The British Columbia election has turned out to be a nail-biter. Throughout the four-week campaign, the polls predicted a very close race between the incumbent NDP led by David Eby and a newly rejuvenated Conservative Party under the leadership of John Rustad. Those polls turned out to be accurate as no clear winner has emerged in the hours after British Columbians cast their ballots.
The B.C. Liberal Party, a right-of-centre amalgam of Liberal and Conservative voters federally that had ruled the province between 2001-2017, disappeared from the scene, resulting in a political realignment — New Democrats vs. Conservatives — and matching what has become the norm in Canada’s three other western provinces.
As I write this, the NDP leads or is elected in 46 seats, the Conservatives in 45, with the Green Party’s two elected members holding the balance of power. The results are so close in several ridings that it may be at least another week for outstanding mail ballots to come in and recounts to occur before knowing the definitive result.
Parallels to previous elections
In one way, the 2024 election is a repeat of the 2017 vote, when the B.C. Liberals and the NDP were just two seats apart. The Greens threw their three seats behind the NDP to pave the way for an NDP government. The same may well prove to be the case this time around once the dust has settled.
In another way, this election is reminiscent of 1952, when a newly led Social Credit party under W.A.C. Bennett came out of nowhere to topple the old-line Liberal and Conservative parties, edge out the CCF (the Co-operative Commonwealth Federation) — predecessor to today’s NDP — by a single seat and go on to rule the province for a full 20 years.
Read more: How the British Columbia election is being haunted by the ghosts of 1952
In 1951, Bennett had broken with his party, the Conservatives, to sit as an Independent MLA. Rustad had been turfed out of his party, the B.C. Liberals, to sit as an Independent MLA, before assuming the leadership of a B.C.’s dormant Conservative Party. The Conservatives had not held a seat in the provincial legislature for almost 50 years, and had last won a provincial election in 1928.
Yet in 2024, with 43.5 per cent of the popular vote compared to the NDP’s 44.5 per cent, Rustad’s party is a major contender for power.
Geographical and ideological divides
What the election results ultimately show is that there are two British Columbias. The NDP tends to dominate on the coast, with a clear majority of the seats in the Lower Mainland and on Vancouver Island. The Conservatives dominate the B.C. Interior of the province, with a fair sprinkling of suburban seats in the Lower Mainland as well.
Beyond the geographical divide lies a deeper ideological one. In some ways it parallels the old divide between a more free-enterprise oriented party and one with a stronger commitment to the welfare state. Rustad said as much in his speech on election night. But there is more to the story than that.
The NDP, after all, has become much more of a centrist party than it was previously, in particular when it governed the province under Dave Barrett between 1972 and 1975.
It’s no accident that in the 2024 election, no small number of federal Liberal supporters voiced their support for the NDP rather than the Conservatives. With respect to issues like gun control, protection of the environment, reconciliation with Indigenous Peoples or vaccine mandates during pandemics, their views align more closely with the NDP than the Conservatives.
The Conservatives, on the other hand, spoke to the frustrations many British Columbians feel in terms of the housing affordability crisis, the serious shortcomings in the province’s health-care system and the toxic drug crisis in B.C. cities. Eby admitted as much in his own election night speech.
The B.C. Conservatives’ call for change echoed what federal Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre has been saying at the federal level. Not surprisingly, support for the Conservatives provincially closely matches for support for the federal Conservatives in the province.
Governing from the centre
British Columbia is clearly polarized politically, a phenomenon we’re seeing even more distinctly south of the border and in various European countries.
The task of governing from the centre — on the assumption that the NDP and Greens reach a confidence-and-supply agreement — may therefore prove a more challenging one than before due to a much empowered Conservative opposition.
But had the Conservatives won a clear mandate to govern, they would have faced significant opposition from the more liberal-minded sections of the population given some of the party’s hard-line positions on unabashed resource development, Indigenous reconciliation and the role of private versus public providers in the health-care system.
Such is the state of play in Canada’s westernmost province.
Philip Resnick does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
This article was originally published on The Conversation. Read the original article.
