol, is “not yet impacting” demand for primary schools.
Ms Bhogal-Welsh said: “Some capital works at some schools, required as a result of the continued need to admit over Published Admission Numbers, are still to be completed. This is partly due to the current economic climate and partly due to the complexities of changing PFI contracts.
“The trend of a reduction in the number of pupils requiring a place in Reception continues. Offers were made on April 17, with 99 per cent of pupils being offered a preference school, and 92 per cent being offered their first preference.
“Following a peak in 2016, numbers requiring places at primary schools continue to fall and places will need to be managed to avoid large numbers of empty places. There are no indications that the falling birth rate will rise in the foreseeable future, and the delivery of new homes, particularly in South Bristol, has been slower than anticipated and is not yet impacting on demand for primary school places.”
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