Trivia: When was the last time a WTA player won consecutive majors? Answer: Naomi Osaka, who took the COVID-19-era U.S. Open in 2020 and then won in Australia.
Osaka hasn’t done a lot of playing since then, one of the sport’s tentpoles lain horizontally. But now she’s back. She’s a mother. She is, by her own assertions, in a good place mentally. And for whatever ring rust might have accumulated, early indication is that she’s shaken it off. Apart from remaining the only player sharing a name with her birth city, Osaka is still a ferociously talented player, still only 26. And the state of her play will be a major story line—one that could last a day, one that could last two weeks.
Speaking of players going for a second consecutive major, Coco Gauff took the 2023 U.S. Open with a mix of offense and defense, humility and confidence. There may be no fig leaf concealing her forehand, the far less reliable of two wings. But over the last six months, few players have been able to pick on her weakness. And she now heads into a major, knowing that she can win seven matches, do so against the best players and do so at her home major, under maximal pressure. Why not run it back half a world away? Herewith, our women’s seeds report.
1. Iga Świątek
The top seed hasn’t had dazzling success Down Under (one semifinal and a few heat-induced capitulations). But she is so complete, so fit, so athletic and so potentially dominating that she is a contender—if not a favorite—at every event she enters. The cooler the temps, the better off she’ll be. Danger: Players who beat her at her last two majors—Jeļena Ostapenko and Elina Svitolina—are in her quadrant.
2. Aryna Sabalenka
Your defending champ returns to the scene of the breakthrough. Glass half-full: She kept winning throughout 2023, including six matches at the 2023 U.S. Open. Glass half-empty: There were assorted setbacks and strange disappearances—psychic chipped paint—including squandering a lead in the U.S. Open final, leading to this.
3. Elena Rybakina
A finalist last year—coming within a few games of winning her second major—and a big ball striker who has proven her top-five bona fides for two years now. Armed with perhaps the best serve post-Serena, surprisingly agile for a player who stands north of six feet and a Brisbane title to kick off the year—smoking Sabalenka in the final 6–3, 6–0!—makes her our favorite.
4. Coco Gauff
Since losing in the first round of Wimbledon—and, the correlation is undeniable, hiring Brad Gilbert—she’s simply been a different player. Fearless, patient, winning with athleticism but also emotional intelligence. For the first four years of her career the mantra was, “Her winning a major is a question of ‘when, not if.’” Now it’s, “Her winning a second major is ‘when, not if.’” Why not now?
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5. Jessica Pegula
All credit to her for the “second career,” the studiedly professional bearing and the resolute determination to be a top player. The existential question: Can she get beyond the fourth/QF round and genuinely compete for majors? Bonus points for having already served up one of the funnier moments in recent memory.
6. Ons Jabeur
Between the slick courts and the oppressive heat, not the ideal event for such a cagey player. (Her modest 7–6 career record in Melbourne attests to this.) A little career perspective is in order: She came to the 2020 Aussie Open ranked No. 78. (Talk about a player who, like Pegula, maxed out the second half of her 20s.) She has made three major finals in the last 18 months.
7. Markéta Šimková (Vondroušová)
Your guess is as good as hers. Not much of a track record in Melbourne. (She’s gone 4–3 since reaching a surprise semi in 2019). Then again, you could say the same about her modest past results auguring success at Wimbledon … and she won the damn title last summer. Apart from the sui generis lefty game and the shotmaking, you have to like any player who comes in armed with the knowledge that they can win seven straight matches.
8. Maria Sakkari
With the withdrawal of Karolína Muchová (who would have been a contender), Sakkari scores the critical top-eight seed slot. A Greek bearing gifts, she scored the biggest title of her career last autumn in Guadalajara, proof that the tennis fates work in weird ways, good things happen to nice people and, one hopes, a source of self-belief whose results don’t always keep pace with her game and athleticism. The gratuitous line goes here: Melbourne has the largest Greek population outside of Athens. Does this have actual bearing on results? Dubious.
9. Barbora Krejčková
Her first tournament in years without the added stress (or maybe synergy?) of being a top contender in doubles as well. Faltered to start the season. But not unlike felled countrywoman Muchová, she brings a lot of gears and athleticism to the party. Plus, she, like Šimková (Vondroušová), already has a major under her belt.
