House prices are expected to be around £45,000 higher on average by 2028, as market demand and buying power recovers, according to a forecast.
Property adviser Savills, which released the research, said the market looks set to “bottom out” around the middle of next year.
Across Britain, the average property value will increase to £300,108 in 2028, marking a £45,521 or 17.9% increase from an average house price of £254,587 in 2023, according to Savills.
The average house price is projected to fall by 3.0% in 2024 but Savills said this will be followed by price increases in 2025, 2026, 2027 and 2028 as affordability pressures slowly ease.
Prime central London is expected to see the least downward pressure on prices next year, given much less reliance on mortgage debt and the relative value on offer to a range of wealthy domestic and international buyers.
Interest rates are expected to have peaked and the worst of the house prices falls look to be behind us, but the first cut to rates still looks to be some way off— Lucian Cook, Savills
Transactions are expected to remain at around 1.01 million in 2024, rising to 1.16 million per year at the end of the forecast period in 2028, as mortgage buyers gradually return to the market.
The research used data from Oxford Economics and Nationwide Building Society.
Lucian Cook, head of residential research at Savills, said: “Interest rates are expected to have peaked and the worst of the house prices falls look to be behind us, but the first cut to rates still looks to be some way off. This means continued affordability pressures are likely to result in further modest house price falls over the first half of 2024, resulting in a peak-to-trough house price adjustment in the order of minus 10%.
“The expectation of a gradual reduction in rates suggests a progressive restoration of buying power and steady recovery in demand.”
Here are the average house prices predicted by Savills by 2028, followed by the increase it predicts compared with 2023 house prices in cash terms. The forecasts apply to average prices in the secondhand property market. New-build property values may not move at the same rate:
– North East, £186,695, £32,940
– Wales, £239,663, £42,224
– North West, £241,944, £40,645
– Scotland, £206,850, £34,820
– Yorkshire and the Humber, £230,323, £38,692
– West Midlands, £283,954, £47,799
– East Midlands, £266,712, £43,759
– South West, £348,082, £52,797
– South East, £423,702, £60,642
– East of England, £397,060, £56,830
– London, £577,256, £70,376