10. Beatriz Haddad Mai
The Brazilian is in the top-10 adjacent after a swell run in 2023 (Trivia: the last player to beat Osaka.) Big game, big personality and if she’s winning on the biggest stages, there’s big potential here.
11. Jeļena Ostapenko
Now back in the top 10 for the first time since 2018, the ultimate tennis blinkering agent, she can either beat the No. 1 player, or look utterly outclassed and lose in less than an hour. And that’s just the 2023 U.S. Open. Already a major winner (Roland Garros, 2017), the Latvian Lioness never bores us. Come for the handshakes, stay for the episodically brilliant tennis.
12. Qinwen Zheng
If you’re looking for a dark horse, you could do a lot worse. The Chinese slugger—now coached by Pere Riba—will be a top-10 player, potentially top five, by year’s end.
13. Liudmila Sansonova
Born on Veterans Day, she’s now edged into veteran territory. A 25-year-old Russian, she can hang with anyone on the right day. One of those players who can’t win a major (yet), but can impose her mark on a major draw.
14. Daria Kasatkina
Benefits from Belinda Bencic’s pregnancy absence. As a tennis player, few others have more gears and options. Few players generate less power on their serve. Hard, therefore, to see her getting through seven opponents with that punchless serve.
15. Veronika Kudermetova
Solid 11–20 player, does she have another level? Never been beyond Round 3 in Melbourne. Starts against Amanda Anisimova.
16. Caroline Garcia
A top-four seed last year. Now, lucky for her 16 spot. Not a threat to win, but a threat to reach Week 2.
Prefecture of Assorted Seeds 17–32
18. Victoria Azarenka
Not only 34, but has a 7-year-old son. Good for her for soldiering on. Never mind that it was a decade ago, she has won this event twice.
19. Elina Svitolina
Not just a sentimental favorite, but a player still capable of deep runs at majors. Coming off an Auckland final run.
20. Magda Linette
Former 2023 semifinalist gets a name check.
27. Emma Navarro
Seeded at a major for the first time. Note the sneaky high-ranking, top 20 without a major breakthrough yet. Could leave a top-20 player.
32. Leylah Fernandez
Former finalist at a hardcourt major. Will try to build on her Billie Jean King Cup heroics. (The female Alex de Minaur … who’s buying?)
Anne-Marie Sorvin/USA TODAY Sports
Dark-Horse Corral:
Hot take: There are more potential surprises in the 33–128 cohort than in the 17–32 seeds.
- Sonya Kenin: A winner (gulp) four years ago. Good for her for getting back after her ranking fell off a cliff. Alas, she draws the top seed.
- Karolína Plíšková: Former No.1 whose career highlights include beating Serena Williams in Melbourne.
- Mirra Andreeva: Reached the Australian Open in 2023 (She didn’t even win the damn tournament) … and imposed herself at majors and on the WTA tour.
- Sloane Stephens: Closer to the end of her career than the beginning. But still a threat on a given day/week.
- Danielle Collins: A finalist two years ago.
- Katie Boulter: Scores a 2024 top-five win over Pegula.
- Naomi Osaka: Her first major as a mother. A two-time winner here, she comes in with a big range of possibilities.
- Caroline Wozniacki: All former winners merit mention.
- Amanda Anisimova: Back after a self-imposed mental health break. Note her past success in Australia.
- Bianca Andreescu: All major champs merit mention. Sadly, 2019 feels like a long time ago. Loses so many tight matches … suggesting she is close to a breakthrough or suffers from a confidence deficit at the wrong times.
- Angelique Kerber: Her comeback has been bathed in a softer light than Osaka’s. Note: She, too, is a former champ.
First-round matches to watch: (And there are tons)
- Świątek vs. Kenin: the top seed versus a former champ.
- Collins vs. Kerber: former finalist versus former champ.
- Rybakina vs. Plíšková: last year’s finalist versus a former No.1.
- Garcia vs. Osaka: a former top-fiver versus a two-time champ.
- Sansonova vs. Anisimova: big chance for Anisimova to make a splashing return.
- Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova vs. Donna Vekić: two quality vets.
- Taylor Townsend vs. Paula Badosa: quite a contrast among two intriguing players.
- Upset special: Osaka def. Garcia, does that count? If not, Anisimova def. Kudermetova.
Predictions:
Doubles winners: Storm Hunter and Elise Mertens
Semis: Rybakina def. Ostapenko; Sabalenka def. Gauff
Final: Rybakina def. Sabalenka
Champion: Rybakina
